Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can't help but chuckle at those suggesting this is "nailed on" now, after the complete despair in here last night when just about every model collapsed the high. The GFS & ECM were fairly big outliers, indeed the EC Det was in a minority cluster later on in the run.

How anyone can see an ensemble chart with a spread that large and say the pattern is "nailed on" boggles the mind. Will it be turning colder again? Yes. I think we can be certain of that, will it be bitterly cold & snowy? Possibly, but that remains a lower probability at the moment. 

Certainly some beautiful synoptics & snow charts out in the extended this morning, but until we start seeing more support for it, it's difficult to say exactly where we're heading.

Indeed, I am surprised at the naivety of some normally level-headed posters this morning  It is an exciting time in the models though with lots of scope for sustained cold. As Nick says though there are many, many hurdles to clear.

Should be a fun/maddening week!  

[markw2680]

28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Now we are BOOMING well talking!! Finally a good all round set of runs !!! ️

Common mate look at the date it’s like 14 days away!! Not going to happen is it

[Aaron Roberts]

Really interesting model watching at the moment, and we appreciate the more experienced members of the forum giving their expertise. 

Can anyone clarify what is going to happen on Thursday? And it's implications of either or (more mild/less mild) as by looking at snow depth charts for the 21st when we can't seem to forecast 4 days ahead is confusing for us less experienced members! We all know snow forecast charts for the 21st probably won't verify (but I hope they do!)

[Jamboperth11]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Common mate look at the date it’s like 14 days away!! Not going to happen is it

Where can I find they maps? Just to check East Scotland at that time.. 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Aaron Roberts said:

Really interesting model watching at the moment, and we appreciate the more experienced members of the forum giving their expertise. 

Can anyone clarify what is going to happen on Thursday? And it's implications of either or (more mild/less mild) as by looking at snow depth charts for the 21st when we can't seem to forecast 4 days ahead is confusing for us less experienced members! We all know snow forecast charts for the 21st probably won't verify (but I hope they do!)

Thursday remains pretty uncertain, though the FAX chart stalls the warm front across the central bulk of the UK. Snow event possible for Scotland, N England & NE England with scope for significant snowfall across some areas, especially across hills. 

It all depends on timing. If the front moves in faster then it'll be a quick transition back to rain & less snowfall, if it slows/stalls as per UKV/FAX then it could be quite the snow event!

[Methuselah]

Far to many 'BOOMs', back-slapping and willy waving in here, IMO... I'm nae gonna get mine out (my BOOM, that is!) until I see all the snow with my own eyes!

[Blessed Weather]

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Edited January 11, 2021 by Blessed Weather