Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Notty]

GFS 06z a little more progressive with the front this week

06z- 

00z - 

[Anthony Burden]

Charts and ensembles all heading south in terms of temperatures,all though a few days later 

than anticipated I believe surprises will be happening this week temperatures wise and the 

white stuff.Could be on to some very special winter wonderland occasions

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

It never seems to be plain sailing getting cold into the UK does it?

The hang back west of the jet returning south after looping round the upper level high over Greenland and the turn westerly of the jet too far north over the UK on 00z EC is highlighting the risk of delaying the cold setting in and certainly not allowing the deep cold to get down across the UK, with low pressure too far west along with low pressure trying to phase from the SW too, as illustrated on the EC jet stream chart for Wednesday next week.

00z GEM offers the cleanest route to deep cold with the jet turning westerly further south after coming down from Greenland.

Lots of complications to be ironed out in getting the cold in from the north next week, with lows dropping down from the NW with the northern arm of the jet buckling upstream and looping around Greenland, then lows moving east across the Atlantic on weaker southern arm of jet trying to phase with these lows dropping down.

If only getting deep cold to the UK could be easy!

Lots of swings in model output to come as they try to resolve the jet configuration and where the lows are placed.

 

Nick, bet you love it . Working with charts and trying to find that elusive pot of gold. Certainly better prospects for snowy spell than the past few winters for Europe generally. Lots of swings to contend with. Hopefully, should get a view from the team over here soon but think they are rather baffled to the outcome.

c

 

[Battleground Snow]

Para is very snowy for many at 60-72 hours @sheikhy, crazy differences from the OP at that range

Even London on the mix

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Frostbite1980]

First signs of the AO going more neutral?

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is very snowy for many at 60-72 hours @sheikhy, crazy differences from the OP at that range

Yeh dunno whats happened to the op to be fair cos on the 06z the op moved towards the fax so i expected more snow to show!!its going to be another going down to the wire event!!!the paralell is actually the furthest west compared to all other models!

[DJ Fart]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

I'll be using these over ECM 

Nice to see the Colchester snow shield in full operation there!  Ha ha!

[danm]

2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

GFS asks us to believe there will be 6 hours of snow on the 21st January.....

What were you saying about the M4 corridor......?

Looks more like the A14 corridor.

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is very snowy for many at 60-72 hours @sheikhy, crazy differences from the OP at that range

and quite different to the OP already at that range

[sheikhy]

Para looks wayy more colder and more amplified across norway at 90 hours compared to the op

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Para looks wayy more colder and more amplified across norway at 90 hours compared to the op

Sat event also not showing on the Op, but is it right?

[That ECM]

06z giving the worriers something to keep them going.

[Notty]

Channel low about to spin up and drag in the colder air on // ?
 

[DJ Fart]

36 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

That front appears to be another 50 or so miles further west, so it's anyone's guess what and where what will fall at the moment, just remember what happened to that front 5 days ago over the north of England, it just froze when expected to drift south.

Yes, and the not too distant memory of that low pressure system which, at one point, ECM had up to 15cm for the south east...ended up drifting south and missing us completely.  

[DIS1970]

Looking like plain old rain from Thursday onwards everywhere - except for the very mountain tops over Scotland on this 0600 GFS output. Snowfall will be on most members magic wands waiting for flakes to fall i think, looking at these latest charts.

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

06z giving the worriers something to keep them going.

Should Just be okay... Para is cleaner in that regard

Para has a very ECM look to it at 126

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Methuselah]

Interesting GEFS ensemble set... With the operational and control runs (the runs that matter?) running so cold, it's hardly any surprise that the mean, along with all the 'tampered' runs will be warmer... What use is the mean?

    

And the NH profile continues to shape up nicely:

    

    

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a dogs dinner this is going to be. Shortwaves everywhere on this 6z run. It’s like watching the lottery!! 

[warrenb]

Heights over Europe again, if that is there, the low (trough) that is over us cannot move through, either pushing the high to the west further west, or becoming stationary. As we were a few weeks back with the trough stuck over us.

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Looking like plain old rain from Thursday onwards everywhere - except for the very mountain tops over Scotland on this 0600 GFS output. Snowfall will be on most members magic wands waiting for flakes to fall i think, looking at these latest charts.

The main period of interest is T+180 onwards and the 06zGFS isn’t even out that far yet?

[Timmytour]

46 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well the 500 mb anomaly charts continue to look promising if you are of the cold preference.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

the NOAA 8-14, and with the ridge showing mostly west of the UK thus the country sites on the trough side.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

All 3 continue to show a meridional flow as does 

I love the boom charts and all that kind of stuff, just because there is a thrill in the chase alone.  But in terms of hopes for a reality of cold, this is one of the best posts I've seen in a long time. Suddenly transports a cold spell from being "that'll be nice if it happens" to "there's a real chance we could actually get a cold spell here!".  Over the years I've seen JH's cautions consistently bear fruit, so this definitely makes me sit up!

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Heights over Europe again, if that is there, the low (trough) that is over us cannot move through, either pushing the high to the west further west, or becoming stationary. As we were a few weeks back with the trough stuck over us.

We have already established these heights are not going to magically disappear and may not hamper the cold depending on where they are moved too.

I am not sure why you keep offering the same commentary on each run. The Iberian High is not going to be magically replaced by a trough.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Heights over Europe again, if that is there, the low (trough) that is over us cannot move through, either pushing the high to the west further west, or becoming stationary. As we were a few weeks back with the trough stuck over us.

I am starting to question the charts you are looking at?


 

[sheikhy]

Para looks like its about to give us the best of both worlds!!snow at the end of the week then straight into more cold air coming down from the north with hardly any milder period inbetween!!

[Tim Bland]

Para 06z Vs 00z ...looks good to me. Landing point still 20th /  21st