Cold Spell Discussion

[pureasthedriven]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Best December snowfall since December 2010, surpassing Boxing Day 2014 evening snow.

Started about 3.30am, all surfaces covered

 

Love that video! Almost like being there Where is that? No location on phone. 

[Updated_Weather]

MetO have now issued a weather warning for Wednesday - Thursday

[Midlander]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

MetO have now issued a weather warning for Wednesday - Thursday

 

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO have now issued a weather warning for Wednesday - Thursday

Interesting

[Weather-history]

38 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Love that video! Almost like being there Where is that? No location on phone. 

Irlam, 9 miles SW of Manchester 

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

Interesting

It’ll likely change nearer the time to a smaller area - but it’ll need watching

[pureasthedriven]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Irlam, 9 miles SW of Manchester 

Thanks. Makes sense. 

[Tim Bland]

20 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO have now issued a weather warning for Wednesday - Thursday

Hmm not seen many models show this yet They talk about a low coming up from south west. I’ve only seen troughs in the flow coming down from north east. Must be a new development?

[Tim Bland]

Perhaps they are referring to UKV and covering themselves in case it goes further north

[I remember Atlantic 252]

trough from NW on GEM model, looks to be very west and south

[Met4Cast]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm not seen many models show this yet They talk about a low coming up from south west. I’ve only seen troughs in the flow coming down from north east. Must be a new development?

Probably based on the UKV which has signalled this for a little while now.. FAX charts seem to agree with too

[Met4Cast]

Here's my take on today tonight. Valid Today 12pm > Tomorrow 6am.

Snow showers feeding into Scotland. Pembrokeshire dangler perhaps giving some flurries though I suspect mostly rain/sleet to lower levels. A more organised band of showers moves in from the east around Yorkshire tonight & moves southwards through the Midlands. Uncertainty how far S these get before dying out, but could give a few cm across the hills.

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Probably based on the UKV which has signalled this for a little while now.. FAX charts seem to agree with too

Is the latest UKV the one I posted above or has there been another which puts the precip further north (as per warning) ? 
 

ps this is what I call a ‘snow event’ ! 

[Met4Cast]

Beautiful channel low on the 06z ARPEGE 

Another forecasting nightmare..

[philglossop]

Well even here, the weather has taken its toll, and there's only 2 football games still on the SWPL today. Choice between St Austell or Dartmouth.  I'll take my chance at Dartmouth as if snow hits East Cornwall ill be in trouble - don't fancy Penpillock hill out of St Blazey ( that caused chaos in 2018) 

[chionomaniac]

Looking at the differences in all the short range models I wouldn’t want to be putting a forecast together in the next few days. Pot luck I’d call it!

[Catacol]

Anyone wanting to try and grow a bit of teleconnection knowledge on the current pattern, this tweet thread from Griteater is superb. Several things in there that we have been noting - favourable MJO, impact of pacific jet, Niña/Nino forcing, forthcoming SSW. Key conclusion - he sees no shift in the broad trop pattern until second half of January earliest, and even then it may not come. And still we have the SSW to factor in...

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps they are referring to UKV and covering themselves in case it goes further north

Here's the ECM too, but must keep in mind this is much further north than all the other models.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here's the ECM too, but must keep in mind this is much further north than all the other models.

Probably a good thing..

These channel features tend to correct southwards as the time approaches. I think it was 2013 when a channel low corrected southwards & absolutely pasted the channel islands.

[Zak M]

Looks like it snowed a lot in Hartlebury. Beautiful drone footage.

[damianslaw]

Time to look at the FAX charts, last two winters I barely bothered as they come into their own when there are snow prospects, good for mesoscale features, trough forecasting. Over the next 3 days troughs and fronts galore draped over the UK in different places, can see reason for tonight's warning a trough to the NE anchoring down through N England on a SW trajectory, then we have a low pressure system moving into SW approaches with associated front, this shown to hit S Wales and possibly CS england but then retract south with sub 528 dam air chasing it away, boundaries between snow and rain very fine. On Thursday some sort of trough feature draping itself down through N England becoming unstuck, this one not being mentioned in forecasts, but if verifies I would think would bring further snow, so expect more warnings for New Year Eve on top of the southern one. 

[Stu_London]

Sleet in Tunbridge Wells - an improvement on last nights rain!

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Probably a good thing..

These channel features tend to correct southwards as the time approaches. I think it was 2013 when a channel low corrected southwards & absolutely pasted the channel islands.

It was indeed. Living in Somerset, I cried....

[saintkip]

Basingstoke, snow capital of Hampshire

[pureasthedriven]

44 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Sleet in Tunbridge Wells - an improvement on last nights rain!

Sleet here in Gatwick too. Still think a short spell of back edge wet snow possible if ppn intensity can maintain.