Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Love Snow]

Torrential rain here if only it was snow  

[The PIT]

Where's our weather warning 19mm overnight still raining. The ground saturated and we had an amber warning for 7mm not that long ago. The inconsistency of the mets warning system reveals it weakness.

Local forecast having none the snow event for Saturday showing it staying dry. Hopefully it will change as the goes on.

[winterof79]

No chance of Snow this weekend another bust as last night was. 

[SouthYorks]

13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

No chance of Snow this weekend another bust as last night was. 

I’m with you on this.  I think it will be a miracle now if we see anything this weekend.

GFS now has the snow furthest North with it scraping into South Yorkshire before returning South and fizzling out.  ECM and ICON are a bit further South with snow making it Derbyshire.  GFS para and Arpege have the snow barely reaching Birmingham.

[Jeremy Shockey]

roll on Feb 6/7 and the possibility of something very cold from the NE or E  ( that is just about the only scenario that will deliver for Hull and Beverley nowadays )

[Craigers]

There's going to be surprises today and tomorrow for Saturdays snow fall!

Icon 00z has trended further north!

[Winter Cold]

Hope so craigers! 

One thing that's annoying me is that the met website has us around 3c sat and sun which is too high for snow. Then 4 and 5 early next week. I want snow that sticks around for a few days. That's the one thing missing from this winter so far I feel!

Let's hope the end of next week starts to deliver the beast!

[Bradowl]

57 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

I’m with you on this.  I think it will be a miracle now if we see anything this weekend.

GFS now has the snow furthest North with it scraping into South Yorkshire before returning South and fizzling out.  ECM and ICON are a bit further South with snow making it Derbyshire.  GFS para and Arpege have the snow barely reaching Birmingham.

I've only seen forecast on BBC news this morning but Sunday looks our best bet with another system coming in. 

[SouthYorks]

6z ICON and GFS both have the ppn on Saturday slightly further North, although ICON seems to limit snow to higher ground only.  GFS is more bullish with more wide spread snow at lower levels but South and West Yorkshire are on the very edge of snow, so looking only light at the moment.  Another move 50 miles North over next couple of days would bring an improvement in snow chances.

GFS para still has the Northern extent around Birmingham.

[LeeSnowFan]

10 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

6z ICON and GFS both have the ppn on Saturday slightly further North, although ICON seems to limit snow to higher ground only.  GFS is more bullish with more wide spread snow at lower levels but South and West Yorkshire are on the very edge of snow, so looking only light at the moment.  Another move 50 miles North over next couple of days would bring an improvement in snow chances.

GFS para still has the Northern extent around Birmingham.

keep moving north wipe the smirk off the southerners lol all that gloating in mod thread making me stomach funny lol

[adrianh]

Looks like the front will stall too far south of us again on Saturday but the models always seem to handle these battle ground scenarios with a large degree of uncertainty so perhaps we'll get lucky.  Further snow chances on Tuesday. All marginal of course but as we've seen, they can deliver!

[Whitby.2008]

Snow line about 250 metres on the north York moors this morning 

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, Craigers said:

There's going to be surprises today and tomorrow for Saturdays snow fall!

Icon 00z has trended further north!

Garbage model

[LeeSnowFan]

Steve M just posted this on another site

Given the current trending from all 06z suites I would suggest that the arome above may end up around 50-100 miles further south -

At this stage Birmingham seems the Northern extent however this could transpose more towards Oxfordshire...

[Yorkshirepudding]

@Scott Ingham hope you and your mother are keeping well buddy, Just wanted to say you may just get your epic winter prediction, given a few weeks later than expected but it’s game on going into February. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it but it’s definitely moving and pointing towards a decent cold spell with “Plenty” of snow chances.

[LeeSnowFan]

South & West Yorks

An area of rain pushing in from the southwest through the early morning will readily turn to snow in places as it encounters colder air. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in how far north the rain and snow will get, before the band stalls and starts to move south again as it eases. 3-7 cm of snow is possible to low levels with the potential for 10-15 cm over high ground (above 200-300 m), mainly in Wales and the West Midlands. There is a very low chance of perhaps as much 20 cm over highest parts of the Shropshire and Snowdonia.

 

Between 03:00 (UTC) on Sat 30 Jan 2021 and 18:00 (UTC) on Sat 30 Jan 2021

Edited January 28, 2021 by LeeSnowFan

[Craigers]

Don't be too disappointed if Saturdays event misses us. Next slider on Tuesday is trending south meaning the whole of Yorkshire could be in the cold air for full snow potential making the overall evolution primed for a colder outlook. Getting interesting now ✌

[fazzafarrand]

I pointing more to this 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cold but often sunny through the weekend and Monday with a few wintry showers possible, mainly early on Saturday and again through Monday. Widespread overnight frosts.

[adrianh]

Arpege/GFS 06z is suggesting the snow may get into Yorkshire on Saturday morning.  Euro 4 06z says it won't. I suspect we'll be on the edge of it at best but still time for a shift northwards (or south to completely put us out of the picture!)

[Yorkshirepudding]

I would be very surprised if that system on Saturday makes its way this far north especially for my location at the northern western tip of West Yorkshire, although it’s not a bad thing as it means we should get the colder air in quicker. I’d expect it stall over north midlands at best perhaps our southern tip may get a dusting as it stalls and rotates back down south. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and it stalls over my location lol meaning our entire region would be in play but that’s just wishful thinking but not impossible so not to be ruled out completely either. These types of set ups though almost always scoot south of our region as the cold air try’s to push in from the north and east. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Yorkshirepudding

[LeeSnowFan]

Steve M says this

 

The latest UKMO raw data suggests it never gets near leeds-

At this stage I would go with the stall out somewhere between Oxford & Brum.

[Jeremy Shockey]

At least I managed a bit of skating on frozen fields on Monday early morning !

[SouthYorks]

Meto warning area and wording seems to align pretty closely with GFS/ICON 6z and ECM 0z runs, rather than 6z para and Arpege.  Final area won’t be pinned down by the models and I think Saturday is going to be another day of Radar watching and it will be a nowcast situation to know the Northern extent of the snow.  

Early Feb is starting to look very interesting,!  I’m now more interested in getting some very cold air from the East with snow showers and streamers rather than the more marginal slider events we have seen give some snow in various locations over the last few weeks.

[fazzafarrand]

When did all this rain fall or is it snow melt also?

 

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, fazzafarrand said:

When did all this rain fall or is it snow melt also?

 

In Barnsley, it absolutely hammered it down overnight.  It woke me 3 or 4 times it was coming down so hard being blown onto the window.  It was at its worst here around 3.30-4.30am, but there were other periods as well.