Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[daz_4]

As a central european I give up. GEFS now flipped to mild completely in the next 7 days. 

0z vs 6z

  

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

GFSP is great for all, chalk and cheese to the original GFS

What is GFS (P) verification like within 7 days?...still seems very knife edge stuff.

 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, DavidS said:

GFS 6z Op was top of the pack. Graph is for London

Good as hoped for. 

PS can I request light green member for this afternoon GFS dealer..

Tia

[NewEra21]

This is for Suffolk. Not quite as good as you'd like to see, but still plenty of colder runs in there.

Second thoughts it's not bad at all, I'm just becoming too greedy and looking for that -10 line

Edited February 1, 2021 by NewEra21

[North East Blizzard]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

What is GFS (P) verification like within 7 days?...still seems very knife edge stuff.

 

Tbh I'm not sure, i Don't have a link to the verification stats. You would like to think its better than the Gfs, seeing as it's meant to be replacing it, i believe. 

 

At 186hrs, the whole country is still bitter

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, North East Blizzard said:

Tbh I'm not sure, i Don't have a link to the verification stats. You would like to think its better than the Gfs, seeing as it's meant to be replacing it, i believe. 

 

At 186hrs, the whole country is still bitter

Believe its been quite wobbly also.. Had its good and bad days, like every model does.. But think GFS still has better verifying stats than its new replacement.

[pages]

Para is best run yet

[North East Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Believe its been quite wobbly also.. Had its good and bad days, like every model does.. But think GFS still has better verifying stats than its new replacement.

Good test for it here then, its a belter of a run. 

[NewEra21]

Wasn't the GFS P the first model to pick up this potential easterly, it's been showing this pattern for well over a week or so now. And bar the odd wobble, it's consistency has been very good!

Edited February 1, 2021 by NewEra21

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Believe its been quite wobbly also.. Had its good and bad days, like every model does.. But think GFS still has better verifying stats than its new replacement.

I've never taken notice of Parallel.  Simply because it's in test and we don't to my knowledge have visibility of what testing conditions it's running ubder. For example it could be a tweaked ensemble member?

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, North East Blizzard said:

Good test for it here then, its a belter of a run. 

Exactly.. We shall see what 12z say later!

[Acupuncturist]

33 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Whose that? Someone who knows what they're talking about or?

John Kettley is a weather man, a weather man, a weather man. John kettley is a weather man and so is Michael Fish   ( A tribe of Tofffs circa 1988)  (sorry Mods - couldnt resist)

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes I can almost feel the thinking of some on here..moaning about ECM not being on board for days,now its firmly on board its gonna be a case of watching the GFS 6z lose interest!! You can't really win,and if you dissect every operational run 20 times a day your going to see run to run differentials! Its not even possible for every single run to keep going for an upgrade. What I would say is this...we are looking at our coldest period of the Winter so far come the Weekend. Yes there may be little wobbles along the way but its as good as certain now that its going to be feeling bitter.

For days all the fuss was about the ECM op not having any of it,now its gone to the other end of the spectrum by suggesting -10 850s.. Enjoy the ride folks,and bare in mind another wind reversal looks imminent in the next day or 2,this for me probably extending the cold outlook perhaps into early March..And also worth considering this evolution will bring yet further model headaches! I feel La Nina is really gonna struggle to influence the later Winter period...enjoy the ride and try not to get to stressed over each and every run.

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[summer blizzard]

27 minutes ago, lewis clark said:

I see your point,it's been pretty accurate for me in the past for wind but just seems all over the place at the moment. Just wondered why this was does this reflect the models at the moment being all over the place? Does xc use the gfs? Cheers lewis 

Xc updates to the most recent GFS run. It reflects the poor 6z GFS even here.

21 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Looking at met office and bbc vs metcheck it's like two different planets. Met office and bbc showing dry in the south and metcheck showing 1.1cm snow.

Met office/BBC use their own models/Euro. Met check uses low Res GFS.

[Updated_Weather]

i'll take that xD

[Robbie Coldrain]

6z  doesn't look good. Even ignoring that. The mild air is still far to close for comfort in the SE. A small shift and we will tap into it. We usually find a path to warmer air down here.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Robbie Coldrain

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What is GFS (P) verification like within 7 days?...still seems very knife edge stuff.

 

Actually improved since I last checked. But it's still a case of the ECM then everything else:

Day 6

Day 8

I'm not sure any of this really matters in the current situation though because, as you say, it's on a knife edge. Slight variations in the extent of the med ridge have big implications for the cold advection into the UK. 

[Battleground Snow]

This is still a seriously good cluster for London.

There are going to be ebbs and flows over the next 24 hours which always happens in these situations. 

I fully expect the met update today to add very cold back into the text.

The macro picture looks set over the next 7 days, micro details are going to change.

I missed this earlier in the excitement, but that is some deep cold over the states and Canada next week.

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

i'll take that xD

So para goes from Grinch to happy days and production GFS goes the other way. 

With para how we be sure it's a full operational run we are seeing and not a tweaked ensemble member as part of testing conditions?

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

As a central european I give up. GEFS now flipped to mild completely in the next 7 days. 

0z vs 6z

  

It never looked on in my view for our locations. The extended forecasts have gone from bad to worse. The main culprit being EC extended last week which showed good portion of Europe going well below average week 08-15/02, an overreaction to SSW, now the forecast has adjusted to above average that week. This is not going to be February 2006,1929 or 2018,more like recent ones I am afraid. Even favorable pattern for western Europe cold is like 2-3 days window, enough to excite folks in UK,but us in central Europe who will once again endure disappointing winter,perhaps slightly less then last one as we had like 3 spells of 5 day colder regimes. For me when I see SE Europe high pressure that is enough not to get carried away by few GFS runs,that show cold diving to central Europe, I think it was never on cards, this EPS us as ugly as it gets

[londonblizzard]

No question that the 6z GEFS set is a downgrade compared to the dizzying heights of the 0z and 18z - both in terms of the mean and the number of members going very cold (-13 to -15 850s). Plenty of good cold options in there still though so no reason for despair 

[James Maidstone]

58 minutes ago, lambgregg1977 said:

That's potential avalanche Snow depths in the Highlands. Good grief! 

Avalanches are pretty common in the Highlands, as are huge volumes of snow, however wind re deposition of snow is far more responsible for vast build ups of snow in certain areas which are more likely to cause avalanches than just a uniform snow fall

[EML Network]

This is always how a potential cold spell in a computer model doesnt come to fruition.

Tell tale signs of a watered down version of what could have been often shows up in the ensembles, first as a few 'errant' runs, then you see more and more runs showing a less cold solution and before you know it you are back looking at 240+ for the next opportunity.

 

Until the 12z runs come out later Id say were at that initial stage where certainly more than a few 'errant' runs are showing us how anyone south of scotland could once again miss out.

The 12z will I think go one of two ways and will probably tell us which way this is likely to unfold as regards to the weekend.

 

It will either step away from what it was showing (as it has done this morning) or it will step back.

 

Tbh in this sitation a middle ground between the lovely cold and snowy charts it has been churning out for the last few days and what its showing now wont cut the mustard.

[PolarWarsaw]

I'd just like to make a very obvious point, but one that's useful.

When reading this thread, especially this week - it's important to check the location of the user and what they are posting. 

The 6z GFS is a perfectly good run for 90% of the country, it just gets more marginal further south and takes longer for the coldest air to get down to the very far S/SE - you will note the negativity mostly stems from those users in this thread. Much like, on the 0z I'd rather take my chances on an Atlantic incursion, because, for most of the W and NW - it's bone dry and very boring next week, whilst the SE gets in on some streamer action. It's all so fickle and the IMBY nature of things effects what kind of opinion people have.

As for the entire set up, it's knife edge, perilous, could go wrong with even one false step and the margins are even finer than virtually ANY other cold set up. It's still 60-40 AGAINST something like that 18z coming off. Still only 55-45 in favour of cold uppers next weekend. How is this nailed? 

Unlike some cold spells, There's a good 3/4 days to go before this is nailed down, the modelling of the low will be in 'current time' - when a feature such as that is so decisive in giving or taking a cold spell away - FI is down to 72 hours MAX. This could all go wrong or right on Wednesday evening. 

Can people please, not, under any circumstance declare a freeze 'nailed' at Day 7, incorrectly for the 280th time this winter. It just leads to more toys out of the pram and an unreadable thread a few hours later when a computer generated forecast that's never actually come to fruition takes away some snowflakes at the window. 

It's painful and brings 'that side' of the population out, you know the role your eyes at gang. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[frosty ground]

That's a sustained run of ice days