Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[GSP]

This is becoming a very complex feature, that’s for sure!

 

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Snow storm

LOL thats the 12z

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

The LP is pushing up again NOT what we want 

Depends on where you live aswell mind, for some that would be a snowfest.

Its just a another variation of the trend of cold easterly runs, it's a good run as far as I'm concerned. The main questions will be just how quick will the cold air come in, how far south and east the cold gets and what happens after that. Its a case those in the SE the margin of error is much smaller than those in NE Scotland. 

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

I think we need to be aware - the GFS is playing its favourite game of going bonkers developing a deep low for no obvious reason:

Yep. The ghost of Eric Bristow is in da GFS house......again

[Daniel*]

GFS up to its usual tricks with low pressure typically the reality is weaker and further south. 

[Scott Ingham]

Blizzard like conditions for the North.

Squeaky bum time for the South East.

I think we all want the low to correct south east to keep us in a colder easterly flow for longer and unlike us in the North our South East friends are well overdue some snow this winter!

[sheikhy]

Infact i think its lost the plot to such an extent im not  even concerned by this run lol!

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Exactly if you wanted every model to Churn out the same result from now on till T0 wouldn’t this hobby be boring

I’ll take boring after the 12z ec op ......

[Allseasons-Si]

Just got in from work and what a fantastic set of 12z runs,all go for an easterly this weekend,...whoo! hooo!

[Cavehill Snow]

1 hour ago, john mac1 said:

Just lay it on the snow. That will be fine

I remember my mum hanging out washing during the great winters of late 70's / early 80's. Snow was on the ground but the sky was cloudless and temps below zero. Shirts & jumpers etc would have to be brought back into the house as they were stiff like cardboard having frozen over. 

[Djdazzle]

It’s one run. But enough to suggest that this is not even close to being resolved.

[Mike Poole]

T180 leads to an absolutely bonkers combination:

Pick the bones out of that, and i will see you in the morning.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

GFS up to its usual tricks with low pressure typically the reality is weaker and further south. 

The set-up is broadly similar to the 12z GFS, its just it blows up the LP in a rather extreme way.

The risk to the south-east is certainly there though and this has kept cropping up as a risk on a number of the ensembles it has to be said.

[booferking]

That's the danger right there low blows itself up to the south and snow turns to rain in the south definitely wouldn't discount it as quite a few lows have blew themselves up over the uk this winter. 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

LOL thats the 12z

Ooops sorry here’s the 18z still snow thou lol 

[supernova]

The low deepens and pushes slightly north - fine margins. From this...

to this....

But at this range both could be completely wrong by an awful lot more than a hundred miles or so. Not gonna get hung up about such details this far out. Broad direction of travel still cold, but shows how quickly synoptics can turn from great to grating, as if we didn't need reminding. Couple more days of frayed nerves before we know for sure but the chase is fun, I guess. Kind of. 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by supernova

[Ice Day]

Well at 174 we have this difference on the 18z v the GFS 12z

  

I don't think it's an unreasonable assumption to believe this run may be a little off the mark.  Not wishful thinking on my part, it's defying logic and pretty much every run seen over the last few days.  If the GEFS trend the same way, I will become more concerned!

[snowbob]

The gfs is just doing its usual bonkers runs due to an incoming easterly 

stay calm south east it will play ball eventually 

the south east is one hurdle it can’t resist with its mild bias

gfs is always the worst for easterlies every time

Edited February 1, 2021 by snowbob

[MJB]

Another variation and we will see more as we go through the week it's inevitable really with 4 runs ( GFS ) a day 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

That's the danger right there low blows itself up to the south and snow turns to rain in the south definitely wouldn't discount it as quite a few lows have blew themselves up over the uk this winter. 

Exceptionally rare for it to blow up in THAT type of pattern though. I've got to say in all my years on here I've never seen that happen once like that in fact.

Not to say there won't be a low too far north, thats very possible as I've been warning for the last 2 days.

However a sub 980mbs low in that position from that origins and with the set-up as it is a totally extreme solution and therefore has to be thrown into the bin even if the broad strokes are right.

PS - poor run for the SE and south in general, cold but little snow other than the back end of the front that clears out on Saturday evening. Better run north of the Wash and moving WSW from there.

Edited February 1, 2021 by kold weather

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think this run is in lala land to be honest.

No way do we get a 980mbs low in that position developing in that way.

To the bin it goes...sadly for many!

I would not fully discount it, we have seen lows heading up the North Sea after an easterly flow(like it did in Feb 2009 but bought heavy sleet in the NE) but I do agree we do have to bear in mind the GFS can and do blow up low pressure systems too deep and the deeper the low the cold mixes out quicker. 

Maybe the GFS is deepening the low because milder air is mixing in with the cold air and that is something can and does happen anyways. 

Either way, let's not worry too much about the details, too far out for that, aslong as the trough does not become stuck over the UK then it's a good run as far as I'm concerned. 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Most important thing is, the idea of bringing in the cold remains unchanged out to 96 hours. That is the crucial step here. The next episode is how this possible monster of a snowstorm will develop, even if at all! 

Ideally, to mitigate any risk of those mild uppers encroaching up from the S, we need the initial low to flood the colder air in quicker. 

This is model watching of the highest quality. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Djdazzle]

There is normally something which scuppers these easterlies.

We don’t want to see this gaining traction on the 0z runs.

 

[Cloud 10]

Nearly a metre of snow in Eastern Scotland.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I wouldn't trust this run as the gfs always blows up forecasted lows like that only for them to be farts in the wind come the day.