Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Clear to see odd one out. 

Three different timeframes ???

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by bluearmy

[sebastiaan1973]

8 hours ago, markw2680 said:

What we have to remember here is that just a very small change early on in the run can make massive differences later on, especially atm. Things are more volatile than usual. I personally think there will be some big swings in the output over the next couple of days. Nothing is nailed atm. I wouldn’t wana be doing the country file forcast tomorrow that’s for sure. Keep the faith people there changes afoot 

Well. I don't think so, otherwise we should have seen this in the plume.

Latest EC240h average from this morning and yesterday evening shows little difference.

Edited January 17, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[mulzy]

The mean ext EPS continues to show strong Iberian heights before flattening out in extreme FI.  Nothing to be particularity excited by at this stage.  Indications of possible re-amplification of the Atlantic sector in extreme FI but far from conclusive as one would expect at that range.

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The mean ext EPS continues to show strong Iberian heights before flattening out in extreme FI.  Nothing to be particularity excited by at this stage.  Indications of possible re-amplification of the Atlantic sector in extreme FI but far from conclusive as one would expect at that range.

The ext clusters show the pattern anything but flat (I realise you were referencing Iberian heights as much as anything)  with euro troughing ( notable) as likely as Iberian ridging ...... some way to go on the back end of the month outlook 

Edited January 17, 2021 by bluearmy

[Penrith Snow]

ECM is very good for us in the North West, days of cold north westerlies with modest cold becoming entrenched.

GFS pure pants and should go and sit on the naughty step with a dunces hat on  

MetO really ramping northern snow up last night, going to be an interesting week once we get the mild crud out the way

Andy

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Penrith Snow

[Penrith Snow]

Just seen the later stages of ECM and not good. Oh well plenty of time for that to change. Damn Iberia High again

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well well well ECM...

Having second thoughts?

Certainly a colder 00z run than yesterday's offerings...

Shouldn't come as a surprise many changes up until 19rh then I think we shall be in business 

[Gowon]

36 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The mean ext EPS continues to show strong Iberian heights before flattening out in extreme FI.  Nothing to be particularity excited by at this stage.  Indications of possible re-amplification of the Atlantic sector in extreme FI but far from conclusive as one would expect at that range.

Remember those promising EPS in December? .. "Slow and steady wins the race" ? - my bottom!  

 

[winterof79]

22 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

ECM is very good for us in the North West, days of cold north westerlies with modest cold becoming entrenched.

GFS pure pants and should go and sit on the naughty step with a dunces hat on  

MetO really ramping northern snow up last night, going to be an interesting week once we get the mild crud out the way

Andy

 

 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

And zero from South East as per usual 

A lot can and will change but ECM hopped aboard southerly tracking low next weekend albeit pretty weak.

[IDO]

The ecm op for London at d8 is the coldest solution, and probably worth ignoring that until it gets support in the means:

Looking at the d7 chart, it looks like happenstance, with the low favouring a flow more from the north, whereas GFS sends the cold away as a mini-ridge builds the SW flow in; gfs> ecm>

No doubt such fine detail will take a while to converge (gefs have a cluster support for colder to hold until d9, but some bring in milder air quicker than the gfs op).

The gfs op suggests rain and wind for the south and west from d6 (160+ mm in places in Wales for next 10-days!), obviously better chances further north with elevation for transient snowier conditions, but IMBY the 0z is awful and the mean suggests it is no aberration. After next week the south heading towards average or milder for the end of Jan. The clusters are trending there at d16, and TBH looking at all those d16 members not one (maybe one at a push) suggests we are in the throws of a massive warming!

>>> 

That may be GFS going default on us, or more likely that the tPV is crossing from Siberia to Canada, promoting zonality to our north^^^. Tentative signs of a euro trough not as obvious but is a possibility. 

It does appear that the first warming has landed but has not been a tsunami of cold and snow for those south of the Midlands. It is hard for the north to miss out even in poor SSWE's so some interest there. 

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes a much better EC with colder air persisting until day 9..

Perhaps the first hints the local forecast is picking up on colder weather from thurs with mention of cold with wintry showers ....

Certainly a snowy outlook at altitude locally if we can get the precip...

Looks ok for Scotland and highest hills far north, but for most flooding looks like the headline this week.  Even if it does turn to snow for short periods of time it’s going to thaw or get washed away very quickly. It’s certainly not shaping up to be the ‘cold spell’ we have been hunting for 2 weeks after the SSW

[MJB]

Deepest FI and JFF - PARA brings winter back 

Edited January 17, 2021 by MJB

[MJB]

Quite clearly a warm up from 24th to 29th then a decline thereafter 

[Guest]

Had  a snowy fix yesterday morning, but it has to be said for the majority of the UK to date the SSW has been a very DAMP squib!

 And unfortunately all barring  transient wintry hazards looks set to continue!

[nick sussex]

Not great to see the ECM on the colder side of its ensembles given the GFS op and its GEFS support a change in jet axis running sw to ne .

There is a certain inevitability about the evolution. You can’t sustain the jet south of the UK once the Greenie Ridge heads off west unless you get more forcing on the pattern in Western Europe .

Once the Arctic high heads in the opposite direction the games up . 

Overall a disappointing start to the day for coldies . Hopefully some better runs to come !

Edited January 17, 2021 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, MJB said:

Deepest FI and and JFF - PARA brings winter back 

Ties in with the eps clusters and interesting that the cold comes back with very weak wedging to our nw .....it takes very little to retrogress the Iberian heights to allow the euro trough to dig 

[markw2680]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well. I don't think so, otherwise we should have seen this in the plume.

Latest EC240h average from this morning and yesterday evening shows little difference.

Give it chance it was only last night I said it. Next few days I said not few hours! 
mist only my opinion as there’s changes all over the place, only a fool would write things off at present 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

 

This is something to keep and eye on.

Ive picked 2 GFS ensemble members showing the north eastward push (or lack of) of milder Atlantic air over the UK Sunday next week (168)

You can see the two extremes, looks like the ECM suite has pulled back on the likelihood of that milder air coming in. Its all down to the interaction between the Greeny Ridge and Atlantic Troughs.

Atlantic held back

Atlantic pushes in

A week is a long time in weather forecasting in these situations. Relatively small changes in the broader pattern can have much bigger effects locally (on a global scale). Its not like we have a clear signal of a major pattern change just tweaks to what we know is coming.

And once again boundary snowfall is a high risk somewhere next weekend.

[nick sussex]

Not the best of starts to the GFS 06 hrs run .

The Greenie Ridge is even further to the nw . Quite an unusual set up with a low deepening over the UK . This caused by those parcels of deeper vorticity heading sw and helping to blow the low up .

Edited January 17, 2021 by nick sussex

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Not the best of starts to the GFS 06 hrs run .

The Greenie Ridge is even further to the nw . Quite an unusual set up with a low deepening over the UK . This caused by those parcels of deeper vorticity heading sw and helping to blow the low up .

not for SW France maybe, but still going for snow on Thurs! mainly for N/E areas but been consistant now

[chris55]

Just throwing this out there, my FANTASY ISLAND Sunday morning punt...

GfS sniffing an easterly.....Ill get my coat...

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not for SW France maybe, but still going for snow on Thurs! mainly for N/E areas but been consistant now

All my posts are in relation to the UK not France unless I clearly single my area out . I’ve explained this many times . As for those so called snow charts  best to take them with a pinch of salt until much nearer the time . The GFS has the Greenie Ridge further to the nw than its earlier run , not what you want to see .

[Anthony Burden]

ECM showing the extended cold spell starting Thursday next week,Fax 120hrs show nicely 

the track of low pressure and influence of Greenland high.Matt Hugo mentioned that SSW

still to show itself on future charts/Synoptics.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECM showing the extended cold spell starting Thursday next week,Fax 120hrs show nicely 

the track of low pressure and influence of Greenland high.Matt Hugo mentioned that SSW

still to show itself on future charts/Synoptics.

Extended cold spell?

Where are you seeing this?