North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Spah1]

L

49 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not getting excited about this weekend. How many times has a frontal event never got this far north? We need a proper Easterly here in Oldham. 2018 was just amazing seeing the powdery snow blowing off the roof and fields causing drifts. And that wind was absolutely perishing but throughly enjoyable at the same time haha. I think the upper air temps was about -14 to -15C.

STUNNING synoptics.

Easterly very poor for West Lancs. So no lying snow in 2018. A few tiny flakes floating around in the wind and that was it. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Spah1

[Spah1]

Icon Tuesday. 

[SnowWatcher2]

2 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not getting excited about this weekend. How many times has a frontal event never got this far north? We need a proper Easterly here in Oldham. 2018 was just amazing seeing the powdery snow blowing off the roof and fields causing drifts. And that wind was absolutely perishing but throughly enjoyable at the same time haha. I think the upper air temps was about -14 to -15C.

STUNNING synoptics.

I remember walking from High Crompton, down Broad lane into Rochdale then back again during those freezing Easterly winds, it was the coldest winds I have ever walked through and felt like an eternity ,  cars stuck in 6ft snow drifts in middle of road, looked crazy, can't wait for it to happen again  

[Day 10]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Icon Tuesday. 

Have you got your seat belt on?

[SnowWatcher2]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Have you got your seat belt on?

Is that incase our chances crash... or for the impacts of the event 

[severe snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

God don't say that, in fact there are two patterns -

Day 5 - Heavy Snow modeled into Scotland

Day 0 - Heavy Snow into Scotland

OR

Day 5 - Heavy Snow modeled into Scotland

Day 0 - Heavy Snow into Wales & Midlands

Is does happen over us, just a lot less for some reason? Is it just bad luck or is there some meteorological explanation to it?

Three patterns actually. Optician 3 - the snow moves right over us, we start to get excited and then the band fragments and peters out rapidly.

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

Is that incase our chances crash... or for the impacts of the event 

It’s for when the front makes an abrupt 90’ turn to the east, then south and then west again to hit Yorkshire and the Midlands without affecting our region.

[Frosty the Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Icon Tuesday. 

Tell me if it's there on Monday night

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Three patterns actually. Optician 3 - the snow moves right over us, we start to get excited and then the band fragments and peters out rapidly.

Oh I, how could I forget.

[SnowWatcher2]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

It’s for when the front makes an abrupt 90’ turn to the east, then south and then west again to hit Yorkshire and the Midlands without affecting our region.

Yep... and yet the rain keeps on coming.... cursed.

[Frosty the Snowman]

Wouldn't be horrendous and was accurate last week, could do with a northward correction imby

 

[Backtrack]

Doesn’t matter how high resolution your model is, it’s never pinning down a volatile front 2 days out. I have high hopes that it’ll reach here. The last one did. The air isn’t that cold though, so whilst the thought of missing out on 3-7cm of snow is unsettling, it’s unlikely to stick around for long.

The signal is that it’s being pushed northwards, rather than sinking south. If anything, I would expect at least a 50 mile northward correction come Friday evening. 

[pip22]

When I first turns out to be another Midlands event I have this reaction:

Edited January 28, 2021 by pip22

[Day 10]

33 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Sods law is that this chart will verify, burying the NE of England and Scotland in snow with no Southward corrections leaving us all with lovely cold rain.

My forecast is out for FEB!

 

[frosty ground]

31 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Icon Tuesday. 

Should be of the top of Cornwall by Tuesday

[Rain Lady]

Now 7.3C  !!    and raining of course.

[iand61]

Just now, Rain Lady said:

Now 7.3C  !!    and raining of course.

It’ll stop the soil blowing off the fields if the wind gets up

[Spah1]

23 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Wouldn't be horrendous and was accurate last week, could do with a northward correction imby

 

Not a chance. 
 

Move on. 

[SnowWatcher2]

Another day of 2 halves on Tue..  and a maybe event.

Edited January 28, 2021 by SnowWatcher2

[Rain Lady]

41 minutes ago, iand61 said:

It’ll stop the soil blowing off the fields if the wind gets up

Nay Ian -- it'll make that stuff that Lancashire specialises in -- slutch.

[iand61]

10 minutes ago, Rain Lady said:

Nay Ian -- it'll make that stuff that Lancashire specialises in -- slutch.

Slutch, what a classic Lancashire word and sums up the texture far better than mud.

 

[WillinGlossop]

Northeast Winter Storms Can Be Difficult to Forecast – Here's Why | Weather Underground

WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM

---

This is one of the most challenging forecasts in the United States.

I know it’s the USA but quite an interesting read and shows the difficulty in forecasting sometimes and that as with Manchester here other places suffer with “dry slots “

[A Face like Thunder]

I noticed on the BBC early evening news that snow could affect the south of the region on Saturday. Weather warning seems to bear this out. An occluded front which seems to want to stall over the West and North Midlands and Cheshire up to Manchester. I'll believe it when I see it but another Feb 1996 event perhaps? 

Edited January 28, 2021 by A Face like Thunder

[Had Worse]

Just now, A Face like Thunder said:

I noticed on the BBC early evening news that snow could affect the south of the region on Saturday. An occluded front which seems to want to stall over the West and North Midlands and Cheshire up to Manchester. I'll believe it when I see it but another Feb 1996 event perhaps? 

Best test is to look out of the window. Are white flakes falling... Check

Are they settling.... Check

Is the radar showing plenty more... Check

[A Face like Thunder]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Best test is to look out of the window. Are white flakes falling... Check

Are they settling.... Check

Is the radar showing plenty more... Check

I'll keep this in mind on Saturday. At present, it is nothing more than rain, rain and more rain!