South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Jan 2021 onwards

[abruzzi spartan]

So far it looks like the Met Office have called these next couple of days pretty well.  Middle of last week there were lots of comments from some that they were 'wrong' in saying that it would be not cold enough for any proper snow in our region Monday, Tuesday.   It looks now like the most there might be is a bit of sleetiness over the highest ground.  It could of course change but the point is, I think, that they have a responsibility to the public and all the commercial organisations that pay for their forecasts and make decisions that impact us all around availability, the robustness of supply chains, staff availability etc.  That's why I only ever view the postings on sites like this with a bit of detachment; there are lots of people with lots of knowledge but wow it's notable how often cognitive bias rules the roost.

[Southender]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

If you look at parameters from ECM we’re talking wafer-thin margins it isn’t looking good for coasts but I don’t think it ever has, not convinced only higher ground will see snow falling. Heavy precipitation will be important. 

Tuesday morning uppers -7C, DPs 0-1C.. 2C on coast 

Wednesday morning uppers -7C, DPs 0-1C.. 2C on coasts 

Don’t disagree mate. Falling wet snow is a possibility in some heavier showers almost anywhere, especially early and late. But most of us want to see accumulating snow. That looks very unlikely anywhere, except for the hills. Still, a few flakes falling would be a start I suppose!

[Matty J]

Oh joy I’ve just seen the latest BBC forcast and from Monday to Wednesday we’ve got a streamer of rain

I swear we are cursed down here, I’m beginning to detest winter year by year

[Jackski4]

How are those GFS 18z uppers looking?

[Daniel*]

Not sure about people talking proper snow? Perhaps on North Downs, What I read from MetO they’re expecting nothing but rain that’s the thing, as are BBC forecasts this is why people like myself are a bit suspicious. If I’m wrong I’ll be wrong, but I just can’t see it all being rain, conditions aren’t favourable for widespread laying snow but at times especially early and late Tuesday and Wednesday, they will be good for majority of us to see snow falling.

[BLS]

7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

How are those GFS 18z uppers looking?

Not cold enough 

[SMU]

Eve - looking at the 18z the core of the cold air has taken another tick North leaving the SE in predominantly -6c Air & very  very borderline even for elevated areas.

I would hazard a guess that during daylight hours the freezing level will be circa 300M which does noone any favours....

S

[Daniel*]

The FAX charts show a convergence zone or twig over SE for 24 hours between Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing for sure it will not be dry. 

[Southender]

11 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

How are those GFS 18z uppers looking?

Don’t ask

[Jackski4]

Some -8s across EA more like -6/7 for the SE.. 

516D6DF2-4A68-4A37-B12E-7DD91C6F5F72.webp

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Don’t ask

That bad huh 

[BLS]

Wednesday still in with a very slim shout that’s about it atm 

[clark3r]

God it’s never in our favour hope for upgrades tomorrow morning

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Heavier burst of rain here with very wet snow flakes mixed in.

2.5C

1.3D

Looks like the new weather station is up and running! Looks a smart bit of kit but at 160 quid I think I'll go give the batteries in mine another rub together and smack on the table a couple times!

[Paul Sherman]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The FAX charts show a convergence zone or twig over SE for 24 hours between Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing for sure it will not be dry. 

Oh great just what we need more flooding - Hope the CZ is further south could do with much more drying as the water table is very high (Sorry Medway Boys) but hope this runs through Central Kent lol

[Daniel*]

What’s interesting about the pub run it maintains the easterly flow for longer into weekend and DPs are good more conducive for snowfall. Cold continent. The UKMO also kept it going for longer but slacker flow/drier in contrast to ECM the most progressive of the lot. Hopefully we can squeeze more mileage out week ahead.

[yamkin]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not sure about people talking proper snow? Perhaps on North Downs, What I read from MetO they’re expecting nothing but rain that’s the thing, as are BBC forecasts this is why people like myself are a bit suspicious. If I’m wrong I’ll be wrong, but I just can’t see it all being rain, conditions aren’t favourable for widespread laying snow but at times especially early and late Tuesday and Wednesday, they will be good for majority of us to see snow falling.

I remember a few years ago when the MetO only forecast rain, but the rain quickly turned to heavy snow. Bosses at Croydon Council were not too pleased with the MetO at the time!!! (Just in case, this was way before the MeteoGroup took over from the MetO re forecasts for Croydon Council!!)

[Binsey72]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

I remember a few years ago when the MetO only forecast rain, but the rain quickly turned to heavy snow. Bosses at Croydon Council were not too pleased with the MetO at the time!!! (Just in case, this was way before the MeteoGroup took over from the MetO re forecasts for Croydon Council!!)

We had the same bluebell hill a few years back .  This same set up and they ended up having about 7 inches of snow .  It started about 4 to 5 pm ! So you never know !!

[Southender]

8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Oh great just what we need more flooding - Hope the CZ is further south could do with much more drying as the water table is very high (Sorry Medway Boys) but hope this runs through Central Kent lol

Mid Kent Rain Streamer
 

Unfortunately I think we are going to be smack underneath it for at least 24hrs

Edited January 3, 2021 by Southender

[snowrye]

32 minutes ago, Matty J said:

Oh joy I’ve just seen the latest BBC forcast and from Monday to Wednesday we’ve got a streamer of rain

I swear we are cursed down here, I’m beginning to detest winter year by year

It's just a constant let down 

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

We had the same bluebell hill a few years back .  This same set up and they ended up having about 7 inches of snow .  It started about 4 to 5 pm ! So you never know !!

Do you know the date for that? Would be interesting to look at archive.

[Jackski4]

Well I’m off to bed now. Let’s hope the runs in a few hours drop those low uppers further south so we’re looking at a streamer of snow come Tuesday instead of flood warnings.

 

For what it is worth atleast the pub run is better than today’s 12zs- para also miles better.

[stainesbloke]

26 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What’s interesting about the pub run it maintains the easterly flow for longer into weekend and DPs are good more conducive for snowfall. Cold continent. The UKMO also kept it going for longer but slacker flow/drier in contrast to ECM the most progressive of the lot. Hopefully we can squeeze more mileage out week ahead.

Colder continent as the week progresses, forecasting ice days from midweek in C Europe so if the winds remain E’ly, should help snow chances in our region. 

[alexisj9]

25 minutes ago, yamkin said:

I remember a few years ago when the MetO only forecast rain, but the rain quickly turned to heavy snow. Bosses at Croydon Council were not too pleased with the MetO at the time!!! (Just in case, this was way before the MeteoGroup took over from the MetO re forecasts for Croydon Council!!)

Yes I remember that very well, had to walk to pick up my kids from school, traffic chock-a-block, passed about twenty stuck busses on Brighton road on the way. Other direction was relatively empty, but walked back anyway, cause I knew there'd be no buses, cause I could see them all stuck lol. I'm guess the problem was up the road in the Purley downs.

[Norfolk_N_chance]

Frequent rain showers throughout the day here in North Norfolk, some spectacular skies this afternoon.

Temp and dewpoint now starting to get where we need need them. 

Really liking my Christmas present, the sainlogic weather station has been a Great addition to the household.

There is some cold out there, spoke to the family near Trondheim and they didn't get above -4c today. I keep asking them to send some this way because they get bored of the cold and snow!