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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

BlueHedgehog074
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Looks like there’s the potential for a named storm next week and a lot more rain for some areas that really don’t need it at the moment after the flooding recently. Definitely something to watch.

 

Who would have thought that with such a weak PV?!

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topo Enthusiast

topo

Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
Posted

GFS parallel retreating to GFS op. I believe we will see UKMO doing the same in the morning

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
8 minutes ago, Don said:

But no cigar, soo frustrating! 

Quite, @Don

The last time we had significant snow in March 2018, those of us who were in for the ride were strapped in in late December and followed the evolution for two months before it delivered.  Is a SSW that in the end may only deliver 70% chance of significant chance of snow in the south all we can look to now?  It seems so in the past decade (Dec 2017 the only exception), so maybe long chases like this one are how it is - we don’t know how this one ends yet (I think it might be different in different parts of the country) .

Now I’ll take a goosey at the pub run...

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Looks like there’s the potential for a named storm next week and a lot more rain for some areas that really don’t need it at the moment after the flooding recently. Definitely something to watch.

3C8A087A-EB2F-4810-8380-B2F1C751E72D.thumb.png.02735017bca2dc23a1e24b2621ba26ec.pngFF77B06E-F9E5-4352-8344-B76A84CDF8C4.thumb.png.0a81356c3f30e4c760a915f02126a48e.png

Yes there is. Mabye rainy Jane or 10 day Gladys would be appropriate

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, topo said:

GFS parallel retreating to GFS op. I believe we will see UKMO doing the same in the morning

Are the doors really closing on winter 2020/21?!

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

18z has worse 850s over us but better WAA over the west Atlantic. Swings and roundabouts but closer to ukmo

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I wouldn't say that just yet, it's got a 1045mb high over Greenland here

 

gfsnh-0-102.png

gfsnh-0-108 (2).png

Too soon to say it will follow, it could but hasn't yet... 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don’t think of the Azores high as a driver, it will shift when the pattern shifts!

I agree with this. The Azores high is semi permanent feature that just sits in position when there is no external forcing. It essentially an 'average" feature. It can play a bigger part when "moved on"....like on those hot summer days, but for now its passive rather than active..

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

I have an opinion on this run at T+ 162.  Hmm. What is going to happen next?  Normally easy to say. 

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted

I have model watched over 20 years and it is not often I can’t read what exactly is going to happen next. That tells me something. Neither do the models and a divergence erupting.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I have an opinion on this run at T+ 162.  Hmm. What is going to happen next?  Normally easy to say. 

I notice that low just anchors out west instead of barreling towards the UK?

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Quite, @Don

The last time we had significant snow in March 2018, those of us who were in for the ride were strapped in in late December and followed the evolution for two months before it delivered.  Is a SSW that in the end may only deliver 70% chance of significant chance of snow in the south all we can look to now?  It seems so in the past decade (Dec 2017 the only exception), so maybe long chases like this one are how it is - we don’t know how this one ends yet (I think it might be different in different parts of the country) .

Now I’ll take a goosey at the pub run...

 

Possibly, but if SSW's become more frequent in future, we could be ok!  BTW, I missed out on the snow in December 2017 by about 15 miles!

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Parallel run is still showing a potential snow event next weekend.

31F67E51-BD11-477B-AE0D-17AE0CB9A5E4.thumb.png.85b50d5b2936f575ff74c3605bf5ebd7.png5568BFCB-DD48-407E-AB39-118A54EF5B13.thumb.png.c48c66bed935ab6e924037e178c5985d.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

UKMO 12z at T144 and GFS and // 18z at T138:

927CC8A8-C102-4380-8DB3-14271323FC8B.thumb.gif.c58105726a4478526facd07e35269e6b.gifFFA7405A-FF64-4CF2-B521-31599EACA504.thumb.png.fb0b5cbd8ced79650f45d38d93e28d45.png3FEF0780-1A02-4337-A3C7-5168F0E8CC4D.thumb.png.c5f72272995f399657f7e970d62241a2.png

It looks to me important that the high doesn’t get closed off here, and remains an omega block as per UKMO.  Squeaky bum time now, it either goes right or wrong from this point IMHO...

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

I have a couple of thoughts about this run........

one  of them suggests this is an anomaly and the low crosses the Atlantic.

the other outside chance suggests reamplification of an Atlantic block closer to our west that may start showing up in ensembles and future runs.

just another scenario to keep an interest

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Im afraid to say ukmo is the outlier here!!!!we will find out on the 00zs!!!if the other models move towards it in the morning then bingo we are heading to a more snowy period!!!if not then the search goes on!!im saying ukmo is the outlier right now!!

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Popular Post
Posted

20191221_104955.thumb.jpg.f9edb4dc7c22533f203e041ffc0001a8.jpgmy fridge magnet of Michael fish just fell off the fridge ,somethings a foot , fax chart for Thursday just updated .can someone get lucky nxt weekend, best of luck for all cheers ,stay safe and enjoy our hobby .

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sub zero Apprentice

sub zero

Posted
  • Location: nottingham
  • Weather Preferences: ice days,and snow,snow,snow...
  • Location: nottingham
Posted

Really surprised that no one has mentioned the blizzard showing across most of the country at 108, if this was to come off...

WOW....

gfs-2-108.png

gfs-0-108.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

No real change in the signature pattern by d7, but changes per run as to timing, phasing and disruption of the features, mini-waves and troughs.

d7> 1467211386_gfseu-0-168(3).thumb.png.00cc3a218ddd9494d6cbbb79cf424fab.png12z>1755384566_gfseu-0-174(2).thumb.png.1f0d464f98cda95d44e8341dd19d5e78.png

That will effect the cold flow on this run, that disrupts the cold a bit sooner, 12h earlier with the SW flow. At this range I suspect we will need a few more days to nail the details, that is assuming this is the correct outcome. I certainly have never seen this setup before so we only have the consistency of the models to guide us as to its certainty? There are a few hold outs on the 12z gefs, about 20%.

By d10:

295357148_gfsnh-0-234(1).thumb.png.1bf0becc37cbdbe7fb50ce07887b35d1.png 12z>1008013410_gfsnh-0-240(6).thumb.png.08a4d9a7e68319b29d234cc4d576f5ec.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I have a couple of thoughts about this run........

one  of them suggests this is an anomaly and the low crosses the Atlantic.

the other outside chance suggests reamplification of an Atlantic block closer to our west that may start showing up in ensembles and future runs.

just another scenario to keep an interest

Is this the back of what i have just said Ed,...the low anchoring out west could be far enough west on subsequent runs that a ridge of sorts might starting showing?

the 12z gfs/p was showing something like this and ended up with a block to our east in fl.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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