Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[winterfreak]

Just now, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

-14 air into Kent for my Garden of England brethren.  Nice!

About time

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Go on, have a little look.

I looked...

11th Feb. Might just be early enough that the D9 chart would challenge a temperature record. Slack winds, deep upper cold and snow cover...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

For balance, we need to see changes in the 6z if I’m to have any confidence in this upcoming easterly.
 

There’s hardly any proper cold options showing here are there ?

Seen the garden path too many times!

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

-14 air into Kent for my Garden of England brethren.  Nice!

Would i be able to do the penguin walk across the Thames to Essex for my daily exercise? Its only about a mile from where I live

Edited February 2, 2021 by Kentspur

[Guest]

ECM acting like Scrooge on Xmas morning when He realises He's still alive and can't stop giving out gifts!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My lord, what a stunner of an ECM this is. 

Now if the ECM leaped towards the GFS, that’s when it would be squeaky bum time. But it has done the opposite! 

Trying so hard to keep rational, and neutral, as 96 hours is still a long time in this setup. We saw a few wobbles with the BFTE back in 2018, so it’s to be expected. Big runs ahead today. Another 12 hours closer by 6 this evening! 

[sheikhy]

8 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Remember my post from this morning!!well let me bring it up again!!ridge going north into europe cuts off cold flow and we get more air from the med!!more disruption into europe and we get a cleaner arc of cold 850s straight into the uk....

Pretty easy to see again why gfs goes wrong its not just the atlantic its that darn ridge in europe!!gets more favourable alignment and its all systems go!!

[Griff]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Holy cow ECM 00z has outdone 12z... gripping model output at the moment. 

Anyone have access to verification stats (and actually understand them), would they care to explain to me what I'm looking at this morning?

2 pertinent thoughts keep coming to mind, often repeat here lately :

A GFS loses the plot closer to 0 hours and will come back eventually (? ) 

B ECM has been playing catch up with GFS and GEM since December, what chance it has caught up and is now leading the way, or has yet to reach GFS, and will unfortunately follow the GFS as we head towards the weekend? 

Ta

Excellent drama

[Guest]

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z isn't as snowy overall as the 12z run, if you want to find a nitpick negative with that 0z run. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

Who cares as long as that low has deposited snowfall before the cold easterly sets in.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

-12 uppers and low thickness over the N Sea. Not a chance that would be dry.

[JoeShmoe]

Whether it’s right or wrong the GFS could give copious amounts to snow to some parts of the NE UK. Would be snowing there every day for a week starting today ... 

[Chertseystreamer79]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

ALMOST DRY

DEVELOP POLAR LOWS

 

OK GOT IT...THANKS!

[Guest]

That aint Dry!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

How long you been on hear for? 

Take know notice of ppn charts, December 2010 looked bone dry leading up to it, right before Sheffield had 60cm of snow in 24 hours, the midlands and Southern England had 30cm of snow, and northeast and Scotland litterely were digging themselvs out of there houses! 

Don't worry at all, with that air, that cold, it'l be fun and games all the way before you even have to think about sliders 

[Cold Winter]

Very difficult to judge when these flip flopping of patterns start showing up on the models. Normally I’d favour the ECM/UKMO over other models.

However, the GFS was the first to highlight and stick with a potent easterly, and the ECM has been anything but consistent lately. I don’t think we can dismiss the GFS, but I do think it’s over-doing that low towards the end of the weekend/early next week.

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

True. On the face of it, the ECM does look mostly dry. However, models, particular ones that aren’t high resolution, don’t handle shower development very well. Depends on how high surface pressure is and on the exact wind direction but, very cold air over relatively warm sea should be good for shower development. Plus, troughs and other little disturbances can pop up at short range.

[kold weather]

I'm stunned at the differences between the models even at 72hrs!

They basically are struggling to handle a subtle pattern that sees the limpet low weakening over the UK but exactly how it moves seals the fate for the south of England basically.

GFS is still trying to force the western lobe to stay stronger, but weakening all the time and shoves it southwards towards the Atlantic low whilst forcing the Iberian low up into our shores.

The other models are just not buying that solution at all though but each of them also have a very different evolution from the others as well. With that being said they nearly all now keep the UK low together but moving ESE, which on alot of the runs leads to a watered down cold spell further south, but at least we do get there unlike the GFS.

Confidence is now very high for Scotland and the north of England to get a snowy cold spell, but the south is looking ropey still IMO. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[TSNWK]

Day 10 and it would appear that beyond we would see  for the south at least an end..

Frankly in my view I'm more than content to bank ECM a week long severe cold spell.. flush it away quickly and then let's move towards spring.

[Bradowl]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up. 

Set ups like this in past haven't picked up on showery activity till nearer time, even forecasters on beeb have been slow to pick up on it, starting off with a forecast of Snow flurries and we have ended up with a foot of Snow here East of Pennines. 

[mulzy]

In contrast to the GEFS, the EPS mean rock solid.  Very cold days 5-8.  850 Means of -9/-10 widely by day 6/7.

Edited February 2, 2021 by mulzy

[That ECM]

Meto going for a ne wind for Bournemouth on this date. Only one of these shows a ne wind.

[sheikhy]

On another note is there any snow for anyone on the gfs 00z?

[IDO]

The whole GFS suite has gone less cold for the south compared to the 12z from yesterday:

yesterday> 0z>

The control and the op were in the coldest cluster (12z) and probably at the margin of our coldest possible solution so maybe understandable. Unfortunately the op and control are now following the milder option (synoptic) and the op is clearly the worst case scenario in that envelope. 

None of us know which is the right or wrong solution and it is a question of just waiting for the music to stop? Clearly the ecm will give the south 5-7 days of cold and snow and the gfs gives us just a day! I would at this range usually go with the ecm but...