Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[lewis clark]

Bit of a lurker here but I have noticed with xc weather that I believe uses the gfs model?for the last few days the mornings runs have been showing snow cold easterlys for sunday coming then that's quickly changes to no snow moderate or no easterly abit later in the day..is that because its using different runs? Which is likely right or wrong does anyone know? Here's the 2 screenshots from this morning and now. It's been doing this for 3 days .Any info much appreciated. Thanks lewis

Edited February 1, 2021 by lewis clark

[MJB]

The Control follows the OP ...................needs watching for sure 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, lewis clark said:

Bit of a lurker here but I have noticed with xc weather that I believe uses the gfs model?for the last few days the mornings runs have been showing snow cold easterlys for sunday coming then that's quickly changes to no snow moderate or no easterly abit later in the day..is that because its using different runs? Which is right or wrong does anyone know? Here's the 2 screenshots from this morning and now. It's been doing this for 3 days .Any info much appreciated. Thanks lewis

Those are a waste of time , will change regularly through the day , same as most automated weather apps 

[Methuselah]

    

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

The Control follows the OP ...................needs watching for sure 

Yes and you can see a westerly element for some north western areas, bring snow showers in from the Irish sea.

[lewis clark]

I see your point,it's been pretty accurate for me in the past for wind but just seems all over the place at the moment. Just wondered why this was does this reflect the models at the moment being all over the place? Does xc use the gfs? Cheers lewis 

[ptow]

10 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Interesting.. Good news if he is saying things like that then?

Pinch of salt needed. He loves a siberian blast

[MJB]

The mean at 180 isn't bad 

[lambgregg1977]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

John kettley is one of the country's most renowned..@old school mets...

'And so is Micheal Fish! Great song lol

[Liam J]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

The Control follows the OP ...................needs watching for sure 

30mb pressure difference near the UK on the 6z control compared to the 00z for the same time frame. wild change! 

 

[North East Blizzard]

GFSP is great for all, chalk and cheese to the original GFS

Edited February 1, 2021 by North East Blizzard

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Looking at met office and bbc vs metcheck it's like two different planets. Met office and bbc showing dry in the south and metcheck showing 1.1cm snow.

[weirpig]

ens  perfectly acceptable

[Bald Eagle]

9 minutes ago, lewis clark said:

I see your point,it's been pretty accurate for me in the past for wind but just seems all over the place at the moment. Just wondered why this was does this reflect the models at the moment being all over the place? Does xc use the gfs? Cheers lewis 

Yes it does use gfs...and yes xc is good for wind and yes it does flip flop but heh..just look at the mess in here  from flip flopping models

Edited February 1, 2021 by Bald Eagle
Bad spelling

[ptow]

Just now, weirpig said:

ens  perfectly acceptable

What location is that for?

[Updated_Weather]

8 minutes ago, ptow said:

Pinch of salt needed. He loves a siberian blast

Don't we all! xD

[DavidS]

GFS 6z Op was top of the pack. Graph is for London

[WeatherWatchmanG]

1 minute ago, lewis clark said:

 

did you mean to add a reply to that?

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, ptow said:

What location is that for?

sorry w mids

[lewis clark]

Just now, Bald Eagle said:

Yes it does use gfs...and yes xc is good for wind and yes it does flip flop but heh..just look at the mess in here today from flip flopping models

Thankyou

Edited February 1, 2021 by lewis clark
Didnt reply

[ptow]

Just now, weirpig said:

sorry w mids

aah I see. For balance I dont think they are anywhere near as good further South.

[sheikhy]

Its clearly an outlier!!most ensembles are colder!!need it to change asap on the 12z!!

[seabreeze86]

All standard stuff this when it comes to easterlies. GFS is usually the first to pick up the pattern the ECM and takes longer. Then when we get the the 144hrs mark the GFS has a wobble and the ECM takes over happens all the time 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, ptow said:

aah I see. For balance I dont think they are anywhere near as good further South.

bournmouth area