Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Oh dear Been sent to the naughty step!....

Really don't understand the logic of model thread, because once the models have finished output it's several hours before the next one comes out, so all the talk which takes place inevitably will be either moans or ramps that are  generated from the model output, makes no sense to me. Yes you get the people  who think its all about learning and how dare someone make a knee jerk reaction without writing  a dissertation on how they arrived at a post of Snowmageddon, but surely light hearted fun is the way forward. Didn't you used to have an in depth model thread once. Would be better for the more learned amongst us! Just my view anyway.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Guest

[Skullzrulerz]

Oh dear I think we need some therapy for folk especially after the nightmares of this morning's models 

Slots will hopefully be available soon as it's currently full with the "nailed on" syndrome 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Very interesting statistics from Laura Tobin on GMB this morning regarding global warming.

The degree of warming over the last 100 years is absolutely staggering!

It seems like summer heatwaves are now likely every other year on average.

Surely, these changes are bound to affect UK winters.

Severe winters in UK have always been very rare 1947, 1962/63

Severe cold spells like January 1987 & February 1991 would happen every 5-10 years on average.

I don't believe we will ever see another winter like 1947 or 1962/63 in our lifetime.

And, severe cold spells like January 1987 & February 1991 could possibly only happen once in every 15-25 years.

At the moment we are seeing some of the most favourable NH winter synoptics for several years but there's a lack of deep cold around the UK

As a severe cold & snowy weather fanatic, I find the situation really quite depressing.  

  

Don’t listen to her, she said to stop eating meat an extra day per week will help halt global warming.  
There was a huge global temp drop last month with swathes of record cold in NH continents (the relative ‘warming’ in arctic hasn’t prevented that and won’t) .  North America has been cooling for years now (NASA figures) v UK warming....I bet the AMO in warm phase wasn’t mentioned?  Classic   picking by Laura

 

BFTP 

Edited January 13, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[78/79]

Watching events unfold with interest, personally I don't mind which way it goes, in the grand scheme of things at the moment it's not  that important. One thing I will say is that during my 60 odd years, I  can count the number of truly memorable /severe winters on the fingers of 2 hands. That must tell you something. The weather in this country is bland at best, and c.. p at worst. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Even if we don’t see a swing back to the colder charts of yesterday : there is still snow opportunities for everyone at some point in the next couple of weeks. At the end of Jan you don’t need a huge Greenland or a scandi high to produce snow...just a bit colder than average with the jet stream heading south of us ...

Tim, 28th Jan is a century away!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Im not giving up hope yet. It was luck that yesterday we got such good charts when they could’ve easily gone wrong like this morning. With such fine margins and parameters, we could easily end up with a stellar run again this evening. I’ve seen these blips happen many times before 

Edited January 13, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Don’t listen to her, she said to stop eating meat an extra day per week will help halt global warming.  
There was a huge global temp drop last month with swathes of record cold in NH continents (the relative ‘warming’ in arctic hasn’t prevented that and won’t) .  North America has been cooling for years now (NASA figures) v UK warming....I bet the AMO in warm phase wasn’t mentioned?  Classic   picking by Laura

 

BFTP 

And, not least, by your good self, Fred?

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Tim, 28th Jan is a century away!

Haha I’m not making a forecast of snow in the south on 28th Jan...just giving an example of how the current charts can still deliver even for the south. The above could happen next week or in 3 weeks,  but like we have seen for tomorrow amd Sat in the east - Snow chances can pop up at relatively short notice under the conditions this morning runs show.
 

No need to wrist slitting if it’s some snow you are after..historic cold may be on shakey ground though

[Easton Luna Boys]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Unbelievable. No beating around the bush from me . What a downgrade across the board . Not just 1 or 2 wobbles , the runs across the board are terrible compared to yesterday . Can’t believe how flat it’s gone in the mid range . Time to have a break , these  false dawns are frustrating the hell out of me man

But it's not like we haven't been here before! I'm not sure why there is genuine shock and disappointment here? The golden rules had not yet been set; cross model agreement @144. Confidence in <-5 uppers (NOT marginal). 

[The Beast From The East]

I think we all know it's always the same. So much promise of these cold charts for xmas, then moves to start of new year, then mid Jan, Feb sometime only for it all to fall in place in late March when the days are getting longer ...

[Flake news]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Don’t listen to her, she said to stop eating meat an extra day per week will help halt global warming.  
There was a huge global temp drop last month with swathes of record cold in NH continents (the relative ‘warming’ in arctic hasn’t prevented that and won’t) .  North America has been cooling for years now (NASA figures) v UK warming....I bet the AMO in warm phase wasn’t mentioned?  Classic   picking by Laura

 

BFTP 

 And cherry picking is something you would never do.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, apophenia said:

 And cherry picking is something you would never do.

She’s an alleged professional on national tv ....UK weather is of little relevance globally.  Poor at best.

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Paul]

We're getting into climate here, which is for another thread (feel free to start one, or respond to any already running in the climate area), but I have to leave this here - global does tend to mean global.

2020 on track to be one of three warmest years on record

PUBLIC.WMO.INT

---

Climate change continued its relentless march in 2020, which is on track to be one of the three warmest years on record. 2011-2020 will be the warmest decade on record, with the warmest six years all being since...

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And, not least, by your good self, Fred?

Professional on national tv Pete....and no comebacks are allowed re natural forcings etc

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Professional on national tv Pete....and no comebacks are allowed re natural forcings etc

 

BFTP

Which, I guess, is one reason why I rate her opinions (on weather and climate) as being better-reasoned than yours...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Which, I guess, is one reason why I rate her opinions (on weather and climate) as being better-reasoned than yours...

That’s good Pete, ( should’ve added alleged).   I hope you are eating less meat as she stipulated

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mucka]

GFS 06z already even faster with the low than the 00z, let's see what happens

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 06z already even faster with the low than the 00z, let's see what happens

Yes the LP in the Atlantic further ENE towards the UK at t108 compared t120 on 00z

BFTP

[Mucka]

120 hours and that low is at least 500 miles further NE than yesterdays 06z. Pathetic really.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Mucka

[Alexis]

Just viewed all the models and my conclusion - they don't have a scooby doo.

[Guest]

Well big turnaround on all models showing exactly what I predicted.

This weekends front brings mostly cold rain for everyone. Exception is northern areas above 200m - don't be fooled by the snow charts the cold just ain't there!

[sheikhy]

Such a shame the cold spell that was forecasted for next week has been thrown out the window potentially!!!i did warn the peeps on here!!!!ah well short term prospects for snow still to focus on!!

[Djdazzle]

It looks increasingly like the date mentioned for the 20th in terms of very cold weather starting isn't going to happen.

If this does go wrong, I just hope that people learn from it.

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The para looks more realistic with weaker features, it's still not a great chart for cold fans tho

Output getting worse and worse. We could be looking month end into February now for deeper cold as opposed to the last third of the month.

[NeilN]

Sadly, I think this is the sign of the times. You'll never get the weather we had before.

Sounds crazy, but what about nuking these fronts that are disrupting the cold? Perhaps a few up to the arctic could bring a man made SSW?