Cold Spell Discussion

[chionomaniac]

With Bella stagnant over our shores, it is often seen that surprises may occur with snow etc. O far here on the South coast we were forecast to have a dry night in a NW breeze, but a slight shift in the orientation of the low pressure has changed that, and now we have showers feeding in off the channel. Some wintriness has been reported, but it just goes to show how quickly things can change in this type of situation.

so never give up. A little colder and this could leave a surprise snowfall. And 850’s are dropping slowly over the coming days so keep aware

[Battleground Snow]

Looks a heavier band heading towards Wales than modelled on radar, hope it can hold some intensity

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Rollo]

Clear skies here in Newcastle, it’s been dry all day save for a couple of light rain showers this morning, I fell we will have to wait for a few days more to see the white stuff. Meanwhile parts of Durham have snow cover. temperature is currently 0.6c. have a good new year, Rollo.

[chionomaniac]

So we have frost on cars with showers moving inland. Just 6 hours ago I can’t remember seeing this forecast, though granted I haven’t checked every short range forecast over the last 24 hours. From being dry met office app now has showers forecast from 12 to 3 am. This is exactly the kind of surprise that is unexpected in this type of set up. Granted it is probably rain - but just not forecast.

[Atleastitwillbemild]

I'm not impressed with the forecasts for this cold spell as of yet. Yes it would lovely to see some snow, even if it is a brief shower with a light dusting on cars for a few hours for us on the Marlborough downs but I remember what even fairly ordinary cold snaps used to be like. Even in the supposedly poor winters of the 90's and 00's it would be fairly common to get a week of completely clear high pressure where day after day would be clear and sunny and the nights would get colder and colder by succession, building up on the patches of frost that had stuck around in shaded places throughout the day so that by the time it got to the 4th or 5th day the night temps would be pushing - 5 in the city. - 6/7 in the country easily.

This wasn't anything unusal even in the poor winters duing a short cold snap and the nights would be gin clear with not a cloud in the sky. For the past few winters all of our supposedly cold highs have been repeatedly contaminated by low level cloud and prevented any real frost. This winter so far has been really frustrating for that. Evenings that started off with clear skies and plummeting temps were suddenly ruined by a gradual clouding over by midnight leaving us with tiny patches of frozen dew or no frost at all and temps of 3c. Ive looked at the modelling for min temps up to the 5th of Jan and see that for the majority of Southern central E the lowest we're looking at is -1 or even -2 at a push.  This wouldn't even qualify as a cold snap as little as 10 years ago.  Shows how despetate we've become where the prize calf has been slaughtered to celebrate week of -1 night temps and sleet. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Atleastitwillbemild

[Stu_London]

raining in Tunbridge Wells - which is slightly disappointing as it kind of felt cold enough for at least a bit of sleetiness

[Eskimo]

Here's my thinking. The low is currently across southwest scotland is forecast to move across south wales before exiting around Dorset. 

The eastern most extent of the precipitation boundary appears to be somewhere between Glasgow and Edinburgh as its struggling to push any further east as the low sinks south east. Based on this, it's likely the eastern most extent will follow roughly the line drawn on the map. Whether there will be any precipitation around is anyone's guess, just that I don't think it will be much further east than the black line.

[Rollo]

We have to deal with what we have,a warming world, I do believe that this winter the North Sea SST’s are abnormally high and given the right Synoptics we may well for a few years find snow easier to come by, remember any continuation of Northerlies will see a cooling down.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Here's my thinking. The low is currently across southwest scotland is forecast to move across south wales before exiting around Dorset. 

The eastern most extent of the precipitation boundary appears to be somewhere between Glasgow and Edinburgh as its struggling to push any further east as the low sinks south east. Based on this, it's likely the eastern most extent will follow roughly the line drawn on the map. Whether there will be any precipitation around is anyone's guess, just that I don't think it will be much further east than the black line.

The band in the Irish sea is still moving east though.

[Battleground Snow]

Cold for the foreseeable according to the GEFS, mean pulled up at the end by some extreme mild members too

 

 

[chionomaniac]

I do reckon that 850’s would be lower 40 years ago with these Synoptics but that is another discussion for another thread. Main thing is - can we get any surprises out of this so far modest but increasingly cold spell

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The band in the Irish sea is still moving east though.

I know? But my point is the band will likely not go beyond the black line due to the trajectory of the low. 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The band in the Irish sea is still moving east though.

I was thinking that too, but it is modelled to move more SSE than east

Edited December 27, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Jayfromcardiff]

Does anyone think the South Wales valleys will see any snow tonight? I'm not sure it's cold enough.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Does anyone think the South Wales valleys will see any snow tonight? I'm not sure it's cold enough.

Possible if it comes down heavier than forecast, probably wouldn't hang around very long though

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

I know? But my point is the band will likely not go beyond the black line due to the trajectory of the low. 

there was a suggestion of some wintry ppn around the London area tomorrow morning on the BBC Countrywide forecast. Not that they are particularly accurate - but I think maybe 40-50 miles east of your ppn extent line is possible.

[Kasim Awan]

18 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Does anyone think the South Wales valleys will see any snow tonight? I'm not sure it's cold enough.

Yeah I recon so above 150m inland

[Met4Cast]

When I was looking at the models this morning, there was nothing suggesting the SE would see showers tonight. The 15z UKV and the 12z hi-res models began picking up on the idea. 

Dew points are around freezing across much of the region.. anyone seeing sleet/snow?

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

When I was looking at the models this morning, there was nothing suggesting the SE would see showers tonight. The 15z UKV and the 12z hi-res models began picking up on the idea. 

Dew points are around freezing across much of the region.. anyone seeing sleet/snow?

Reports that "it's trying to snow".

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

When I was looking at the models this morning, there was nothing suggesting the SE would see showers tonight. The 15z UKV and the 12z hi-res models began picking up on the idea. 

Dew points are around freezing across much of the region.. anyone seeing sleet/snow?

Rain shower here but there is a slightly heavier burst on the way - so that might be more promising

[Eskimo]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

When I was looking at the models this morning, there was nothing suggesting the SE would see showers tonight. The 15z UKV and the 12z hi-res models began picking up on the idea. 

Dew points are around freezing across much of the region.. anyone seeing sleet/snow?

Dew points rising unfortunately. Unlikely the southeast will see any snow. 


 

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Dew points rising unfortunately. Unlikely the southeast will see any snow. 


 

Feels warmer than a couple of hours again too

[abruzzi spartan]

Was -1c about 2 hours ago here in the Surrey Hills.  Ice on the cars etc.  Now +2c and raining at 110m asl.

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

When I was looking at the models this morning, there was nothing suggesting the SE would see showers tonight. The 15z UKV and the 12z hi-res models began picking up on the idea. 

This was the UKV from Friday's 21Z

[Allseasons-Si]

Is this area developing a secondary low?

the PPN seems to be tracking further ENE!

the main low is over N Ireland at the minute.

Wind Map - Britain Observations

WWW.XCWEATHER.CO.UK

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si