Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

At last continuity from ec op over three runs

with Ukmo, icon and gem support (plus the gfs twins in the ballpark), we need to look at envelopes

we could put ec at the cold end and gfs at the mild - the gefs reveal that the mild end of the envelope could yet be a little further whereas ec is probably as cold as we go. 

Day 6 is a good place to pause methinks ......

By this time tomorrow I'd say we will have consensus over what happens with the LP initially. Will be down to 72 hours then. If UKMO and EC stick with their prognosis then it's goodnight Vienna to the GFS solution (regardless of what the GEFS say because quite frankly they are a pile of crap IMO)

[Guest]

Wow GFS Jackpot to Crackpot in 12hrs, it’s almost like THAT ECM run. Also a big shift in the Ensembles with a much more mobile pattern moving across the Atlantic, trend setter or rank outlier? 
 

Fortunately the other at the moment still appear to be on board agreement although the cold seems a bit less harsh than last nights 12z’s.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s a big concern if GFS picks a different trend. How many times have we seen the other two follow the GFS ?

Not many thankfully. If ecm or Ukmo wasn’t on board then yes. Still not done though but great to see ecm back up Ukmo

[WINTRY WALES]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s a big concern if GFS picks a different trend. How many times have we seen the other two follow the GFS ?

Hmmmmm i cannot think of many within day 5 .....usually if the UKMO differs then we need to worry

[DavidS]

ECM

[bluearmy]

Just now, Alderc said:

Wow GFS Jackpot to Crackpot in 12hrs, it’s almost like THAT ECM run. Also a big shift in the Ensembles with a much more mobile pattern moving across the Atlantic, trend setter or rank outlier? 
 

Fortunately the other at the moment still appear to be on board agreement although the cold seems a bit less harsh than last nights 12z’s.

The Atlantic mobile pattern looks assured - it’s what happens over the arctic and nw Europe that will dictate if that jet heads east or southeast (or even ne) 

[Daniel*]

Another frigid run from ECM temps well below freezing by day. That’s put me at ease somewhat I suppose we can’t 100% discount GFS / GEFS but really looking increasingly isolated and the clock is ticking...

[Weathizard]

It’s nearly holy grail charts for the U.K.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Where's the money for 192.. will that barrell low mid Atlantic phase with our trough and West based NAO I can't see it going under looking like that.  Maybe bbc are right.    

[Guest]

That PV split just got bigger!

[bluearmy]

[Chesil View]

So that 5 out of 6 models bringing cold/snow. But hey some of us just to want concentrate on the one that doesn't because that must be right eh.

 

[Kentspur]

Personally as a Southeasterner I like the Chinese model I'm rooting for the CMA! If its anything as good as the BCC seasonal model has been and the other Asian model JMA which went against the Euro models, and forecast an Easterly dominated late winter period back in the autumn, then we could be onto something

 

[DavidS]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where's the money for 192.. will that barrell low mid Atlantic phase with our trough and West based NAO I can't see it going under looking like that.  Maybe bbc are right.    

Under

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where's the money for 192.. will that barrell low mid Atlantic phase with our trough and West based NAO I can't see it going under looking like that.  Maybe bbc are right.    

Here’s France so you can see where it went.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So that 5 out of 6 models bringing cold/snow. But hey some of us just to want concentrate on the one that doesn't because that must be right eh.

 

TBF that is normally what happens in the UK!    The good thing is the odd one out is the GFS and not the ECM or what would be most worrying the UKMO!

Fingers crossed the GFS 0z suite is all a distant memory come 11am! 

[supernova]

Slideeeeerrrrrrr! Come on ECM.

Don’t think anyone in the SE will be upset this morning just as long as they ignore the GFS in its entirety. Big ask but, well just look....

Edited February 2, 2021 by supernova

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC D8 is pure filth. Can’t look anymore as it would sting if GFS turns out correct. But, my oh my.

[NewEra21]

ECM still looks great this morning so let's hope it's right. Because this from the GFS looks pants to say the least.

The one thing that does concern me is that more often than not this winter ECM has always been playing second fiddle to the GFS.

 Let's just hope the GFS is having one of those customary wobbles before a cold spell and flips back soon!

Edited February 2, 2021 by NewEra21

[bluearmy]

that system getting into Europe in conjunction with the strongly neg AO could advert the deeper cold west as this run gets to ‘less than 60% likely area’

what interests me longer term is how the vortex exiting Newfoundland day 8 progresses if we do have the kind of arctic block shown on ec at that time - you’d expect it to disrupt and shear becoming extended across to nw Europe but as the nao becomes more west based, it may well manage to gain enough latitude in the e Atlantic sector to take s Britain out of the deep cold. So much to look at (as has been the case for many weeks  ) 

[Continental Climate]

3 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Under

That actually looks like Feb 47 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EC D8 is pure filth. Can’t look anymore as it would sting if GFS turns out correct. But, my oh my.

Go on, have a little look.

[Daniel*]

Holy cow ECM 00z has outdone 12z... gripping model output at the moment. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Go on, have a little look.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Go on, have a little look.

-14 air into Kent for my Garden of England brethren.  Nice!