Storm Christoph

[Jo Farrow]

Flooding preparations  info- this was a two parter , first about before flooding adn the second part is about during and after flooding. 

Preparations for all - Flooding UK Part 1

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A two-part look at flooding in the UK, how to prepare, what to consider about your location, making a flood plan and where to get help and advice from before a flood occurs.

 

[Jo Farrow]

rainfall totals forecast maps for 24 hours 03Z

9am Tues

0 warnings, 10 flood alerts for Wales https://flood-warning.naturalresources.wales/

11 flood warnings and 112 flood alerts England  https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings

0 warnings, 5 alert areas over all of southern Scotland https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/

 

 

[Supacell]

It has been raining here since yesterday evening with some heavy falls overnight. River levels are high and we're before this rain even started with the River Derwent already on flood alert as of 6pm yesterday. Considering all the rain forecast and the fact part of the Peak District drains into the Derwent it is a worrying time. Even more so further north across South and West Yorkshire with towns such as Hebden Bridge looking in the firing line again .

Keep up to date with flood warnings here and stay safe 

Flood warnings for England - GOV.UK

FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK

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Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

 

[Badgers01]

The precipitation maps above not sure which model show much higher totals of Lake District particularly N Lakes than some I have seen - wonder if we will get an amber warning into Cumbria later ? 

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

The precipitation maps above not sure which model show much higher totals of Lake District particularly N Lakes than some I have seen - wonder if we will get an amber warning into Cumbria later ? 

The Met Office are always saying that all the colours are warnings of severe weather. There is a guide. Any updates usually appear around now/10:30am. 

I suppose local knowledge, signing up for the flood warning alerts and only essential travel is key in this.  Being flooded out of your property at this time of year/in pandemic will be awful. Having to get rescued by the fire service because you drove into floodwaters, determined to nip to the shops in all this, might be another thing.

Turn around , don't drown (or just #StayatHome)

What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast

 

[Jo Farrow]

There is now a FLOODWATCH thread https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/95010-flood-watch/?tab=comments#comment-4380365

For details of local rivers and ground conditions, fine to still post here in Storm Christoph but might be a good area to see flooding updates without looking through all regional discussions. 

You can keep an eye on your local river levels https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/  but do signup for ENV A. warning alerts and keep an eye on what your Local authority/Council are advising. 

 

[Osbourne One-Nil]

1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

Flooding preparations  info- this was a two parter , first about before flooding adn the second part is about during and after flooding. 

Preparations for all - Flooding UK Part 1

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A two-part look at flooding in the UK, how to prepare, what to consider about your location, making a flood plan and where to get help and advice from before a flood occurs.

 

That's my car!! 

My thoughts go to anyone who's at risk of flooding today. An utterly awful feeling of inevitable dread comes with it. I suspect I'm going to be ok today and I certainly won't be parking my car in that car park again. 

It's raining steadily here but not a puff of wind!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

One query - does the amber warning relate to the level of disruption rather than the actual volume of rain? I know the two are linked but it would take less rain to cause significant disruption in Leeds, for example, than it would in, say, Shap. 

[matty40s]

9 minutes ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

One query - does the amber warning relate to the level of disruption rather than the actual volume of rain? I know the two are linked but it would take less rain to cause significant disruption in Leeds, for example, than it would in, say, Shap. 

The warnings are generated on a mix of impacts to transport, homes, infrastructure and life, along with the actual likelyhood ofb it actually happening.

My view of the extension of the Amber is that already high river levels and saturated ground further East and into Lincs will lead to not quite as much rain having the same impacts.

[MAF]

Piers, i think you meant to write 

"that was my car!" 

you make a good point about disruption versus volume. maybe the warnings should be more concentrated at local smaller areas which are prone to flooding rather than larger ones. Bit like giving a warning for London. yet it may not affect the whole of the area.

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

One query - does the amber warning relate to the level of disruption rather than the actual volume of rain? I know the two are linked but it would take less rain to cause significant disruption in Leeds, for example, than it would in, say, Shap. 

The rain ones are made with close discussions with the Env Agencies. So amount of rain might qualify the Yellow warning (I imagine) with fallen leaves in autumn causing blockages etc, a general highlight to people that it's a bit worse than seasonal conditions.

 but then the conditions on the ground, the existing river levels and tide conditions, AND what starts happening can bump a warning up a level. 

We've seen a red warning suddenly appear for rain over south Wales, as torrents poured off the BRecons.

The matrix system is supposed to explain it all How likely is HEAVY RAIN against what will be the IMPACTS but it does sometimes seem it is a game to be played to fit.

This week's amber has HEAVY RAIN high likelihood of happening with medium impacts, it could shift up to very high likeihood and remain as Amber. The qualifications of what medium and high imapcts are , are listed in a MO guide on their website.

Decision making - Severe weather warnings and The Matrix

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Yellow, Amber and Red warnings - all warn of severe weather but not all yellow warnings are equal as the UK uses an impact based system. Extra understanding is needed for good decision making.

 

[Jo Farrow]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

Piers, i think you meant to write 

"that was my car!" 

you make a good point about disruption versus volume. maybe the warnings should be more concentrated at local smaller areas which are prone to flooding rather than larger ones. Bit like giving a warning for London. yet it may not affect the whole of the area.

That's the hard part about the warnings, especially snow. Within that warning area, there is the risk of...

and when people don't see snow, or high gusts and worse thunderstorms they say the foreacst was wrong. 

Thunderstorm warning areas are a nightmare as most people do miss them but if you get one there could be all sorts of problems. That is a major issue of warning and shower communication

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Ah yes - I've seen those before but had forgotten where!

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

Piers, i think you meant to write 

"that was my car!" 

Actually, I should have said it was my wife's car. I have a Volvo of course, called Lovejoy. 

[Darren Vidamour]

Jo if there's a danger to life surely the warning should be Red?

[A Face like Thunder]

35 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

That's the hard part about the warnings, especially snow. Within that warning area, there is the risk of...

and when people don't see snow, or high gusts and worse thunderstorms they say the foreacst was wrong. 

Thunderstorm warning areas are a nightmare as most people do miss them but if you get one there could be all sorts of problems. That is a major issue of warning and shower communication

That is the problem. We live in the yellow zone in S Cheshire, but we have seen no rain since daylight and the sun was out for a while earlier!

[Jo Farrow]

16 minutes ago, Darren Vidamour said:

Jo if there's a danger to life surely the warning should be Red?

There is a danger to life crossing a road. These don't work like that.

The "danger to life" phrase used to be saved for reds but it seems to crop up more in recent years. The MO have a set of drop down lists and can chose to add "danger to life" into the warning. All 3 warn of severe weather. People shouldn't be making non-essential journeys. The weather forecast is bad and flooding is likely but you don't tend to see a Red warning until the very worst conditions are imminent (or actually occurring), then no-one should be going out.

[Badgers01]

The main band looks further North than initially forecast looks relatively dry across the Manchester and S Yorks region ..

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, A Face like Thunder said:

That is the problem. We live in the yellow zone in S Cheshire, but we have seen no rain since daylight and the sun was out for a while earlier!

It’s definitely further north than initially forecast 

[Jo Farrow]

Snow warning now across southern Scotland just into northern England with that ongoing rainband interacting with the cold air to the north. Weds pm into Thurs am

MOre of a signal for north Wales on GFS based SR

not interested up to 12z Thurs from UKV over WAles but showing for Southern Uplands and other hills, even into central Scotland and tops of Pennines

Edited January 19, 2021 by Jo Farrow
add UKV

[BurntFishTrousers]

[Badgers01]

The M Office need to get in new designers to improve the communication to the general public. That map with several overlay warnings is bad design and would be confusing to many people! 

[Bellasdad]

20 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

The main band looks further North than initially forecast looks relatively dry across the Manchester and S Yorks region ..

I live in Doncaster and we’ve had a major incident declared for flooding, it’s dry as a bone at the moment with the main rain band much further north according to the radar.

With what we’ve dealt with in previous years people are obviously very worried but the warnings are very confusing at times.

I’m a complete layman when it comes to the weather but I do trust this site for more accurate information than the mainstream ones, which at times do tend to contradict each other.

 I fear us ordinary folk could become complacent with these frequent warnings “crying wolf “ and not take them seriously when the need really does arise.

[Summer Sun]

Virtually all of the amber warning area is dry whilst the yellow warning are is pouring down

[Jo Farrow]

Got a while to go yet and some of these river flooding issues take time as water flows from other wetter areas which are further inland

Edited January 19, 2021 by Jo Farrow

[Badgers01]

8 minutes ago, Bellasdad said:

I live in Doncaster and we’ve had a major incident declared for flooding, it’s dry as a bone at the moment with the main rain band much further north according to the radar.

With what we’ve dealt with in previous years people are obviously very worried but the warnings are very confusing at times.

I’m a complete layman when it comes to the weather but I do trust this site for more accurate information than the mainstream ones, which at times do tend to contradict each other.

 I fear us ordinary folk could become complacent with these frequent warnings “crying wolf “ and not take them seriously when the need really does arise.

I think you are correct precision is really important with these warnings and is sometimes lacking / hope you stay dry and incident free !