Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Aiden2012]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yes, unfortunately, things are too close for comfort right now. We are very close to hitting the jackpot, 10-20cm (below 150m), 20-30cm (150m+)

If the chart I just illustrated was 100% bang on we would  be looking at heavy sleet to 2 cm below 150m and 2-5cm 150m-250m.... Which would be a travesty when things were almost nailed on last night. 

Well fingers crossed eh

[Craigers]

UPGRADE ALERT

[Tim A]

GEM on the otherhand is pretty much perfect for our region, definitely not too far North. in fact North Midlands the absolute sweet spot. 

Arpege great too. 

 

Can't really see how far the 0C isotherm gets North between 72 hours and 96 on the UKMO but knife edge. 

 

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Craigers said:

UPGRADE ALERT

I saw that belter but hard to get excited with the gfs and ukmo looking dicey. 

[Harsh Climate]

ukmo 12z again low too far north, you can perhaps get away with being on the right side of the 0 dam line but once ya get to +1 above ya in big trouble... Obviously -5 dam line optimal.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

Sorry but that is absolute ...... We need a swing back by tomorrow morning or it could go very wrong.

[Aiden2012]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Sorry but that is absolute ...... We need a swing back by tomorrow morning or it could go very wrong.

[The PIT]

Looking like a blink and you cold snap for us. GFS/UKMO push the mild air quickly north on Thursday so a Snow to rain jobby for us North Yorkshire the place to be by the looks of it. Rather cold Saturday before turning milder for all on Sunday. Hopefully the low will say nay I want to go a bit further south.

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by The PIT

[Empire Of Snow]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looking like a blink and you cold snap for us. GFS/UKMO push the mild air quickly north on Thursday so a Snow to rain jobby for us North Yorkshire the place to be by the looks of it. Rather cold Saturday before turning milder for all on Sunday. Hopefully the low will say nay I want to go a bit further south.

 

Yup. Too early. Anything can happen. I've seen a front suddenly stalling over Harrogate a few years ago giving us a snow event of 30cm. This was literally in nowcast with METO trying to keep up with the situation. 

This time I'll be happy even with 10cm. 

[terrier]

So the ukmo & gfs looks Like a quick transition to rain on Thursday. Obviously time for a shift south. But all this started to unravel yesterday morning in the output. And as many of us know once it starts to trend the wrong way. 9 times out of 10 it’s goes that way ah well roll on the lighter nights & spring. 

[joggs]

Another joke of a cold spell.

We're cursed. 

Bring on spring now

[The PIT]

Just now, terrier said:

So the ukmo & gfs looks Like a quick transition to rain on Thursday. Obviously time for a shift south. But all this started to unravel yesterday morning in the output. And as many of us know once it starts to trend the wrong way. 9 times out of 10 it’s goes that way ah well roll on the lighter nights & spring. 

Only if it's mild.

 

[winterof79]

Before we all run to the cliff

The Output isn't that bad and this is UKMO 

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Before we all run to the cliff

The Output isn't that bad and this is UKMO 

That UKMO is terrible, Snow thursday night quickly turning to rain.

[terrier]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

That UKMO is terrible, Snow thursday night quickly turning to rain.

Agree it’s looking wet rather than white. roll on spring warmth.

[winterof79]

These aren't the end of the world either ill leave you all to look at the dark side.

 

So what if it goes pear shaped

"Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Very cold, with severe frosts overnight. Largely dry with bright or sunny spells on Wednesday. Increasing chance of disruptive snow and strong winds on Thursday and Friday."

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Mon 6 Mar 2023

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by winterof79

[Tim A]

There has always been massive uncertainty about Thursday and Friday.   Yes there have been the odd run that shows us in the sweet spot (So does 12Z Arpege and GEM) but loads have pushed the mild air through eventually Friday too. 

Ensembles show the massive uncertainty.  I never expected us to stay in the cold air completely but with some luck hopefully we can get a good snowfall with it maybe only turning milder for a few hours Friday before turning colder again (before another warm up Sat/Sun). 

 

[winterof79]

ECM

[Tim A]

ECM 0z had the snow turning to rain for us whereas as above the 12z has the low further South and doesn't.  So an upgrade if you take ECM in isolation.  Still overall unresolved  but hopefully ECM 12z is nearer to the mark.

 

I want to see some runs showing it too far North and some too far South as hopefully the average will be a direct hit. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Tim A

[cheese]

Can’t even get excited even if it all stays as snow tbh, just sick of it feeling cold. 

[Craigers]

Nice happy bunch in here

[NorthYorksWeather]

Bit of snow over top of Moors this afternoon whilst at work. Snow showers now making a b-line for the Yorkshire Coast, quite a bit of snow likely overnight  for the same folk in December who saw a lot of snow around the Whitby/Scarborough area. Really has been a great winter for those on the coast with a few inches that lasted a week in December, a covering in January and some more tonight.

[yaffle]

I'm back at work on Friday so i'm hoping for a decent covering Friday into Saturday. Not expecting much for Strensall though.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Quick look at tonights snow shower forecast from the WRF NMM.

Several inches likely for the parts of the North York Moors and Yorkshire Wolds.

I feel I might be a bit too far west to catch any showers as the winds are slightly west of north but happy to be proven wrong.

Few members on here possibly seeing some snow @Jeremy Shockey @Wold Topper @Aiden2012 @reef 

1 minute ago, yaffle said:

I'm back at work on Friday so i'm hoping for a decent covering Friday into Saturday. Not expecting much for Strensall though.

Fylingdales will be fun tonight!

[yaffle]

1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

Fylingdales will be fun tonight!

I know and I'm missing it! There were about 10 flakes Saturday morning. Fingers crossed though for Friday.