South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[kold weather]

Just now, Sarahgreatchart said:

Hopefully you can walk it! From myself and others I know you get more after effects the better your immunity

 both hubby and I were tired a few days but he was like flu 

 

i was fine

Sadly its a fair few miles away, 20 to be exact! Maybe a bit far to hike in the snow!

As long as its not too severe I will drive it providing its still on and not cancelled.

So I have a reason to hope this event doesn't happen, so hopefully that will avoid any accusations of hopecasting from my side in the future!

[danm]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm meant to be getting my vaccine jab on Sunday morning...oops!

Nice! I have you in my mind as quite young, relatively speaking? Quite early to get it? 

[Marie]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm meant to be getting my vaccine jab on Sunday morning...oops!

I was offered my covid vaccine for Monday but changed it for tomorrow just incase of snow

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Yes agree. Just to illustrate the depth of cold over on the near continent, look at the forecast on Sunday and Monday in Amsterdam. Daytime temperatures of -5c and heavy snow with 40 mph winds. Blizzard?

I was quite surprised that even though the ICON doesn't have any modelled snow cover (which will be wrong due to the streamers, and banded convection inland, even if it ends up somewhat hit and miss) it still was showing widely surpressed maxes either at 0c or a little below.

My bet is IF the winds do turn ESE on Wednesday as per a few of the models, we may get exceptionally cold even without snow cover. Could be some stunning winter scenes with lakes frozen over even without snow cover.

Its also well worth remembering the depth of the cold when we do come towards the breakdown. Usually in such a set-up the first front is a snow-rain event. This time round it will probably a snow the whole way through job, at least for the first front through. Only risk is the air is too dry and cold and the front dies a death somewhere over Somerset!

Also whilst early, it is worth flagging up the higher than  normal risk of freezing rain later this week should we end up going down the milder path, especially on Thursday.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, danm said:

Nice! I have you in my mind as quite young, relatively speaking? Quite early to get it? 

Yes, I'm getting it through work and where I work technically is a residential school, hence I come under a care worker, even though thats not my actual job role since I'm in education.

I would have been in group 6 otherwise, so I suspect with the way things are going I'd probably get my first dose towards the back end of Feb one way or the other.

Nice to talk to you about something other than covid mind you, this cold spell is a good break and reset from that thread.

PS, I don't know whether...gulp...31 is that young, or is it?!

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[john mac1]

50 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Come on everyone, let's avoid going down the road of commenting/criticising specific posters in the MOD thread please. 

Why? I find it hilarious that they can have a row about the weather

[john mac1]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also I'm really surprised just how low maxes are progged to be...

Consdering we are under modest cold (relative to some easterly events) we are still likely to see sub zero maxes very widely. Even the ICON which is lacking in snow cover due to not doing a good job of convection has us around -1/2c as maxes. This tells me IF snowfall is more widespread through Sun-Mon we could have an exceptionally cold days on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Also goes to show how useful it is to have a major snow event upstream in Holland and W.Germany. Because of it the surface is BITTER and that air comes across the snow fields and cools far further than you'd expect based on the 850hpa profile alone.

If we end up with snow cover, the maxes may well end up in the -4/-5c range quite widely, which is WAY over punching what you'd expect with -10/11c isotherm, thats closer to what you'd expect from something like -15/16C at 850hp.

Let’s hold that thought. I think you could be right!! 

[Neilsouth]

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The weather is about to turn much colder for many parts of the UK, with a biting wind and potentially disruptive snowfall.

 

[alexisj9]

57 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Just a little bit of advice to keep you all warm. If, as seems likely, large parts of the region remain below freezing from Saturday night until Wednesday or Thursday next week, I would advise anyone who has a condensing boiler with a condensate pipe that runs outside, to lag it properly. I found out that mine wasn't during the BFTE in 2018. It froze and stopped the boiler from working. I managed to defrost it eventually but it had knackered the boiler and I had to wait 3 days for an engineer to get it going again, not fun.

It's a thin plastic pipe, about 1cm in diameter, that runs from the boiler to the nearest drain and takes condensation away from the boiler. Even if you think yours is lagged check it for any gaps or broken lagging. It doesn't take much to freeze it so put the thickest lagging you can fit around it.

Just had a new one put in, and they lagged it up straight away, also from experience, if it gets that cold, I'll poor boiling water on it. Advice given to me by an engineer ages ago. Not had any more problems since.

[john mac1]

16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm meant to be getting my vaccine jab on Sunday morning...oops!

Hmm!! Vaccine or snow!! That is the question!!

[danm]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes, I'm getting it through work and where I work technically is a residential school, hence I come under a care worker, even though thats not my actual job role since I'm in education.

I would have been in group 6 otherwise, so I suspect with the way things are going I'd probably get my first dose towards the back end of Feb one way or the other.

Nice to talk to you about something other than covid mind you, this cold spell is a good break and reset from that thread.

PS, I don't know whether...gulp...31 is that young, or is it?!

Haha I’m 35 and already feeling the years tick by! Yep def nice to talk about other things than Covid! Hope the jab goes well on Sunday. My parents both had their first doses today.

[Nick L]

9 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Why? I find it hilarious that they can have a row about the weather

Snow is the most important thing around these parts 

[Maidstone marginal]

I been lurking about for many years. But I will never post in the model output thread,, if get eaten alive 

[Snowman31]

Is Hirlam a good model? It seems quite a way further north then some other models? 

54 hours below. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Snowman31

[Arrows1986]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol ridiculous estimates

There will be no 40cm in London. You've got more chance of Newcastle winning the title lol I think there will be a fair bit around and it'll surprise people butn40cm is ludicrous 

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Is Hirlam a good model? It seems quite a way further north then some other models? 

54 hours below. 

I hope not this time.

[lassie23]

Is it still on, usually it has turned into a 24 hour wonder by now

[greenhithe]

15 hours ago, gooner265 said:

I definitely saw more snow when I moved to Rochester from Dartford and I was very low , just 5 mins walk from the high street, but then there was a Thames streamer a few years back where we missed out and my mum got plenty back in Dartford so it's swings and roundabouts really. 

I am right on the Thames so any streamers i will enjoy until I return to medway hopefully next year.

 we have had some epic snows in the past one i renember was in the 80s were we open our front door to see a wall of snow ( 6ft drifts)

and before the bypass was built we got snowed in and had food diliveries  by pony and trap  hence why i have a 4X4 mokka

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Is it still on, usually it has turned into a 24 hour wonder by now

Looks like a solid 5 day event from midnight on Saturday (which is +48 hours now - surely it can't go wrong from here).

Snow distribution to be resolved.

GFS 18z in FI has several dry days with sunshine and temps of 13C-15C - probably would scrape a 16 or 17C in favoured spots given the set up.

That would be my second choice as the days get longer into the second half of Feb

 

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

There will be no 40cm in London. You've got more chance of Newcastle winning the title lol I think there will be a fair bit around and it'll surprise people butn40cm is ludicrous 

The forecast was 30-40?

Between snow saturday night sunday monday and tuessay from showers is it really that far fetched somewhere in the south east (and its a huge area) wont see somewhere in that region? The met forecast possibility of 15cm saturday into close of play sunday on its own. So an additional 15cm at an absolute push 25cm cant be seen on top with a possible thames streamer monday and tuesday?

It really is not as far fetched as you think.

I never said widely people would see these fugures 

I think it only right u step in before my post gets completely taken out of context for newbies

[londonblizzard]

14 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

There will be no 40cm in London. You've got more chance of Newcastle winning the title lol I think there will be a fair bit around and it'll surprise people butn40cm is ludicrous 

Some exceptional accumulations over holland expected on the eastern flank of the same area of precipitation:



Would take one hell of a direct shift west for london to get anything like 40cm though, so incredibly unlikely.

Edit: Take those accumulations with a pinch of salt haha

Edited February 5, 2021 by londonblizzard

[sukayuonsensnow]

Going by the current models I think 5-15cm is probable for many of us, away from maybe the south coast which won't get very much snow on this occasion (a dusting or light covering). Depends how heavy the snow is on Sunday, how quickly it turns to snow overnight Saturday into Sunday (I feel like the timing of the temperatures going down, and how heavy the precipitation is, isn't quite nailed yet).

Some local hills probably more, maybe 9/10in for the North Downs and Chilterns? 

I think how much snow we get on the ground depends on the exact developments on Saturday night.

A couple weeks ago a friend of mine near Basingstoke only had a few cms of snow, yet in NE Hampshire we had 7cm of snow as the band intensified and started to pivot as it crossed Fleet/Farnham/Hartley Wintney. Detail on intensity of snow and evaporative cooling overnight Saturday into Sunday may be hard to forecast. Could be some very deep snow on some hills locally regarding this if conditions are favourable enough. Forecasting 2-5cm over a broad area may be undermining the event in this case.

The wind also needs to be taken into consideration, as it could become fairly windy with snow drifts for some of us. Not as windy as the Netherlands though, they look set to get a very infamous winter storm/blizzard over the weekend.

[Maidstone marginal]

5 minutes ago, greenhithe said:

 we have had some epic snows in the past one i renember was in the 80s were we open our front door to see a wall of snow ( 6ft drifts)

and before the bypass was built we got snowed in and had food diliveries  by pony and trap  hence why i have a 4X4 mokka

Early Jan 1985 in south east Kent was a big event. No one ever talks about that either, but I'm showing my age now.

[gooner265]

8 minutes ago, greenhithe said:

 we have had some epic snows in the past one i renember was in the 80s were we open our front door to see a wall of snow ( 6ft drifts)

and before the bypass was built we got snowed in and had food diliveries  by pony and trap  hence why i have a 4X4 mokka

That must have been 87 , remember that well , I was in Darenth then , was totally cut off for days.

[sukayuonsensnow]

13 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The forecast was 30-40?

Between snow saturday night sunday monday and tuessay from showers is it really that far fetched somewhere in the south east (and its a huge area) wont see somewhere in that region? The met forecast possibility of 15cm saturday into close of play sunday on its own. So an additional 15cm at an absolute push 25cm cant be seen on top with a possible thames streamer monday and tuesday?

It really is not as far fetched as you think.

I never said widely people would see these fugures 

I think it only right u step in before my post gets completely taken out of context for newbies

Last few snow events they've really under forecast the snow amounts even at short range for me in NE Hampshire.

31st January 2019/1st February 2019 - 3-7cm - though that was a little lower than what we got, the extra 4-6in the next day was a complete surprise for many Central Southern areas within a zone between the A37, M4, M25, M3 and A303. A very conservative snow forecast that ended up being a much bigger event.

24th January 2021 - Was only expected to get a few cm at best, but as the band of heavy snow started to pivot, it became heavy and some got 3in of snow within 90-120 minutes.

It really depends on how quickly the rain turns to snow Saturday night, how quickly the snow settles, and who gets the heaviest snow for the longest (24th January a very localised area near Derby got lucky).

I wouldn't be surprised if 40cm fell somewhere, probably a higher part of the North Downs to the S/SE of London, or the Chilterns (more so near the M1). Probably not far off in Amsterdam across the channel, but for London a few inches of lying snow by Monday is probably a good guess.

Edited February 5, 2021 by sukayuonsensnow