Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Cloud 10]

Spot the HP.

 

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

You have to laugh - Para delivers one of the most best ever runs in modelling history for those north of the M4

I would still say there is plenty of interest for us in the SE on that run, though yes the main focus is indeed further north on that run deeper in (though lets be honest, that run ain't happening anyway!)

That LP at 192hrs is rather textbook looking and I'd guess would give plenty of snow chances for our neck of the woods. It maybe is a touch marignal for your neck of the woods but you'd probably see enough heavy precipitation that you'd see evap cooling play a big part.

Plus we do join in eventually again down the line. Snow line in that set-up is nearly the 0c isotherm at 850hpa given the flow ahead and the deep cold pushing down, with the real cold surface air nearby tucking in and undercutting easily.

Its still much better than ECM where we have pretty much no chance at least through to 240hrs, and lets be honest, if we were offered this run last winter, we'd have gone a little crazy even here in the far south and SE!

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Man With Beard]

GFSP 18Z, 30 Jan 2021. Best modelled easterly ever. (Well, north of the M4). Approaching 10 days of easterly winds and likely to continue

 

 

[Stu_London]

Just now, Jason H said:

. It's only just beginning in my book.

i would agree could go long into March also

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I would still say there is plenty of interest for us in the SE on that run, though yes the main focus is indeed further north on that run deeper in (though lets be honest, that run ain't happening anyway!)

That LP at 192hrs is rather textbook looking and I'd guess would give plenty of snow chances for our neck of the woods. It maybe is a touch marignal for your neck of the woods but you'd probably see enough heavy precipitation that you'd see evap cooling play a big part.

Plus we do join in eventually again down the line.

Its still much better than ECM where we have pretty much no chance at least through to 240hrs.

was all a bit tongue in cheek - would take the para over all the latest operational runs available

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

GFSP 18Z, 30 Jan 2021. Best modelled easterly ever. (Well, north of the M4). Approaching 10 days of easterly winds and likely to continue

 

 

Hmm, well at least it wouldn't take too much of an adjustment to bring us in the far south into the fun and games! 

[Mike Poole]

Had to crack open another beer for the // pub run!  

T372:

The gift that goes on giving.  Phase 1, get the cold pool in via optimum alignment of Atlantic ridge and Arctic high. Tick.  Phase 2, establish a blocking high in a more or less perfect position to get maximum draw from that cold pool.  Tick. Phase 3, just keep it coming.  Tick.  And while keeping the high pressure far enough away that snow can happen.  What a run!  

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Hmm, well at least it wouldn't take too much of an adjustment to bring us in the far south into the fun and games! 

It wasn't that bad for the south either, was it!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

It wasn't that bad for the south either, was it!

No I suppose not....

Edited January 31, 2021 by Don

[SLEETY]

Severe frosts over the whole of the  UK at the end of the gfs p run with high pressure sitting over us

Minimum temps below minus 20 c in the Scottish Highlands and all time lowest temp record of minus 27.2c in danger of being beaten.

What a run!

[Stu_London]

That easterly on the para doesnt look like it going anywhere until about April 

Does the para have known form at all?

[Don]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Severe frosts over the whole of the  UK at the end of the gfs p run with high pressure sitting over us

Minimum temps below minus 20 c in the Scottish Highlands and all time lowest temp record of minus 27.2c in danger of being beaten.

What a run!

Yes, I think I have seen worse runs in the winter during my time on Netweather!

[Stu_London]

13 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Spot the HP.

 

That looks like a day after tomorrow type set up

[Allseasons-Si]

the gfs//p in motion,...it gets to the south in the end,chin up you guys in the south as i am sure you will join in on the fun,...hopefully

the trends are there to get the cold in first and with fronts engaging from the S/SW at times there is potential for big snow amounts as it engages the cold already in situ over the UK,the meto listed this in there text today so don't worry about a breakdown just yet.

[Roger J Smith]

No clear idea which guidance is best, but everything has at least some wintry outcomes, and some of the guidance (most notably the GEM) is borderline historic deep cold 1895 style. I notice that in North America there's some rather extreme cold showing up at times, as happened also in 1895 (as well as 1855 and 1917, two other cold Febs in Europe). 

Quite exciting to see at least a chance of a big-time cold spell and the inevitable heavy snowfalls that would come with that. 

[Stu_London]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

the gfs//p in motion,...it gets to the south in the end,chin up you guys in the south as i am sure you will join in on the fun,...hopefully

the trends are there to get the cold in first and with fronts engaging from the S/SW at times there is potential for big snow amounts as it engages the cold already in situ over the UK,the meto listed this in there text today so don't worry about a breakdown just yet.

no breakdown to worry about on the para and wouldn't be for some time post +384

but is it any good at making weather predictions

[Don]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

no breakdown to worry about on the para and wouldn't be for some time post +384

but is it any good at making weather predictions

Oh yes, the very best!  Well, on tonights 18z anyway! 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

no breakdown to worry about on the para and wouldn't be for some time post +384

but is it any good at making weather predictions

I don't like the looks of that short wave approaching on 24th March. 

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh yes, the very best! 

best outcome i agree - but best performance?

I know if doesn't fare that well in the verification stats, however there is more to models than verification. Has it got any big wins on its card where its nailed something ahead of all the other models in the mid range.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London
drunken spelling and grammatical errors

[Don]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

best outcome i agree - but best performance?

I know if doesn't fare that will in the verification stats, however there is more to models than verification. Has it got any big wins on its card where its nailed something ahead of all the other models in the mid range.

On a serious note I don't know.

[Stu_London]

i think it did quite well with storm bella - but there was excellent model consensus around that storm to day 10 if I recall

Griff will know - he's the para man

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

best outcome i agree - but best performance?

I know if doesn't fare that will in the verification stats, however there is more to models than verification. Has it got any big wins on its card where its nailed something ahead of all the other model in the mid range.

The parallel GFS has much higher vertical resolution than the op GFS.  This may not matter much most of the year, but it does matter now, why? Because the SSW on 5/1/21 is a major player in this and will be for at least a month yet, so the higher resolution in the strat is definitely an asset to the new version. 

[danthetan]

21 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

It wasn't that bad for the south either, was it!

likes his tantrums this one.

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

The parallel GFS has much higher vertical resolution than the op GFS.  This may not matter much most of the year, but it does matter now, why? Because the SSW on 5/1/21 is a major player in this and will be for at least a month yet, so the higher resolution in the strat is definitely an asset to the new version. 

Thanks Mike for a very concise explanation.

So that is positive - but does it still have the same weakness as the existing GFS - there is a very specific route to what would be a monumental cold spell (probably not that welcome to the country as a whole right now). It just looked way too clean for me - not many disruptive features like shortwaves - our weather tends to messier than that

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, danthetan said:

likes his tantrums this one.

If referring to me you have misinterpreted the spirit of my musings. I don't suffer an angst over weather, unless it affects my ability to carry my daily business, then it becomes annoying. Im a severe weather enthusiast who has long since excepted that the weather will do what it will do. Any edginess in the posts is humour or irony