Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[weirpig]

I think we are in danger here of micro analysing every run    the angle is slightly different  so the flow is more of an north easterly    the easterly is in   many changes to come regarding the flow etc.   

[radiohead]

Some significant differences on the 18Z already...some areas in that south that had -8 uppers on the 12Z now have -2 at the same timeframe. A 6 degree difference a bit futher north too. Perhaps just a delay though.

[chionomaniac]

I suspect that the cold air will be dragged down to the SE as the run continues and the north/south divide will reduce.

[Geordiesnow]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS looking fine out to 84hrs, more or less the same as the 12z run.

I think we are getting close to the point where at least for the north we are getting close to nailed on now. Still some worries I've got further south, particularly in the SE with the risk of a LP developing to our south and swinging NE/NNE towards the SE before the cold air has the chance to really set in down here. Luckily that could also bring the risk of snow as well into the region but the path is a fine line to tread.

However lets make sure we get the easterly flow in in the first place first.

Yep 18Z shows nicely what a slight change in flow can do so the margin for error is obviously less for those in the SE than for those in NE Scotland. Otherwise looks another good run in respect of the easterly risk coming ever closer. 

[kold weather]

Just now, weirpig said:

I think we are in danger here of micro analysing every run    the angle is slightly different  so the flow is more of an north easterly    the easterly is in any changes to come regarding the flow etc.   

Effectivly what will probably happen on this run will be a milder intrusion into the SE and cold air drops SW instead.

Eventually the LP will shift across and the cold air will come down into the SE after a day or so of moderate rain.

Not the best of runs for the SE, but much better further north.

[winterof79]

Just now, weirpig said:

I think we are in danger here of micro analysing every run    the angle is slightly different  so the flow is more of an north easterly    the easterly is in   many changes to come regarding the flow etc.   

Deffo. See you in morning guys as I'm not up for the mental torture of its a great chart.... No it's a downgrade.... Enjoy your night folks 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

I think we are in danger here of micro analysing every run    the angle is slightly different  so the flow is more of an north easterly    the easterly is in   many changes to come regarding the flow etc.   

It's no danger and its part of the excitement when we have these synoptics on show

[Fozfoster]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I think we are in danger here of micro analysing every run    the angle is slightly different  so the flow is more of an north easterly    the easterly is in   many changes to come regarding the flow etc.   

Exactly if you wanted every model to Churn out the same result from now on till T0 wouldn’t this hobby be boring

[ICE COLD]

Everyone in cold uppers by T144 . Remember ECM and UKMO don’t bring the cold in until t144 so it’s probably just timing issue

[Shunter]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

Could be a tricky set-up for the SE

 

It’s been like that time after time this winter in the far SE. Everything seems to move North nearer to T0.

What is causing the LP to stick around rather than fade away East?

[radiohead]

The fine line between heavy snow and heavy rain! Should turn colder for all later though...

[Snowman.]

Just now, weirpig said:

I think we are in danger here of micro analysing every run    the angle is slightly different  so the flow is more of an north easterly    the easterly is in   many changes to come regarding the flow etc.   

For those in the SE the stake is high.

Do we see a wash out or some actual decent snow?

The 18z is a worry in every way possible considering that other runs aren't still fully on board.

 

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I suspect that the cold air will be dragged down to the SE as the run continues and the north/south divide will reduce.

Yeah I agree, its on the face of it much worse than most of the 12z suite for the SE and the north is going to get smashed in just such a set-up.

Unfortunately for us down in the SE, we are probably going to lose the easterly and instead have to make do with an onshore flow around the LP instead as I don't think that feature will move too quickly. So we may be depending on fronts circulating around the low instead.

[MJB]

The LP is pushing up again NOT what we want 

[Mike Poole]

Where have i seen this before? Oh, yes the GFS 12z run.  T144 on pub run, getting too close to ignore now folks...

 

[ICE COLD]

Snow storm

[kold weather]

The general set-up is actually VERY close to the 12z GFS, its just the LP is probably focused 100 miles further north, which has a really drastic effect in the SE in particular.

GFS 18z is almost certainly overblowing that LP by the way.

I've never personally seen a LP from that position in that sort of flow go below 985mbs like the 18z shows by the way.

[weirpig]

Lol  that low is defying  physics  its making its way across the country from east to west.  Amazing amounts of snow for some.   IF it were to happen

[snowice]

There you go se

[Howie]

Is there a reason why the low doesn't want to go cleanly east? Like what is actually stopping it? 

[radiohead]

Oh my word, that low is deepening.

[sheikhy]

Is it me or has the 18z.lost the plot lol

[chionomaniac]

GFS 18Z. One word. Messy. 

[Man With Beard]

I think we need to be aware - the GFS is playing its favourite game of going bonkers developing a deep low for no obvious reason:

[kold weather]

I think this run is in lala land to be honest.

No way do we get a 980mbs low in that position developing in that way.

To the bin it goes...sadly for many!