Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Craigers]

Each upgrade keeps it more as snow so it might never change to rain at this rate!

[The PIT]

No upgrades in the reliable time period more like downgrades. So now probably dry until Monday night which all depends on the cold uppers not being pushed away before the rain gets here. If they don't should be fun.

Lala land likes the easterly although the deep cold shifts around further north or further south. It's been a fairly constant feature but people who've been on these forums a bit longer will remember the failed beast from the east. Here the beast was being tracked all the way down to T120 then all the models ditched it overnight. So still far out to be taken seriously and best regarded as eye candy. Indeed all the models are showing all the decision skills of our Bumbling Boris on a good day.

[Empire Of Snow]

22 minutes ago, The PIT said:

No upgrades in the reliable time period more like downgrades. So now probably dry until Monday night which all depends on the cold uppers not being pushed away before the rain gets here. If they don't should be fun.

Lala land likes the easterly although the deep cold shifts around further north or further south. It's been a fairly constant feature but people who've been on these forums a bit longer will remember the failed beast from the east. Here the beast was being tracked all the way down to T120 then all the models ditched it overnight. So still far out to be taken seriously and best regarded as eye candy. Indeed all the models are showing all the decision skills of our Bumbling Boris on a good day.

For me everything beyond 72h is just FI. I'd wait at least until Sunday runs for Tuesday. It's quite positive though that METO issued a warning so early. I can't remember when was the last time they issued a warning that goes way beyond the somehow reliable frame of 3 days forecast. 

[Craigers]

Matching up with the mets warning on ECM 12z

[Winter Cold]

Let's hope the ECM 12z is totally wrong after this though! Oh dear lol!!

[Adam lufc]

well well well.

[Aiden2020]

What’s happened 

[Aiden2020]

Ohhh just looked at the ecm I now realise what’s wrong

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, Craigers said:

Matching up with the mets warning on ECM 12z

ECM gives us 6 hours of snow Tuesday but then it all goes Pete Tong and the beasterly is off!  Let’s hope it comes back onboard on it’s 0z run...

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Suicide watch on the mod thread... Couple of shifts going

Yup ECM has ditched the easterly.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Winter Cold said:

Let's hope the ECM 12z is totally wrong after this though! Oh dear lol!!

It's not the bad still cold but no beast. Could be back tomorrows run.

[Empire Of Snow]

Does anybody know if models data is affected due to the various lockdowns and limited aviation traffic? I haven't checked the actual verification stats this winter but I have a feeling that they must have taken a hit especially after the 92h mark. 

[Adam lufc]

interseting n snowy gfs mon/tues. thankfully atm.

[SouthYorks]

ICON 18z continuing to show snow for Tuesday although distribution and intensity is a bit different to the awesome 6z, which is only to be expected at this range.  It does however then go on to turn to rain before colder air returns and what is left of the ppn turns back to snow.

GFS is an improvement from 12z, and is similar to ICON although with less snow and rain sooner.

Edited January 29, 2021 by SouthYorks

[SouthYorks]

GFS // is similar to ICON and better from a snow perspective than GFS.  The ppn still turns to rain with what looks like a temp warm up on Wednesday before cold air returns from the North East on Thursday.

Edited January 29, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Cheese Rice]

Could be a major snow event Tuesday all the way into Thursday.

Still a bit up in the air but potential for the deepest snowfall in a long time. 

[SouthYorks]

3 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Could be a major snow event Tuesday all the way into Thursday.

Still a bit up in the air but potential for the deepest snowfall in a long time. 

I think if we are to see snow Tuesday to Thursday we need an adjustment so that the ppn doesn’t push quite so far North to Scotland, as it erodes the cold in our region.  At this range we’ll likely see many adjustments over next few days, so still all to play for!

[bryan629]

Hmmmm..... Is it just me or has the Icon upgraded the snow potential from last evening. 

Just scrolling through from when it starts to snow in Yorkshire to when it just about clears away T81 to T111 works out at around 30 hours worth. 

Could it be the second wave catches up with the first wave a lot quicker ? 

Tuesday also look a lot heavier precipitation too 

       

[fazzafarrand]

2 questions for me today

is the band moving NE going to carry on?

raft of showers coming in from East off N Sea going to continue as I thought today was going to be dry??

any thoughts please

[SouthYorks]

17 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Hmmmm..... Is it just me or has the Icon upgraded the snow potential from last evening. 

Just scrolling through from when it starts to snow in Yorkshire to when it just about clears away T81 to T111 works out at around 30 hours worth. 

Could it be the second wave catches up with the first wave a lot quicker ? 

Tuesday also look a lot heavier precipitation too 

       

Yep, that was my assessment as well having viewed ICON this morning.  Arpege seems to be an improvement as well but snow not so intense as ICON, but longevity is better than it was on yesterdays runs.  GFS, GFSP and ECM still not so good though.  Plenty of time for change (in either direction)!

[SouthYorks]

5 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

2 questions for me today

is the band moving NE going to carry on?

raft of showers coming in from East off N Sea going to continue as I thought today was going to be dry??

any thoughts please

I think the man band has just about reached it’s Northern extent, and I think we’ll now start to see it lose intensity and start to slip back South East.  
 

Showers look interesting and weren’t really picked up by major models although last nights NMM did show this.  I don’t think we’ll get the required intensity for anything to settle even if anything falls out of the sky today.

[The PIT]

So close but so far yet again

[Craigers]

Metoffice have upgraded Tuesdays and Wednesdays snow potential.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Monday frosty start, then dry with sunny spells. Tuesday there is potential for a spell of heavy snow, with significant accumulations. Wednesday cold, with a mix of rain or snow.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sat 30 Jan 2021

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Metoffice have upgraded Tuesdays and Wednesdays snow potential.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Monday frosty start, then dry with sunny spells. Tuesday there is potential for a spell of heavy snow, with significant accumulations. Wednesday cold, with a mix of rain or snow.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sat 30 Jan 2021

Ukv 3z definitely in agreement, another snow event looking increasingly likely at this stage.

[Craigers]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Ukv 3z definitely in agreement, another snow event looking increasingly likely at this stage.

Thanks Paul that's a big improvement for Yorkshire and Northern England.