South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

No Ice day here today - Temp just crept up to 2c now here and flat grey skies.

Would rather some sunshine and showers from a westerly now tbh

The real wintery weather has missed our corner of the Uk, the rest of the Uk are at between -1c and -5c atm so proper wintery weather. You could draw a diagonal line from about Lincs across to West Berks and anything North and West of there have had a taste of winter these last 12 days

Edited January 7, 2021 by Paul Sherman

[Sparky68]

Just been outside for the 1st time since 5:30am and it feels a lot colder than when I got here [Milton Keynes] . Quick check shows its dropped from 0 to -2 .

[Eagle Eye]

We are about to enter the warmer period so we have to be patient and now that it will last probably about 2 weeks so don't expect the Cold to be on the charts for a while.

Any cold on the charts in about a week or two should be taken with a pinch of salt considering resident enthusiast(not my own words but I am though) has said this it will take a while to see what happens with the SSW and so Waiting is really the best for the moment.

Assuming that we do get the Arctic Cold in exactly Two Weeks Time this could be one of the first tmes if not the first that it snowed on my Birthday which is on the 24th Of January as this month.

Boom Charts are all well and good but when it's over a Week away after the Warm is there really any point on expecting those to happen.

We all know on here that this is very unlikely to happen.

Closer to now it is expected that we will get some Sleet and possibly even some snow.

As the Warm takes control yet again, it does look like it's anyones guess, I would like to see @Paul Sherman take on this and what he thinks are the chances of us getting the SSW to eventually bring the Cold as he's seemed really pessimestic so far and wether he starts looking brighter but I expect that it is too early to call.

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Sheldon Cooper

[danm]

Well it looks like yet again that any snow tomorrow will spare the south east. It's purely bad luck at the moment, with whatever snow is due to fall going to the same areas that have had it so far - N England, Midlands, parts of Wales and the northern parts of the W Country. 

[Bogman]

I see the slim snow potential for tomorrow has gone the way of the pooper. Useless.

[Polaris]

Snow warning extended south this morning for Friday to cover my area. 
Not expecting anything though. 
 

Expecting everything to pass to the North and west of here as it’s done past two weeks except when temperatures were to high and right on cue, ppn galore. 

[Paul Sherman]

@ Sheldon 

I do see more cold opportunities before we reach the end of winter but I really am not seeing any excitement in the next few weeks for SE England. The Longwave pattern looks set to me from around the 12th Onwards for 2 weeks with very cold weather for NE USA and Canada this can only spell trouble for the Uk with strong LP Areas leaving the Eastern Seaboard and heading West to East across the Atlantic, although these wont affect us in a zonal fashion rattling across the Uk the overall theme looks to be Low Pressure dominated in the Atlantic Basin with very little Heights in the key areas we need going forward to around the 25th Jan. If any SSW downwelling is going to be realised for the Uk I have a feeling it will be in the 3-4 week timescale like I said at the start of this week. So the period from the 25th Jan onwards into the first week of February would be favoured atm with hopes Scandinavia and Northern Europe can build some proper cold for us to tap into.

The whole cycle of Japan (Brutally Cold) USA (Warm) Europe (Cold) looks to be replaced in the next 2 weeks with USA (Into the Freezer) Uk more average.

Sorry for not feeling it at the moment but after all this is done I can see January coming in around Average CET wise for Southern England, maybe a little bit below for the Midlands and below for Scotland

[Southender]

So as I'm bored, I have literally looked through every HRES model to find some crumbs for our region regards tomorrow...

The way I see it is the band of snow (weakening all the time) will head South and then more South West into Mids/Wales and on the whole unless you are more North West based, it will miss us bar the odd flake.

The only crumb and it is a very small one (about enough to feed an ant) is perhaps we should look more towards the Southern North Sea/Estuary Friday evening into early hours Saturday. Winds should swing somewhere between NE'ly-E'ly at this time and there is a small window and chance of some instability sparking some wintry showers to be pulled across some parts of the region, as the band to the west slides away SW.

That's about all I can find I'm afraid, unless anything changes next couple of runs.

 

[alexisj9]

43 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

We are about to enter the warmer period so we have to be patient and now that it will last probably about 2 weeks so don't expect the Cold to be on the charts for a while.

Any cold on the charts in about a week or two should be taken with a pinch of salt considering resident enthusiast(not my own words but I am though) has said this it will take a while to see what happens with the SSW and so Waiting is really the best for the moment.

Assuming that we do get the Arctic Cold in exactly Two Weeks Time this could be one of the first tmes if not the first that it snowed on my Birthday which is on the 24th Of January as this month.

Boom Charts are all well and good but when it's over a Week away after the Warm is there really any point on expecting those to happen.

We all know on here that this is very unlikely to happen.

Closer to now it is expected that we will get some Sleet and possibly even some snow.

As the Warm takes control yet again, it does look like it's anyones guess, I would like to see @Paul Sherman take on this and what he thinks are the chances of us getting the SSW to eventually bring the Cold as he's seemed really pessimestic so far and wether he starts looking brighter but I expect that it is too early to call.

 

That chart at the bottom doesn't look warm to me, looks like it would be rather cold under that high.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That chart at the bottom doesn't look warm to me, looks like it would be rather cold under that high.

Wrong chart time.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Sheldon Cooper

[Nimbusman]

1 hour ago, Southender said:

So as I'm bored, I have literally looked through every HRES model to find some crumbs for our region regards tomorrow...

The way I see it is the band of snow (weakening all the time) will head South and then more South West into Mids/Wales and on the whole unless you are more North West based, it will miss us bar the odd flake.

The only crumb and it is a very small one (about enough to feed an ant) is perhaps we should look more towards the Southern North Sea/Estuary Friday evening into early hours Saturday. Winds should swing somewhere between NE'ly-E'ly at this time and there is a small window and chance of some instability sparking some wintry showers to be pulled across some parts of the region, as the band to the west slides away SW.

That's about all I can find I'm afraid, unless anything changes next couple of runs.

 

Unfortunately I agree, this event has the hallmarks of another load of snow for the NW and West Midlands AGAIN! To be fair I had written off the next couple of weeks for any chance of snowfall in this region anyway so expectations were kept low.
 

Let’s see what the SSW dispenses in the next week or so

Edited January 7, 2021 by Nimbusman

[Polaris]

21 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Not that unusual. 

Madrid is inland and 2500asl.

London, for example,is about 30asl.

That unusual? Madrid is about to be impacted by the highest snowfall since the 1960s 

I would say that’s quite something/spectacular in fact. 

[Nick F]

Iridescent cloud above the snowfields of my back garden just now. Temperature still only 0.7C here.

[weathertoski]

2 hours ago, Snipper said:

Deep one to.

Big flakes though, I'm happy!

[Polaris]

Highest Snowfall in 60 years about to grip large swathes of Spain. 
 

 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Sorry for not feeling it at the moment but after all this is done I can see January coming in around Average CET wise for Southern England, maybe a little bit below for the Midlands and below for Scotland

Totally agree with your sentiments...not seeing anything in the models in FI, maybe transient wedges of HP to the north but becoming somewhat more Atlantic dominated and the further south you are then well...

I put January down as a 4.2c in the CET thread and might not be too far off? so difficult to get any degree of of cold for a sustained period in a winter month now days, and basically 25th Dec to the next few days has been pushing it so was bound to become less cold at sometime, we'll see what the SSW brings but I don't have great hopes particularly if the States goes cold.

[Paul Sherman]

18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Iridescent cloud above the snowfields of my back garden just now. Temperature still only 0.7C here.

Snowfields Big LOLS Nick

You make it sound so romantic and dramatic 

Enjoy and make sure you get out in it with yer boy

[Cableguy]

The sun's out, that'll do for me, roll on spring.

[Eagle Eye]

If we can't have Winter at least let it Warm up and we can begin storm season.

 

[Stu_London]

sunny and fresh here - around 2C

I could live without snow if most of the days in winter were like this.

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, Southender said:

So as I'm bored, I have literally looked through every HRES model to find some crumbs for our region regards tomorrow...

The way I see it is the band of snow (weakening all the time) will head South and then more South West into Mids/Wales and on the whole unless you are more North West based, it will miss us bar the odd flake.

The only crumb and it is a very small one (about enough to feed an ant) is perhaps we should look more towards the Southern North Sea/Estuary Friday evening into early hours Saturday. Winds should swing somewhere between NE'ly-E'ly at this time and there is a small window and chance of some instability sparking some wintry showers to be pulled across some parts of the region, as the band to the west slides away SW.

That's about all I can find I'm afraid, unless anything changes next couple of runs.

 

To add to that if you cross reference  wind direction, precip type and intensity it’s showing a window of convection off the North Sea in those NNE/NE winds from around 9pm Friday until around 3am Saturday of sleety/snow. Mainly for north and east Kent region. Possibly London region at the very end. Maybe a dusting?
 

Also there looks to be more wind sheer than earlier in the week which can impact intensity of showers due to less fetch. 

Slight change in wind direction though will make a big difference as to who might see this. And as we all know showers can pop up all the time in that kind of set up. 
 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Coopsy

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

To add to that if you cross reference  wind direction, precip type and intensity it’s showing a window of convection off the North Sea in those NNE/NE winds from around 9pm Friday until around 3am Saturday of sleety/snow. Mainly for north and east Kent region. Possibly London region at the very end. Maybe a dusting?
 

Slight change in wind direction though will make a big difference as to who might see this. And as we all know showers can pop up all the time in that kind of set up. 

Yes. Exactly what I was referring to. A slim chance, but better than what is coming from the North in my opinion.

[Coopsy]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Yes. Exactly what I was referring to. A slim chance, but better than what is coming from the North in my opinion.

I just re read your message and realised I basically said exactly the same as you just a lot more long winded

I agree I’d take that over a decaying front any day as there’s always surprises,  as a few lucky people saw this week. 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

thoughts on tonight's precip slipping further south and east? Im right on the margin (Chilterns)- GFS seems to sho it covering me - but the Icon, Arome, Arpege are less confident?

[SMU]

1.4c & blue skies appearing-

going to be very cold tonight!!