Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Paul]

Chat about the winter weather in here - if you fancy a moan about the weather, or a bit of a ramp, this is the place to do it. Please keep it to the weather though.

[NPA]

How far ahead are the models accurate/reliable for? 24/48 hours?

[Telicherry Pepper]

27 minutes ago, NPA said:

How far ahead are the models accurate/reliable for? 24/48 hours?

minutes

[Tim A]

I find the Met Office automated temp forecasts really good. Ok it won't pick out conditions well e.g when a shower will arrive but temps are accurate. For LBA I look for 0c or 1c during possible precipitation, otherwise too mild. 

Tonight it goes for 1c all night so marginal, 0c most of tomorrow night so better.  During the day 2c to 3c so too warm for setting snow unless we get a really heavy organised band.

Had a moderate snow shower a few mins ago which has left a dusting as ground was frozen. 1.1c

 

[MP-R]

Still waiting for proper wintry precipitation here as each precipitation band so far during this cold spell has timed itself perfectly for when temperatures are just a little too marginal. Nights have been fairly cold and frosty though. So all in all, a colder version of what might expect in winter anyway on the surface, despite better looking synoptics.

Really REALLY hoping we can squeeze a snowfall out of this spell before any risk of turning milder.

[Snowshine]

Models are strongly in favour of milder conditions next week. I feel like many posts on the MOD thread focus on what people want to hear rather than looking at the realistic probability of future events (i.e. by cherry-picking favourable model outputs and ignoring the rest).

Edited January 3, 2021 by xSnow

[summer blizzard]

The setup looks milder but actually cold uppers are trapped underneath the high. 

[Jason M]

2 hours ago, NPA said:

How far ahead are the models accurate/reliable for? 24/48 hours?

Depends. If they are showing blizzards its 16 days, if they show mild weather reliability drops to less than 5 days.

[Guest]

Looked at the radar first thing and just couldn’t help but think ‘what a waste’ endless convective showers being driven WSW on a cold breeze in the first week of January. 25years ago almost everything on the radar would have been snow. It’s been the same story for the last week now, wouldn’t surprise me if this theme continues and solid Synoptics are wasted. 

[SLEETY]

Unreal to see this set-up in beginning of  January,its been ages..

Lots of snow this week then you would think,well actually the reality is it wasnt COLD enough in beginning of JANUARY so still rain.

[NeilN]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Looked at the radar first thing and just couldn’t help but think ‘what a waste’ endless convective showers being driven WSW on a cold breeze in the first week of January. 25years ago almost everything on the radar would have been snow. It’s been the same story for the last week now, wouldn’t surprise me if this theme continues and solid Synoptics are wasted. 

It makes you wonder, is global warming neutering these fronts? Then again, perhaps it a case of wrong place, wrong time? I think this winter is more of an 08/09 than anything classic. 

[DanDorsetUK]

Comments above regarding whether this current setup is anything to do with Global warming it's not! If this same set up happened 25 years ago it would be the same. All the cold is over the other side. If it was closer we would have tapped into colder air it's as simple as that.

People shouldn't be looking beyond 5 days right now especially so during what is a MAJOR SSW. There is more likelyhood of it being a QTR this time in fact were already seeing signs of this with such inconsistencies between runs. It like a plug being pulled from a bath. You'll notice small affects untill momentum builds then the greatest movement will be seen.

Looking at the latest its already showing -54 m/s at 1 hpa this morning! And stays reversed for a long time. Not only that but a new wave 1 showing up.

High pressure is likely to break out quickly towards the pole with high latitude blocking. The split looks likely sending cold into America and Europe with eastilies for a long time well into February.

The jet could indeed fire up but its likely to be low tracking which could actually provide bundles of snow for the South through February.

The cold will spread out into lower latitudes.

I'm 100% confident that's how it will pan out. You can expect to see a big shift appear very quickly on the models any time from today more likely in 48hrs.

[PiscesStar]

46 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Comments above regarding whether this current setup is anything to do with Global warming it's not! If this same set up happened 25 years ago it would be the same. All the cold is over the other side. If it was closer we would have tapped into colder air it's as simple as that.

People shouldn't be looking beyond 5 days right now especially so during what is a MAJOR SSW. There is more likelyhood of it being a QTR this time in fact were already seeing signs of this with such inconsistencies between runs. It like a plug being pulled from a bath. You'll notice small affects untill momentum builds then the greatest movement will be seen.

Looking at the latest its already showing -54 m/s at 1 hpa this morning! And stays reversed for a long time. Not only that but a new wave 1 showing up.

High pressure is likely to break out quickly towards the pole with high latitude blocking. The split looks likely sending cold into America and Europe with eastilies for a long time well into February.

The jet could indeed fire up but its likely to be low tracking which could actually provide bundles of snow for the South through February.

The cold will spread out into lower latitudes.

I'm 100% confident that's how it will pan out. You can expect to see a big shift appear very quickly on the models any time from today more likely in 48hrs.

Post of the day. If anything, I'm giving it a week to allow for the effects of the ssw to show their hand and I agree it will be cold with snowfall for many esp the second half of Jan into Feb 

[SLEETY]

SSW doesen't  guarantee a cold spell for UK,last one in 2019 didnt,it went mild.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Paul

[daz_4]

The upcoming weekend looked quite nice for Central Europe but GFS just keeps downgrading the uppers so it will be fighting for scraps once again. It's quite something that we are approaching middle of winter without a single ice day here.

[summer blizzard]

Yes. Contrary to popular opinion we have had duds historically and we are just unlucky that this has stemmed from a high over south eastern Europe.

[bumpydogz]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Interesting early developments..could be some wintry showers focused towards the SE and the NE on Tuesday...some of these could get well inland also,so a few surprises in some areas for sure..

Nothing wintry in the south-east tomorrow so no radar watching required. Its miserable rain today, and will remain so for tomorrow.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

SSW doesen't  guarantee a cold spell for UK,last one in 2019 didnt,it went mild.

Yep! sure did, that was the Winter of the MetO updates that everybody kept watching/reading. In all truth parts of the country only saw a wee bit of wet snow for a day though parts of Southern England/Southern Midlands and parts of Wales had something a bit more substantial from being just on the right side of marginal. Posters were expecting a cold February on the back of the updates and EC46 mslp forecasts but they were a bust!...lets hope this is not another watch and weight brief on the back of a SSW (which it looks like turning into).

Edited January 4, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yep! sure did, that was the Winter of the MetO updates that everybody kept watching/reading. In all truth parts of the country only saw a wee bit of wet snow for a day though parts of Southern England/Southern Midlands and parts of Wales had something a bit more substantial from being just on the right side of marginal. Posters were expecting a cold February on the back of the updates and EC46 mslp forecasts but they were a bust!...lets hope this is not another watch and weight brief on the back of a SSW (which it looks like turning into).

What a corker that one was... 21C in February!

[NPA]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What a corker that one was... 21C in February!

If only it would happen again...

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Alderc said:

. 25years ago almost everything on the radar would have been snow. It’s been the same story for the last week now, wouldn’t surprise me if this theme continues and solid Synoptics are wasted. 

 

[BlazeStorm]

13 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

Nothing wintry in the south-east tomorrow so no radar watching required. Its miserable rain today, and will remain so for tomorrow.

Who spilt coffee on your weather charts?

[Roger J Smith]

Rain showers in a northeast flow is sort of like you're having neapolitan ice cream and you get all chocolate. 

[Updated_Weather]

49 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

Nothing wintry in the south-east tomorrow so no radar watching required. Its miserable rain today, and will remain so for tomorrow.

Not correct at all. Wintry showers could occur in the south east overnight into tomorrow.

[Ols500]

39 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Not correct at all. Wintry showers could occur in the south east overnight into tomorrow.

Dps fall below zero around 8pm tonight?