Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[fazzafarrand]

14 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

The Current rains have 'upped' tomorrows peak river level forecast from the Environment Agency to 4.15m (whilst the plot is still on the up & up) 

I do hope the projections are based on the old river channels performance and not this, as of now,  'untested' enlarged channel!

2.52m measured here from 2.13m 4hrs ago so creeping up

[iand61]

18 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

The Current rains have 'upped' tomorrows peak river level forecast from the Environment Agency to 4.15m (whilst the plot is still on the up & up) 

I do hope the projections are based on the old river channels performance and not this, as of now,  'untested' enlarged channel!

Yeah the top courses of the shiny new stonework may get a bit muddied before this lot clears through but at least the flood defences are finished now.

just have to hope the canal behaves itself.

[Gray-Wolf]

7 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Yeah the top courses of the shiny new stonework may get a bit muddied before this lot clears through but at least the flood defences are finished now.

just have to hope the canal behaves itself.

The way they've managed the channel, both on the approach to the new bridge and then the exit on toward to other bridge? makes me wonder if they fully modelled the way the River acts once through this huge enlargement in capacity and back into the 'old channel' dimensions?

Sure it will 'drop' the River levels on the approach to ,and then under, the two spans of the new Bridge but if that includes 'extra waters' that were being slowed/held back by the channel then it will be fun on the approach to the old Bridge/tributary when all that tries to fit back into the old channel!

I guess I'll get to see just how things work over the next 48 hrs!

[The PIT]

Davis reckons 11.2mm since midnight.

Talking of flood defences I was quite surprised on the Don at meadow hall they built to the 2007 levels which of course were overtopped in 2019.  Sort of makes you wonder what the thinking was at the time.

[Gray-Wolf]

Walsden (between Todmorden/Littleborough) sounded their flood sirens 2 hrs back. They are not currently flooding but they know it is coming and would rather 'rouse' folk to action than leave it 'till later....

Keep Safe Folk!

[Winter Cold]

9.5c at 11pm in January

Disgusting! 

[Cheese Rice]

5 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

A quick scan through the data and looks like 60% are showing lying snow overnight wednesday into thursday and 40% no snow. That's in yorkshire as a whole

GFS/Icon - no lying snow

Euro 4 and Aprege - some lying snow

Netweather NMM - 4 and 12 and UKV, In favour of some lying snow

Even where they are showing snow does look likely to be the far west of our region most favoured, with a few spots of snow to the north and far east.

 

In my opinion most lying snow looks reserved for the hills and perhaps temporarily to lower ground. I don't expect this massive rain band that keeps pepping up to turn to snow over our region at any time, that will be reserved for parts of scotland and northern most parts of northern england. 

The wrap around of showers as the low deepens and pulls in a north westerly, as it departs is where the risk comes from.

In our favour you can see the deep blues and purple on the 500 uppers, this would allow for a quick cooling once a shower hits and allow falling snow, the problem will be getting it to settle or stick around if it actually achieves the second part. Even with favourable dew point. Reason being, 0 degree isotherm of around 5/600m and 850 uppers of -4 just won't cut the mustard. Once a shower clears away the temperature will quickly rise above freezing, causing any snow cover to quickly melt. Especially with such strong winds, the cold air will be greatly mixed as winds coming off mild irish sea. A fair few members on here will know only too well what they can do! And that's with uppers near -10 

Buy sunset thursday I'm going for a dusting to 1cm - 50m+

200m+ In a few places 1-2cm 

300m+ In a few places 2-5cm.

These estimates mostly apply to west/ north and few isolated parts of east yorkshire. Mostly on a whole there will be no lying snow.

 

 

Where do you Access the UKV?

[Badgers01]

40 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Walsden (between Todmorden/Littleborough) sounded their flood sirens 2 hrs back. They are not currently flooding but they know it is coming and would rather 'rouse' folk to action than leave it 'till later....

Keep Safe Folk!

That is horrible to hear stay safe and best wishes ...

[fazzafarrand]

Still going up more heavy bands tonight but suggestions over heavier bands tomorrow through the day 

[Harsh Climate]

6 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

Where do you Access the UKV?

It's on netweather extra

[Aaron Roberts]

7 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Walsden (between Todmorden/Littleborough) sounded their flood sirens 2 hrs back. They are not currently flooding but they know it is coming and would rather 'rouse' folk to action than leave it 'till later....

Keep Safe Folk!

Oh no! The rivers have risen considerably, hopefully it will move off sooner rather than later. Keep safe all.

[Aaron Roberts]

Brearley and hoo hole are into the flooding range now and the Ryburn in Sowerby Bridge is into that range now.

Looking at the radar, it looks like we are in for a period of heavy rain. It isn't boding well!

[LeeSnowFan]

woke around 2am and it was very heavy rain still raining now but calmed abit

[The PIT]

Showery night and 16.7mm in 24 hours.  Rain looks like it'll be more persistent today radar not showing any really heavy echoes at the moment. So probably roughly the same amount today.

[fazzafarrand]

Well the 2 areas measured on the lower Calder are either well over or very close as seen on the below

Birkwood well over and Methley close

[Winter Cold]

Certainly looks like a wetter day to come today. Big area of rain coming up from the SW now. Let's see if it maintains strength and structure.

Sorry to read about some rivers high and sirens already. Keep safe!

[fazzafarrand]

18 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

Well the 2 areas measured on the lower Calder are either well over or very close as seen on the below

Birkwood well over and Methley close

Seems better if that’s a phrase higher stretch of the Calder 

[Craigers]

Looking like tonight into Thursday early hours have upgraded slightly. Risk of a slight covering 100m+ but not sure it will last. Could be more surprises too.

ECMWF

ARPEGE

GFS

Gfs Para trending this way now too which gives me hope for East Yorkshire for February.

[Jeremy Shockey]

 Icon 6z

The angle of the pivoting front in the early hours of Thur morning looks well placed for Yorkshire according to Icon 6z  ( not too far North ) 

Snow for some if the dew points are conducive and the front is moving slowly enough for the cold air to " catch up "

[Gray-Wolf]

As I suspected the channel monitor here (temporary site) does seem to be constantly 'updating' downward the river heights in the forecast section

Since yesterday projections have all shot up to over 4m but each update drops the prediction as the 'new data' from the station gets feathered into the programme

As you can see by the plot from last night only small increases in River height were noted even though it rained heavy most of the night?

Now , even with a big spell of heavy rain ahead, the predicted levels have dropped to below 4m...

Phew! it all seems to be working?

 

River level information for River Calder at Mytholmroyd Temporary site - GOV.UK

FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK

---

Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

 

[The PIT]

Rainfall moved away north of us again so looks like light stuff once again.

[Slysi100]

Quiet in here this morning.

Heavy rain in Barnsley gonna last all day by the looks. Anyone live in the Hebden Bridge area? Wonder how things are looking in that neck of the woods? 

[joggs]

Parts of the region should get some beefy wintry showers over the next 3 days or so.

[LeeSnowFan]

it's been heavy rain all morning here and still going

[Love Snow]

Heavy blustery rain here it’s awful outside.