Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[PiscesStar]

Can't see anything remotely white or snowy for us south easterners. It's crazy how on such a small island where u live makes such a huge difference....  

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Can't see anything remotely white or snowy for us south easterners. It's crazy how on such a small island where u live makes such a huge difference....  

I can’t see anything remotely snowy here either and I live much further north. I’ve barely seen a flake of snow all winter, let alone anything lying.

[mb018538]

I’m just getting fed up with the amount of slow moving systems we’ve had this winter. It’s pretty much been raining here since yesterday morning, and everything is sopping wet. For a non zonal winter, it’s been just as wet anyway, but just miserable and cold to go with it the bulk of the time. At least when it’s mild and zonal it’s a bit more bearable. If this is al we’re going to see, the roll on March. Only 6 weeks to go....

[NewEra21]

I've given up watching the past few model runs, so I thought I'd have a nosey this morning. It doesn't seem to matter what the models or their ensembles are showing, they're just flip flopping from run to run. Almost feels pointless looking at the models currently. 

[Premiere Neige]

2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

What’s more remarkable is that that isn’t delivering any notably cold weather. Would like to know what the surface conditions were for that 1940 chart... 

It doesn't need to be notably cold though. Currently snowing here in south Yorkshire and it isn't notably cold. This is the 4th snowfall here since 28th December...

[Penrith Snow]

2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

What’s more remarkable is that that isn’t delivering any notably cold weather. Would like to know what the surface conditions were for that 1940 chart... 

I can tell you, January 1940 was exceptionally cold and snowy particularly in the North and the last week in January saw widespread snowfall and deep cold. January 1940 was colder than January 1963 in Northern England and Scotland.

Not quite the same this month is it?

Andy

[pureasthedriven]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

It doesn't need to be notably cold though. Currently snowing here in south Yorkshire and it isn't notably cold. This is the 4th snowfall here since 28th December...

If you live in London, at sea level, it needs to be notably cold. 2m temps between 0-2c and dew points at or below zero is notably cold. And that chart isn’t. 

[pureasthedriven]

3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I can tell you, January 1940 was exceptionally cold and snowy particularly in the North and the last week in January saw widespread snowfall and deep cold. January 1940 was colder than January 1963 in Northern England and Scotland.

Not quite the same this month is it?

Andy

Quite. 

[saintkip]

Just now, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Whilst we're all fixated on events that may or may not happen in 10 days time, here's a much closer timescale

 

and the first one is wrong, the heaviest snow is in Yorkshire 

[Premiere Neige]

12 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

If you live in London, at sea level, it needs to be notably cold. 2m temps between 0-2c and dew points at or below zero is notably cold. And that chart isn’t. 

All about perception I suppose. I wouldn't class 2c as notably cold though....

[winterfreak]

I say this all the time, so much I bore myself with it, but I don’t get the usefulness of the models. They’re more often than not hopelessly wrong. ‘Look for the trend, not the detail’ is oft repeated. Well recently the trend has been cold Winter weather the like of which we’ve not seen for a good while until at the last minute it goes t*ts up and disappears. Better off reading tea leaves

[StormyLincs]

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I say this all the time, so much I bore myself with it, but I don’t get the usefulness of the models. They’re more often than not hopelessly wrong. ‘Look for the trend, not the detail’ is oft repeated. Well recently the trend has been cold Winter weather the like of which we’ve not seen for a good while until at the last minute it goes t*ts up and disappears. Better off reading tea leaves

I’m reading seaweed and the behaviour of grebes and waxwings. Not really, but I might as well be given the unreliability  of the model output recently. 

[PiscesStar]

44 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I've given up watching the past few model runs, so I thought I'd have a nosey this morning. It doesn't seem to matter what the models or their ensembles are showing, they're just flip flopping from run to run. Almost feels pointless looking at the models currently. 

I do agree. With the ssw and downwelling yet to take effect..... 

[Gowon]

You just know before the winter starts that it's gonna be crap but you just hope maybe it'll be different this year So much potential and we still end up with the same old rubbish like every winter.

Edited January 14, 2021 by D.V.R
Swear filter

[snowblizzard]

22 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I say this all the time, so much I bore myself with it, but I don’t get the usefulness of the models. They’re more often than not hopelessly wrong. ‘Look for the trend, not the detail’ is oft repeated. Well recently the trend has been cold Winter weather the like of which we’ve not seen for a good while until at the last minute it goes t*ts up and disappears. Better off reading tea leaves

Absolutely agree!

IMHO, there's no point looking any further than 96 hours and even then the finer details are often inaccurate.

Yes, it's exciting to see model charts showing dream scenario's of severe cold and snow at 180/240 hours but invariably they will be totally incorrect.   

I prefer listening to the real experts so I do start to get excited when the Met Office are on board with potential severe weather events but even they are sometimes wrong!

As for this winter, it continues to look poor for our particular area in the South East of UK! 

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by snowblizzard

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

Can't see anything remotely white or snowy for us south easterners. It's crazy how on such a small island where u live makes such a huge difference....  

But, we have been quite lucky in the past especially when we get a proper Easterly like Jan 1987, Feb 1991, Feb/Mar 2018  

Northerly outbreaks (except exceptionally cold ones)  have never been much good for us in SE  

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by snowblizzard

[78/79]

Here in Somerset our best falls have always come from the combination of a very cold E/NE air source meeting a push from the Atlantic. Rare I'll grant you, but really delivers when it happens. 

[snowblizzard]

15 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Here in Somerset our best falls have always come from the combination of a very cold E/NE air source meeting a push from the Atlantic. Rare I'll grant you, but really delivers when it happens. 

Similar here in SE (Kent)

But, quite often best snowfalls have been from heavy convective showers especially Thames streamers! 

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by snowblizzard

[sparky1972]

Rain rain and more rain, flooding must be becomming a concern around here, lets get rid of this cold rain for some early spring warmth please.

[snowblizzard]

10 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Rain rain and more rain, flooding must be becomming a concern around here, lets get rid of this cold rain for some early spring warmth please.

Yes, it's so depressing at the moment!

Let's hope we get some early spring warmth this year.  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

As long as low heights persist between Scotland and Norway there is slim chance of anything wintry for southern U.K. lowlands.

The SSW has been the biggest meteorological flop of 2021!

 

[Bald Eagle]

1 hour ago, winterfreak said:

I say this all the time, so much I bore myself with it, but I don’t get the usefulness of the models. They’re more often than not hopelessly wrong. ‘Look for the trend, not the detail’ is oft repeated. Well recently the trend has been cold Winter weather the like of which we’ve not seen for a good while until at the last minute it goes t*ts up and disappears. Better off reading tea leaves

Ah yes.... the interpretation of what a logarithm thinks may or may not happen 10 days away has always made me chuckle. 72 hours and yes you might have a chance. 

[EML Network]

It would snow on the sun before it snowed down here. I give up, if we couldn't get snowfall with minus 5 uppers and a thames streamer with a north east feed then we are probably never going to see snow down here in this SE corner ever again. 

[Dan B]

2ºC and constant rain here now for nearly 2 days

The grounds absolutely sodden and if it does snow; it's got no chance of sticking at all

 

[Fozfoster]

I don’t need to write a post all the previous pages have summed it up!

Edited January 14, 2021 by Fozfoster