Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z // looking to slide the whole NH cold down and right at us.  T174:

Go the green member, but to get it erected as well as this is unlikely, it couldn’t really be any better aligned at this point, such small margins...

Edited January 30, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Stu_London]

The parallel has been quite consistent with the evolution. The Para is a bit like signing a striker of OPTA stats - you wont know if hes any good till on the pitch. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Some folks are never happy this possibly coldest  spell of winter coming up if we don’t get -20 uppers so be it you don’t need them sort of uppers  for uk freeze.

It's not about getting -20 uppers in (though obviously that would be nice), it's about getting a synoptic set up where we can feed plentiful moisture into a non-marginal set up to promote widespread UK snowfall. 

We can do this a few ways-

Cold (sub -10) uppers with low thicknesses across a (relatively) warm N sea, which would promote banding showing activity 

Cyclonic cold E'ly with organised snow pushing NW out of the continent- See Feb 2009

Undercutter scenario with cold, dry E/SE airmass undercutting a negative/neutrally tilted LP approaching from the W/SW

The trend has been clear away from any of those scenarios- a briefer initial E'ly with increasing heights/thicknesses very soon after. Snow fall possible but erring away from anything widespread or sustained. 

It depends what people want. I'd personally want to go all in at this time of year, rather than trying to make a decent meal from crumbs. 

[Allseasons-Si]

I am lovin the gfs/p...

strong E/NE winds with snow showers packing in from the east/northeast,...these should blow well inland on those isobars

[Man With Beard]

GFSP D7, pretty close to perfect for snow lovers.  Tight low to the east, brisk cold long draw easterly. Low deepening too. Bank! 

 

[SLAMMER]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's not about getting -20 uppers in (though obviously that would be nice), it's about getting a synoptic set up where we can feed plentiful moisture into a non-marginal set up to promote widespread UK snowfall. 

We can do this a few ways-

Cold (sub -10) uppers with low thicknesses across a (relatively) warm N sea, which would promote banding showing activity 

Cyclonic cold E'ly with organised snow pushing NW out of the continent- See Feb 2009

Undercutter scenario with cold, dry E/SE airmass undercutting a negative/neutrally tilted LP approaching from the W/SW

The trend has been clear away from any of those scenarios- a briefer initial E'ly with increasing heights/thicknesses very soon after. Snow fall possible but erring away from anything widespread or sustained. 

It depends what people want. I'd personally want to go all in at this time of year, rather than trying to make a decent meal from crumbs. 

you can't do any of these.  You have zero control over them.

[Uncertainty]

The GEFS have improved significantly at day 8-9 after a relatively lacklustre 12z

18z

12z

 

The 18z shows a very cold Easterly with the Atlantic trough hitting the buffers...

The 12z shows a mean N North Sea high cold but not very snowy.

This continues at day 10 with a mean easterly on the 12z and a strong one at that compared to a SWerly flow on the 12z. Upgrade anyone?

Crucially, the EPS has also improved from a cold perspective from its overnight run

12z

Para looks very good too

GEM —> after a day or two of U.K. highs has spat out two stonkers in a row
UKMO —> Colder earlier and looks ok with the Arctic high link up 

A U.K. high and an incursion from NW remain possible solutions, but the v cold easterly is very much in the running tonight. But the NOAA chart doesn’t give much credence to the former.

What a chart that is btw.

Last night after the ECM mean I made it clear we were on the rocks with this cold spell but the 0z pulled things back and the 12z have continued the good progress. With one  note worthy exception: will the real ECM please stand up?

 

 

 

[Stu_London]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

I am lovin the gfs/p...

strong E/NE winds with snow showers packing in from the east/northeast,...these should blow well inland on those isobars

High a bit too far north for my IMBY liking, but very good - I think it has been quite consistent also 

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z // looking to slide the whole NH cold down and right at us.  T174:

Go the green member, but to get it directed as well as this is very unlikely, such small margins...

That ridge is a thing of beauty. Add in an area of low pressure stuck just off the coast of East Anglia that will generate a lot of showers for NE England/ Eastern Scotland as well as organised areas of snow.

Gale force winds along North Sea coasts. Bitter....

 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

GFSP D7, pretty close to perfect for snow lovers.  Tight low to the east, brisk cold long draw easterly. Low deepening too. Bank! 

 

Yes, loving the little low in the North Sea fueling those bands of snow showers 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Tim Bland

[ICE COLD]

T186 on the para delivers the goods

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T186 on the para delivers the goods

Now THIS is a lot closer to what we want to see if we're after more widespread snow chances...

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run // has the balls to go with it at T192!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

The GEFS have improved significantly at day 8-9 after a relatively lacklustre 12z

18z

12z

 

The 18z shows a very cold Easterly with the Atlantic trough hitting the buffers...

The 12z shows a mean N North Sea high cold but not very snowy.

This continues at day 10 with a mean easterly on the 12z and a strong one at that compared to a SWerly flow on the 12z. Upgrade anyone?

Crucially, the EPS has also improved from a cold perspective from its overnight run

12z

Para looks very good too

GEM —> after a day or two of U.K. highs has spat out two stonkers in a row
UKMO —> Colder earlier and looks ok with the Arctic high link up 

A U.K. high and an incursion from NW remain possible solutions, but the v cold easterly is very much in the running tonight. But the NOAA chart doesn’t give much credence to the former.

What a chart that is btw.

Last night after the ECM mean I made it clear we were on the rocks with this cold spell but the 0z pulled things back and the 12z have continued the good progress. With one  note worthy exception: will the real ECM please stand up?

 

 

 

Really good post again mate . Really like your posts .

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Now THIS is a lot closer to what we want to see if we're after more widespread snow chances...

And is very similar to the 12z Crew...

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And is very similar to the 12z Crew...

We're in a very good position if that scenario could just somehow come to pass. Notice how the cold source is not cut off- Arctic blocking anchored nicely.

Edited January 30, 2021 by CreweCold

[Jason H]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

And is very similar to the 12z Crew...

9 days away. 5 days into FI. Not likely to verify. But certainly within the scope of current modelling. From a synoptic point of view, that finger of high pressure up and over the Pole is beautiful.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

High a bit too far north for my IMBY liking, but very good - I think it has been quite consistent also 

the high is in a perfect position Stu.

[ICE COLD]

If I could take a run now out of all of them it would be tonight’s para .

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

the high is in a perfect position Stu.

 

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

the high is in a perfect position Stu.

Im not convinced Tunbridge Wells does all that well out of it. PPN a bit far north - and some dodgy uppers introducing marginality - if it can marginal anywhere, its Tunbridge Wells. though i would take the para over the op every time

Edited January 30, 2021 by Stu_London

[Duane S.]

Model watching at its best. What is hilarious on here is how people can be “absolutely gutted” about something that has yet to occur . 

Anyway, another improvement on yesterday. Much to be resolved (and that won’t occur tomorrow I doubt). No denying ECM OP is poor, but only poor in comparison to the others, but no doubt it has definitely edged towards them a bit on the 12Zs (in a very GFS like way!). Northern blocking, in a yet to be determined form, is now virtually nailed on. Much concern about the dawdling low, IMO I think it will clear and give us a decent easterly for starters.

Certain people seem to want, or even expect, a cold and snowy nirvana straight off the bat. It rarely ever happens like that, just get the cold in, we don’t have zonal waiting in the wings, we are in a very good place to allow for even more potent bites of the cherry later on 

We have a super disturbed northern hemispheric pattern, largely courtesy of the ongoing Strat volatility, good forcing from the Pacific about to be introduced, and it’s only just about to be February, THE best month for snow chances. Some will soon be bleating on about warmer days etc etc but as far as I am concerned, this is as good as it gets right now. I’d happily take this going into March, let alone February!

So looking good for next weekend and hereafter who knows? There seems to be a myriad of possibilities, the good news though is that a good deal of them involve and  

[Allseasons-Si]

My only slight concern with the gfs/p is the low in the Atlantic heading strait south,we could do with it heading SE to interact with the cold troughing to the NE otherwise we end up we a southerly fetch,...but this is all academic at this range.

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run // going all in on Greenland high at T228:

[Stu_London]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And is very similar to the 12z Crew...

Do we think the phasing of that low from the atlantic deliver an all snow event, or will it introduce marginality (should it happen)

[ICE COLD]

Still loving the para run .