Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Updated_Weather]

I would expect to see the 6z being at the top or even above the rest in its ensembles.. We will see.

[IDO]

Only one run but no point beating about the bush, for the south literally zero cold on this run to d9+:

06z>0z>

Roll on the 12z!

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

High pressure?

Cuts off the cold flow and allows milder air in from the south, 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

I would expect to see the 6z being at the top or even above the rest in its ensembles.. We will see.

Certain outlier......I'm sure..@(hope)

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Certain outlier......I'm sure..@(hope)

Can't always be plain sailing for us to get cold ay!

I'm 80% sure it will be.

[DJ Fart]

Notice that the usual suspect rags like the Faily Express have been shouting about 20cm of snow for the whole country...that's probably that then!

[Garthvader]

33 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

The classification of a SSW as a major warming is widely accepted to be the reversal of the mean zonal wind at 10hPa 60N. This morning's GFS forecast suggests this is imminent, although brief, before wind speeds increase again. The 0z GEFS ensemble mean suggests it may have happened yesterday, 31st January. However, if a 2nd reversal happens within 20 days of a previous reversal, it is considered to be one and the same event, so as the first reversal was on 5th January this should be classified as a separate event - just. We'll see what the strat professionals think.

GFS  GEFS

Sources:
GFS http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php
GEFS http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html

Edit: Sorry - 5th Jan plus 20 days is 25th January - so separate event by this definition. Got my date calculations wrong. Doh.

Thanks much appreciated just trying to understand more than just the basics.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Dj fart said:

Notice that the usual suspect rags like the Faily Express have been shouting about 20cm of snow for the whole country...that's probably that then!

Well if the 00z came off.. They actually would be right for some areas! xD

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Also random question but hasn't the 6z been delaying the cold anyways in recent output?

Yes mate, it has... and, it's been so far 'out on a limb' that I'm tempted to do something I seldom ever do, with any model run: throw it in the bin!

Edited February 1, 2021 by General Cluster

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, General Cluster said:

Yes mate, it has... and, it's been so far 'out on a limb' that I'm tempted to doing something I seldom ever do, with any model run: throw it in the bin!

I thought as such!

As long as we have UKMO and ECM imo on board, despite further tweaks needed for ECM for quicker evolution. GFS can have its wobble after being some what consistent xD 

[ITSY]

11 minutes ago, ITSY said:

06z GFS is a variation on a theme but a variant those of us in the SE Quadrant do not want to verify. The Easterly persists but, just as in December, draws in milder uppers for the first several frames which prevents the big Feb 09-esque snow event. It's a sort of ECM-GFS blend, with the Easterly tracking further North across the British isles leaving Scotland and NE England absolutely buried (what a winter it's been for them). There are signs though of an Atlantic undercut, a Greenland block and frigid temps over Scandi, so you only need minor changes for it to turn insane over later frames. That being said, this definitely counts as a wobble (in my opinion) from a selfish/IMBY SE perspective! 

Let's hope this is a blip. Because the control looks set to follow suit: 

00z: Clean Easterly entry...

06Z: flabbier entry, Northern areas only, milder for the south

Eyes on Ensembles and then the 12z's. Reassess this evening...
 

[MJB]

Just now, That ECM said:

I'd check the Control 6z if I were you 

[Griff]

For perspective the gem which looked on face value to wobble yesterday has a colder mean this morning. 

Anyone expecting an easy walk to cold nirvana should allow for the possibility that op runs are going to do their thing and show a range of outcomes. For example last night's exceptional cold run no more or less likely than a poorer 06z. What's the overall picture so far? 

This is a fascinating period that should be enjoyed for what it is, potentially cold weather perhaps, but without doubt engrossing synoptics that at the end of the day may not resemble the actual outcome. 

[cheshire snow]

5 hours ago, Daniel said:

Anouther upgrade on the mean gets the uppers down to -9 now in London 

Maybe the 06GFS is Running with the stray and lonely +5 Ens

C.S

[Battleground Snow]

Very early indications that it is going to be an outlier, but the ensembles do make more of the Scandi trough extention.

 

 

[MJB]

Control 126h - slowly getting there 

[Tim Bland]

Can already see it’s a mild outlier in the south...phew

[frosty ground]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Can already see it’s a mild outlier in the south...phew

Thats one way of looking at it


clear shift  in ensembles 

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Maybe the 06GFS is Running with the stray and lonely +5 Ens

C.S

Yes utterly ridiculous when you see that ensemble chart from the 0z to what we have now with the 06z...let's hope it's a complete outlier, but yes typical of GFS to get us back on our nerves after some real decent 0z runs.

[lambgregg1977]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Such a relief to be able to post...Fantastic ECM.. Snow from the east and then from the west. No one misses out in this run!!

That's potential avalanche Snow depths in the Highlands. Good grief! 

Edited February 1, 2021 by lambgregg1977

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You guys honestly are enough to drive me stir crazy haven't you got any control over your emotions to comment on every single frame freaking out? 

Surely we knew the 06z wouldn't be the same as the 0z, and there's gonna more twist and turns until T72 probably t48 it happens with snow right down to t0, 

And if it can go wrong it will, so expect nothing lol 

[Gowon]

The Gfsp looks like it's slightly better guys but I'm going get my toys ready and warm up my shoulder joint incase the afternoon runs flop like the GFS 6z

[Weathizard]

I don’t like the mean, it’s much more indicative of the phasing across the top we don’t want (0z and 6z comparison)

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Thats one way of looking at it


clear shift  in ensembles 

Yes, not as cold a set there and a shift in some to a less cold variation on the theme.

I would say the 6z is at the top of the pack, not an outlier as it has some support near it.

Hopefully just an overeaction to something that will adjust favourably again on the 12z run later.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Weathizard said:

I don’t like the mean, it’s much more indicative of the phasing across the top we don’t want (0z and 6z comparison)

The shift is clear, and its no outlier