Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Froze were the Days]

GFS (P) has predictably had a wobble so it's the turn of the old brother GFS to be the favourite...at the moment. UKMO still underwhelming but it only goes out to day 7 and all the action is at near day 10 onwards (surprise surprise!).

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS (P) has predictably had a wobble so it's the turn of the old brother GFS to be the favourite...at the moment. UKMO still underwhelming but it only goes out to day 7 and all the action is at near day 10 onwards (surprise surprise!).

Gone a bit quiet on the Model thread. Probably a duff ECM output!

[Skullzrulerz]

It's almost like watching a soap at 7 in the evening

 

[StormyLincs]

41 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Gone a bit quiet on the Model thread. Probably a duff ECM output!

Missing data perhaps

[Nick L]

5 hours ago, MattStoke said:

There aren’t many people in their thirties who were born 42 years ago.

Haha! The fact is, that most people around today were either born after the 80s winters or were too young to remember. I'm 28 and don't remember any specific weather events before the early 2000s.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

36 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's almost like watching a soap at 7 in the evening

 

Yes well need this website interesting, borefest quarantine for who knows how long! furlough, lockdown, isolation, crap crap

[PolarWarsaw]

The ECM 12z is a perfectly plausible out come, whether it looks likely or unlikely - have people not started to understand yet that an SSW does not guarantee cold and snow of any nature (let alone significant) in anyway shape or form? Yes it would be disappointing, but the mass hysteria because one ECM doesn't show a meltdown is to nearly an embarrassing level. 

Is this what the forum is going to be like to read whenever an SSW is forecast? An SSW increases the chances only of cold and snow.

There's a pandemic killing tens of thousands of people going on in the world. We all want, long, severe, snowy weather but some of you need to step away from a computer and see what's really important. 

A serious 'lowering' of hopes and expectations with regards to any weather we get at the surface in the next few weeks is needed on this forum tonight, more for the mental state of members. 

We could be in a bartlett, stuck with a huge vortex over Greenland, be under a stagnant high pressure, in a battleground situation, in a modest cold spell or something more memorable in the next few weeks. I know where I'd hedge my percentages of what is more likely, but absolutely nobody and especially any computer model can tell you with anymore efficiency or certainty. For those reasons every single member using this thread should be aware that all of the above outcomes are completely on the table. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Mapantz

[Malcolm Edwards]

I for one love snow and seldom experience it here in marazion. As every year I follow the forum, they always seem to get tantalisingly close to epic outcomes only to be brought firmly back to earth with all toys thrown. However this year feels different and IF we end up with what has been showing on the charts, it could be a disaster for our infrastructure especially now with covid. So as much as I want to see the fi charts come to fruition, I wouldn't wish the chaos the would grip our country. 

[Paul90]

Well Steve Murr is sounding very pessimistic on the mod thread and when he's pessimistic well you know how this is going to go, does anyone think there are mildie trolls on the mod thread posing as coldies but are deliberately out to wind coldies up?

[KTtom]

Must admit, its nice to see SM post some down to earth posts with science to back it up....tomorrow will no doubt bring with it new signals, but as of tonight the ones who derided anyone who had reservations relating to the end of the months cold spell have just had a dose of realism. I love cold and snow but i can see why Knocker legged it!

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, Paul90 said:

Well Steve Murr is sounding very pessimistic on the mod thread and when he's pessimistic well you know how this is going to go, does anyone think there are mildie trolls on the mod thread posing as coldies but are deliberately out to wind coldies up?

Not really, but there are, I would say 20 % who actually enjoy the weather whatever it brings...everyone has their preferences...personally, stuck at home mine is dry and cold. Doesnt mean you should get slated for posting a current, relevent chart which doesnt show what the majority want.

[bumpydogz]

4 minutes ago, Paul90 said:

Well Steve Murr is sounding very pessimistic on the mod thread and when he's pessimistic well you know how this is going to go

Things take a turn for the better? 

[pegg24]

Give it a few hours they will be arguing amongst each other.

[StormyLincs]

I personally think too many people expect too much of these SSW events and need to take a reality check. With every southwards surge of cold from the Arctic there must be a warm surge from the tropics. Unfortunately this time around we didn’t get lucky.

[Nick L]

Again, this is not a "model thread review thread". Can we stop using this as a commentary on the quality of posts in there please?  If you want to change the course of conversation in the model thread, then get involved.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Nick L

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Until the Met Office say it's going to be below normal temperatures for the South and the GEFS ensembles show quite a few members showing below -10c consistently shall I start to get more excited.

Until then its curtains for the South I'm afraid!

[Flake news]

44 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Haha! The fact is, that most people around today were either born after the 80s winters or were too young to remember. I'm 28 and don't remember any specific weather events before the early 2000s.

I remember the nice easterlies in the 80s, then the near-end of Scottish skiing in the 90s.  The cold spells 2009/2010 really caught me off guard, had waited so long for proper winters that I'd stopped paying attention to winter weather forecasts by that point.  The last 11 years have been OK for extreme weather voyeurism.

[SLEETY]

Last  time SM gave up in early December  ALL the models went cold lol and we got the current cold spell,so hope he continues on giving up again.

 

But too much uncertainty ,to know how any of this is going to pan out,even the MET are not confident but seem to favour cold,so dont give up that we wont see a bitterly cold spell develop

 

 

[stainesbloke]

It’s only January 10th, not late February. A lot could happen in 6-7 weeks. Not like you can go out and properly enjoy any snow at the moment, unfortunately (but the word ‘lockdown’ seems to not register with at least 50% of the population). 

Edited January 10, 2021 by stainesbloke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

It’s only January 10th, not late February. A lot could happen in 6-7 weeks. Not like you can go out and properly enjoy any snow at the moment, unfortunately (but the word ‘lockdown’ seems to not register with at least 50% of the population). 

Wish it was late February!

Edited January 10, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[NEVES SCREAMER]

20 hours ago, YellowSnow said:

I used to love a good Siberian freeze and buckets of snow when I was younger. But as you get older the appeal diminishes. Personally I’d be happy with a mild and dry winter, it’s less disruptive and easier on the gas bill. I still totally get why the younger members like it though. 

Right there chap. When I was a kid we never seemed to get much snow. Apart from 78/79  and 81. As an old git these days i shiver at the thought of that Beast from the East and minus 5 max temps. Yuk. Frozen pipes. Frozen feet. Frozen slush. Frozen windscreen in the motor. Travel disruption. Trains not running. Cars abandoned. 2 duvets on the bed. Risk breaking your leg on horrible pavements  Roll on spring! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree roll on Spring, but boring dry/mild in quarantine? no thanks

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Yes please

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Haha! The fact is, that most people around today were either born after the 80s winters or were too young to remember. I'm 28 and don't remember any specific weather events before the early 2000s.

Born in 76, so almost moving into my old git territory(45 in May), and my memories of snowy winters began somewhere in the 1980s.

I vaguely remember snow in London during January before 1981, because we moved in late 1980. So my earliest memory of London snow was either January 1980, or 79. Not sure though, because looking at records 1980 was snowless in London. 
 

My first proper memory of feeling cold and getting frostbite was either 1986 or January 1987, and February 1991 was a classic cold snowy spell.

To anyone who born after 1985, I would say winter of 2008/09 produced the best London snow since 1991, and remember the heavy snow in early feb 2009. December 2010 was also another classic. 
 

Feb 1994 was still decent for snow, but not as good as others above.

Ok, long boring rant over.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mine started early 90's, 90/91/94/95/96