South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Warnings from the met are just covering the potential for snow showers as early as Saturday... Wouldn't worry to much. 

For the newbies and people that are worried.. In these kinds of setups things change and crop up at short notice. 12hrs or less in some cases. The met are just covering the first potential lot of showers.. 

There will be all kinds of surprises in the flow and trying to pin down streamers etc at 6hrs out is hard let alone 6 days.. This is a very classic setup with lots of opportunities for snow.

Some people will try their best to get under your skin and say no snow IMBY hit the ignore button.. With people sitting at home doing nothing the tendency to try whined people up is high 

In the coming week I would pay attention to the great posters we have on here and if you dare in the model thread. Keep the photos coming and locations.. 

 

We have a great team in this regional thread and never really have any issues.. Keep the faith guys.. We might be onto a winner 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Surrey

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, spear said:

The Met have put me in warning area (only just) from Saturday to Monday. Hopefully just the start and the cold and snow spreads to more of the region. Fingers crossed we all get snowed in. 

History shows that these warning areas can change...small changes in set-ups regarding low pressure to the south east can move this further north or even be expanded. As we head down towards T0 then obviously the more this will be cemented but currently looking good as shown from Suffolk northwards as a guestimate to the south watch this space!

[Ian Docwra]

I just about remember the 62/63 winter in as far as I was pushed along our road in New Malden, Surrey in a pushchair and the snow was piling up ahead of me in a plough effect.  A very vague but persistent memory.  Christmas Day 1970 was a white one - my father drove to Whitton to pick up my aunt for the day and I went too.  Then there was the stunning 78/79 when a true blizzard hit New Malden on the night of 30/31 December 78.  I was up much of the nght watching the snow blow past the street light outside my window and steadily drifting against the cars.  In the morning there was about a foot, with proper drifts.  We still went to Rayners Lane to see family though!!  My father's Rover P4 battled through like a tank.   The '81/82 winter was superb (-7C on Christmas Day with deep lying snow and blue skies), and we had moved to Ashtead by then.  The 80s had many good snowfalls, and I was in Epsom when the January 1987 event occured - well over a foot of snow in the town and serious drifts on the Downs.  February 1991 was memorable as I had been skiing in the Alps and returning to Gatwick was hard to tell from leaving Geneva!  The flight nearly didn't go at all.  I got home to my flat to find a slow drip in the bath for the week had frozen in the outside downpipe completely and it had to be thawed with careful use of a blow torch.  -15.5C that night in my parents' garden in Ashtead.  

Having got all that nostalgia out of my system, I have serious doubts about the supposed easterly blast this weekend.  I think it will affect eastern England from the Wash northwards most, with the SE, sadly, missing out.  The continental cold pool is just not widespread and cold enough to exert the required influence with so much very mild air so close by.  The Greenland high starts to weaken a little by Saturday allowing the UK low to survive without being pushed away SE.  The easterly flow also weakens and warms a little, especially with the North Sea being unusually warm this winter.  The SE sees sleet/rain showers, or even a SW, relatively mild plume if the low fizzles out and drifts away.  

Who do I need to pay to make my scenario wrong?!

[Stu_London]

Latest GFS has the whole region under cold air by early Sunday. Its quite keen for the atlantic to mow in quite quickly, by midweek, however we get a solid 3-4 day cold snap and there should be some snow for most, either blowing in from the east, or via the breakdown. 

Some of the other models aren't as keen on a breakdown occurring quite as quickly, so worth keeping an eye on as we may well get a more substantive cold spell if the GFS is overdoing the mobility (wouldn't be the first time).

[Hotspur62]

On to the here and now 7.5 here in locksbottom and been raining steadily since 8.15amWhat is it with Wednesdays?Every Wednesday bar 1 in 2021 it has pi^*ed down here inLocksbottom.Hopefully due to stop between 1-2 pm

Really trying to stay calm with this impending cold spell.Not said a word to the wife and daughter who have no interest in the weather anywayDid mention it to the dog(King Charles cavalier) and she didn’t seem interested either!!If it happens am thinking streamers Monday or TuesdayAlso for once interested in Met Office update which seems quite favourable for a cold spell as opposed to snap.If we get through next 72 intact then there is the potential that cold will be embedded and then slider potential comes into place that on a very Southerly Jet track COULD keep us on right side of cold for longer which ties in with Heights to north of UK from Met office.This is all a long way off though and note to myself is keep feet firmly on ground.We down in SE have been so close 2 or 3 times this winter and well aware things could go PETE TONG.

Just keepthis is our time

 

stay safe

 

[NewEra21]

Things have certainly took a turn for the better in the last few runs, at least we're now looking like getting the proper cold into the SE & EA by Sunday.

Get the cold in and then anything can happen, I wouldn't even worry about looking for a breakdown just yet. Once this pattern sets up, it could be much harder to shift and more prolonged than the models currently indicate. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by NewEra21

[kold weather]

ECM 00z still shows the risk should that LP drift a little too close or be a little too strong between Sun-Mon

Has a rain event for the SE, though the cold air does edge back in and it turns to snow for a great many eventually away from Kent and maybe parts of Sussex.

However if it shifts even slightly closer, that area would be extended into our whole region. 

We are on such a knife edge down here, where literally even a 30-50 mile shift in either direction will make the difference between a large snow event and sleety mess.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z still shows the risk should that LP drift a little too close or be a little too strong between Sun-Mon

Has a rain event for the SE, though the cold air does edge back in and it turns to snow for a great many eventually away from Kent and maybe parts of Sussex.

However if it shifts even slightly closer, that area would be extended into our whole region. 

We are on such a knife edge down here, where literally even a 30-50 mile shift in either direction will make the difference between a large snow event and sleety mess.

Yes.. but it was warmer outlier on the spreads for that time frame.  Hopefully indicator that there is wriggle room to correct further away from us?

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z still shows the risk should that LP drift a little too close or be a little too strong between Sun-Mon

Has a rain event for the SE, though the cold air does edge back in and it turns to snow for a great many eventually away from Kent and maybe parts of Sussex.

However if it shifts even slightly closer, that area would be extended into our whole region. 

We are on such a knife edge down here, where literally even a 30-50 mile shift in either direction will make the difference between a large snow event and sleety mess.

Yes I noticed there was a bit more mixing of milder uppers on the ECM run - the hope has to be that this slightly trending away from this and historically things tend to end up a bit further south, but still a concern at this stage. One would hope that this will be resolved one or the other by tomorrow evenings output.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 00z still shows the risk should that LP drift a little too close or be a little too strong between Sun-Mon

Has a rain event for the SE, though the cold air does edge back in and it turns to snow for a great many eventually away from Kent and maybe parts of Sussex.

However if it shifts even slightly closer, that area would be extended into our whole region. 

We are on such a knife edge down here, where literally even a 30-50 mile shift in either direction will make the difference between a large snow event and sleety mess.

Sorry I have seen a few of your posts this morning regarding this.

 

You are not taking into account important details. Regardless of how far away this event actually is. 

 

The air source from where we are getting the cold from is bitter dry and cold. While on paper it may look like a rain situation I can assure you with thickness looking like it is and the source of cold air it wont be rain unless you live within 5 miles of the coast and have a on shore gale... 

 

Not sure why im discussing the details of something that may not happen anyway 

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Sorry I have seen a few of your posts this morning regarding this.

 

You are not taking into account important details. Regardless of how far away this event actually is. 

 

The air source from where we are getting the cold from is bitter dry and cold. While on paper it may look like a rain situation I can assure you with thickness looking like it is and the source of cold air it wont be rain unless you live within 5 miles of the coast and have a on shore gale... 

 

Not sure why im discussing the details of something that may not happen anyway 

To be fair - I think the ECM is mixing air sourced from the Iberian Low, which wouldn't be necessarily cold and dry. 

However as you say - it's not certain to happen - hence why more runs are needed to resolve. 

2018 beast broke down for the south in this manner. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Stu_London

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Stu_London said:

To be fair - I think the ECM is mixing air sourced from the Iberian Low, which wouldn't be necessarily cold and dry. 

However as you say - it's not certain to happen - hence why more runs are needed to resolve. 

And trying to look at stuff beyond the weekend is stupid at the moment.. 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Surrey

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

And trying to look at stuff beyond the weekend is stupid at the moment.. 

 

 

It's not stupid, it just comes with a caveat of a higher level of uncertainty. 

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yes.. but it was warmer outlier on the spreads for that time frame.  Hopefully indicator that there is wriggle room to correct further away from us?

Yep it was very much out there.

However the operationals do need to be kept a close eye, as they will be more likely to resolve these type of lows better tha nthe ensembles due to the higher resolutions.

@Surrey - I'm just highlighting potenial risks, especially further south, the key though is the wind direction.  If the low is too close we will be getting air from the deeper into Europe tucked into the flow as the colder air will tuck in around the forming low, but that takes time. Thats exactly what the 00z ECM shows, and what numerous GFS runs and ensembles have been showing could happen. Lets not pretend it isn't a risk at the moment either! Our margin of error is literally 50-70 miles.

I agree though, it may well not happen anyway and we will all be in streamer wonderland!

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

It's not stupid, it just comes with a caveat of a higher level of uncertainty. 

That's like saying gambling small amounts of money is okay but bigger lots might be more risky but okay too 

[Ian Docwra]

13 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Things have certainly took a turn for the better in the last few runs, at least we're now looking like getting the proper cold into the SE & EA by Sunday.

Get the cold in and then anything can happen, I wouldn't even worry about looking for a breakdown just yet. Once this pattern sets up, it could be much harder to shift and more prolonged than the models currently indicate. 

Hmm - isn't the job of models to use the data to predict likely outcomes, which would include the establishment of cold blocks?  As none of them do so, I don't see where your prediction of it potentially being hard to shift comes from (much though I would like it to be the case!).

[Stu_London]

Just now, Surrey said:

That's like saying gambling small amounts of money is okay but bigger lots might be more risky but okay too 

I think the posts by Kold and myself can be seen as risk assessment, which has nothing to with gambling. 

The only form of risk management involved in this particular exercise is the management of expectation (There is no option to share, offset, insure against or avoid the risk as the weather will do what it wants, ultimately). 

If you view the posts as such, rather than an attempt to urinate on anyone's fireworks, then the you'll find the posts more helpful, I think. 

[Ian Docwra]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

That's like saying gambling small amounts of money is okay but bigger lots might be more risky but okay too 

To use a gambling analogy, perhaps more akin to playing a roulette wheel with 36 slots at first but which increases by 20 slots a day.  Uncertainly increases with time.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Ian Docwra

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Hmm - isn't the job of models to use the data to predict likely outcomes, which would include the establishment of cold blocks?  As none of them do so, I don't see where your prediction of it potentially being hard to shift comes from (much though I would like it to be the case!).

It is a very known fact in the weather world the models tend to under do cold blocks and cold air established.

 

The reason being in Europe and especially where we live is 99.98% of the time the weather is sourced from the West.. This means the models are almost "programmed" to default that pattern. The GFS has a love affair with it and is why it is known to blow lows up so much 

 

EDIT: For forum leaders/mods if you ignore someone I assume they can't see your posts either? 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Surrey

[Ian Docwra]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

It is a very known fact in the weather world the models tend to under do cold blocks and cold air established.

 

The reason being in Europe and especially where we live is 99.98% of the time the weather is sourced from the West.. This means the models are almost "programmed" to default that pattern. The GFS has a love affair with it and is why it is known to blow lows up so much 

Yes, indeed, but I would have thought that models should take the data and trends and use them without skewing unduly to what usually happens, although of course using historical data in the mix too.  I think 99.98% is a tad high for the UK's westerly influence proportion, BTW.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Ian Docwra said:

Yes, indeed, but I would have thought that models should take the data and trends and use them without skewing unduly to what usually happens, although of course using historical data in the mix too.  I think 99.98% is a tad high for the UK's westerly influence proportion, BTW.

Yeh probs a bit high percentage but it sure does feel like that sometimes lol! 

 

More so further south than the North but that would change year on year.. I mean in summer we have in recent years sourced more weather from the South than the Atlantic.. 

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

I think the posts by Kold and myself can be seen as risk assessment, which has nothing to with gambling. 

The only form of risk management involved in this particular exercise is the management of expectation (There is no option to share, offset, insure against or avoid the risk as the weather will do what it wants, ultimately). If you view the posts as such, rather than an attempt to urinate on anyone's fireworks, then the you'll find the posts more helpful, I think. 

When I'm more confident you can bet your bottom dollar I'll be on board with the best of the rampers! 

The margins are really fine for this Stu, if we can end up on the right side of the low and keep it far enough out of the way then things will be peachy, end up even marginally on the wrong side and the risk of rain or sleet increases exponentially for almost every mile closer to our shores.

Onto better news though, 32 out of 51 members have snow settling in the SE by Monday 12z, which is an improvement on yesterday evening! Still shows a good 30-40% do not get snow down to this part of the country. EA the numbers of members giving snow are higher again.

PS - and btw locally I'm expecting very little here, same as with the BFTE in 2018, light flurries but that was it until storm Emma came along. I suspect the same broad evolution will happen again and I'll be just a little too far west unless a very strong streamer sets up. Should be nicely placed for anything from the SW mind you afterwards.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, TonyK St Albans said:

 

The downside to it all was that the lying snow hung around and got compacted into a treacherous sheet of ice. Sometimes it would turn to slush only to refreeze overnight. It all got very, very mucky. There was no general thaw until towards the end of February by which time we were all mighty relieved to see the back of it.

 

 

Sounds incredible. Though the ice and muck not so much fun. It’s why I don’t like snow lying for too long, it starts looking ugly before long and becomes dangerous, but it is lovely for the first few days and especially if there are top-ups (which rarely happens).

Think kold weather and others are right to be cautious about this upcoming spell. It’s the UK, what can go wrong usually does and milder air is very close on some model output. Though it is the best chance at cold and snow so far, this winter, hope it happens!

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

When I'm more confident you can bet your bottom dollar I'll be on board with the best of the rampers! 

The margins are really fine for this Stu, if we can end up on the right side of the low and keep it far enough out of the way then things will be peachy, end up even marginally on the wrong side and the risk of rain or sleet increases exponentially for almost every mile closer to our shores.

Onto better news though, 32 out of 51 members have snow settling in the SE by Monday 12z, which is an improvement on yesterday evening! Still shows a good 30-40% do not get snow down to this part of the country. EA the numbers of members giving snow are higher again.

Agree - when it is nailed on it is nailed on.

Whilst there are risks (however small) that threaten expectation, only right that they should be highlighted. 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

It is a very known fact in the weather world the models tend to under do cold blocks and cold air established.

 

The reason being in Europe and especially where we live is 99.98% of the time the weather is sourced from the West.. This means the models are almost "programmed" to default that pattern. The GFS has a love affair with it and is why it is known to blow lows up so much 

 

EDIT: For forum leaders/mods if you ignore someone I assume they can't see your posts either? 

TBF, Surrey, it's also true that nine-times-out-of-ten when someone says that (that the models underestimate the resilience of cold blocks) the Atlantic weather systems take over anyway, regardless of what the models are saying?