South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[stainesbloke]

Looking good for the eastern half of the region, I’d be getting excited if I lived in East Anglia, Essex or Kent More of a ‘typical’ cold easterly spell, so these areas are always favoured. West of London looks a little more ‘iffy’, reminds me of quite a few occasions in the 80’s when the east got buried and the rest of the region was wondering what the fuss was about. Hopefully, some disturbances/streamers to give everyone a covering

[kold weather]

UKMO is really rather agressive on its 00z run again, probably the most out of all of the global models:

6am, this is all snow:

BTW max depth of snow on this 00z run by Wednesday is 26cms in NW Kent. It also has a clear Thames streamer element, one of the stronger returns I've seen so far for it.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

So, the countdown to Sunday morning is on. I’ve been trying to spot and identify signs of precursors to the cold spell incoming. Noticing it’s very still and flat calm, similar to conditions before the BFTE and March 2013. Also trying to spot any eccentric/unusual behaviour with wildlife today. All good things to try and spot for a natural perspective! 

There have been vast flocks of birds seen flying westwards over the last few days, apparently  

[Blazerblue]

Heck, 54 pages, is it gonna snow then?

Damp, cloudy morning, yesterday was lovely day until about 2pm, had wall to wall sunshine, then the cloud and drizzle came in, obviously quite some rain over night as puddles about today. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Blazerblue

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Heck, 54 pages, is it gonna snow then?

Where you are? Likely to get a right dumping!

[Speedbird]

17 minutes ago, Southender said:

Lovely Jubbly

Expect MetO amber warnings later this morning.   

Maybe a chance of a red warning later today/tomorrow.

[abovefreezing]

10 hours ago, Big Dave said:

Or as soon as you say “I know... I’ll live in Ashford”... the end of snow

lol. dave!

[saintkip]

For my location the ECM is pony, no snow from the front on Sunday, of the models it looks like UKMO will give most snow but GFS not far behind.

[Bradley in Kent]

Morning all, Bradley here in the Medway valley North Kent.

I'm now confident that we'll see a cold few days early next week,  but am very very sceptical about some forecasts and snow charts.

The dew points are looking high, warm air not too far away and the ground will still be warm from Saturday. Of course snow depths will depend on how long it takes for rain to turn to snow, which in my view will take longer than forecast. Then, even if the snow does eventually settle Sunday afternoon, ppn isn't likely to be heavy enough to stack up depths to those estimates. 

Us down here have massively missed out recently with 4 bust events in the last 6 weeks. I feel these forecasts overdo it and send people into a pointless overhype. 

On a slightly more up beat note, I am of course looking forward to the nowcasting and I'll be happy with even just a dusting!

[kold weather]

Having looked at all the models I really am right on the western edge of the guidence. Some models give a decent amount locally, others would struggle to even give a dusting.

Any shift east probably leaves me high and dry (then its down to lady luck with any streamers) whilst any shift west brings me more into the game.

I've no idea yet really what the solution will be, honestly this far west its probably going to be an on the day call based on the radar.

Much more comfortable situation further east, especially east of London.

[EML Network]

Trying hard NOT to get excited down here (erm that sounds very wrong !!!) 

But over the last 24 hours at least for us snow starved south Central / South East coasters it is looking more and more promising with each passing run that we MIGHT see some snow over Sunday and Monday and possibilities right through until Wednesday.

The issue with a warm sector seems to have lessened over the last 3 or 4 runs it's still there but it looks like the warmer uppers have been mixed out and replaced by uppers easily supportive of snowfall now. 

Control run shows this quite nicely. 

Wedge of ''warmer'' uppers is still there even on Monday morning, but it's around -3/-4 as opposed to the close to 0 it was showing this time yesterday, but it's plenty cold enough given the direction of travel.

I'm not expecting to see all that much falling from the Sky here on Sunday, but no doubt others further North, such as  Kent, North Surrey, London, Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk in particular, well you guys look like on Sunday at least you might be buried and im happy for you.  seems like you've been almost as unlucky as we have down here on the coast over the last 4 or 5 years. 

My eyes are now being drawn to Tuesday as there is a staggering number of runs that have a quite localised area of PPN forming around Kent, Sussex, Surrey some of this is as a result of the low heading through North France and others show this as a feed from the east, but it seems we might be lucky here and whichever direction this comes from...east or west anything that does fall out of the sky would probably be snow...so going to show the various runs picking up on this from the 00z GFS from around the 96-120 timeframe, but because there are soooo many I'm literally just using the runs going up to run No 10 else i'll be here all day.

Anything beyond 120 is too far away given the current set up tbh regardless of what it's showing so I'm not going to include anything post 120.

Control (+120)

Run 2 (+120)

Run 3 (+108)

Run 4 (+108)

Run 5 (+114)

Run 7 (+108)

Run 8 (+96)

Run 9 (+108)

So from the first 10 runs + the control run I.e 11 runs that I've looked at 8 of them are showing this feature which is statistically significant and it's in the relatively reliable timeframe as well so if any of you do miss out on Sunday there looks like being another bite at the cherry at least for us south of London on Tuesday. 

 

 

[Blazerblue]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Where you are? Likely to get a right dumping!

 its definitely looking that way, might even get enough for a snowman, but then again, being in the triangle, it could all go around us 

[Big Dave]

10 minutes ago, abovefreezing said:

lol. dave!

Looking a bit better for prospects this morning though! 

[snowblind]

Also made the mistake of popping into the mod thread earlier. Loads of bickering about a potential breakdown 6/7 days away and virtually no discussion about the next 5 days. Think I'll stay out of there for a while.

[Speedbird]

9 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Morning all, Bradley here in the Medway valley North Kent.

I'm now confident that we'll see a cold few days early next week,  but am very very sceptical about some forecasts and snow charts.

The dew points are looking high, warm air not too far away and the ground will still be warm from Saturday. Of course snow depths will depend on how long it takes for rain to turn to snow, which in my view will take longer than forecast. Then, even if the snow does eventually settle Sunday afternoon, ppn isn't likely to be heavy enough to stack up depths to those estimates. 

Us down here have massively missed out recently with 4 bust events in the last 6 weeks. I feel these forecasts overdo it and send people into a pointless overhype. 

On a slightly more up beat note, I am of course looking forward to the nowcasting and I'll be happy with even just a dusting!

Your location as nothing to worry about. You are firmly in the sweet spot as things stand.

[Big Dave]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

Also made the mistake of popping into the mod thread earlier. Loads of bickering about a potential breakdown 6/7 days away and virtually no discussion about the next 5 days. Think I'll stay out of there for a while.

Yes, early switch to a very regional focus now that a Nationwide event seems (at least for the immediate) off the cards. 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

Also made the mistake of popping into the mod thread earlier. Loads of bickering about a potential breakdown 6/7 days away and virtually no discussion about the next 5 days. Think I'll stay out of there for a while.

Yes, might be best avoided with plenty of toys being launched out of prams.

With current forecast, you'll be better placed in here over the next 4/5 days

[EML Network]

2 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Also made the mistake of popping into the mod thread earlier. Loads of bickering about a potential breakdown 6/7 days away and virtually no discussion about the next 5 days. Think I'll stay out of there for a while.

It's always the same, they'll still probably be bickering whilst it's snowing outside and actually miss getting out to enjoy it 

[Mark Bayley]

Hmm as others have said, potentially looking less good away from EA / East of London for Sunday (everything from a dusting to several cms for my location). However, really down to radar watching on the day (we all know how it went a few Sundays back!). Going forward, should hopefully get a few showers and perhaps a period of snow from the south/ south west. Still, I am pleased that a number of those that missed out so far this winter look to do quite well! (Kent, EA etc..)

[HammerJack]

4 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Also made the mistake of popping into the mod thread earlier. Loads of bickering about a potential breakdown 6/7 days away and virtually no discussion about the next 5 days. Think I'll stay out of there for a while.

Yep I noticed that too. To many IMBY posts starting to crop up regarding Sunday's snow. I actually thought it was a bust for the weekend reading some of the post, then I realised they were talking about next Thursday!!
Im sticking in here from now on.

[Mark]

Not sure I'll be able to keep up with here today! 

 

[snowblind]

Pretty mild today, temps up to about 10. Difficult to imagine how different it's going to be in a couple of days time.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Hmm as others have said, potentially looking less good away from EA / East of London for Sunday (everything from a dusting to several cms for my location). However, really down to radar watching on the day (we all know how it went a few Sundays back!). Going forward, should hopefully get a few showers and perhaps a period of snow from the south/ south west. Still, I am pleased that a number of those that missed out so far this winter look to do quite well! (Kent, EA etc..)

Yeah I think Sunday is still highly uncertain for western parts of the region, some models get here and others struggle. No real consistency yet and so until that can zero in a little stronger one way or the other (basically a 50-50 split atm).

For example, looking through the ensembles the ECM 00z operational is towards the lower end of the range for the western parts of the region, but sits neatly into the middle of the range further east.

An amber warning will be absolutely justified for EA and Kent (maybe E.London) some point today. Yellow warning probably suffices further west due to higher levels of uncertanity here. 

IF we get towards the upper end and then get a streamer set up, a red alert isn't out of the question for Estuary regions IMO.

Providing everything goes off ok, 20-30cms in NW Kent, maybe E.London and SW Essex looks quite possible, probably a wider area over E.Anglia of 10-20cms and then locally 20-30cms as well depending on the following distrubution of showers, etc.

Further west 1-5cms seems more reasonable, but again locally streamers, especially for Surrey, Berkshire and maybe parts of Hampshire may significantly boost that total.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[Uxbridge90]

Still looking exciting for those in the Eastern part of our region. Hard to call west of East London, hopefully todays runs can reassure a few of us!

I just hope we don't end up with bitterly cold winds and miserable gray skies all week.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Uxbridge90

[Bevbrighton]

21 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Trying hard NOT to get excited down here (erm that sounds very wrong !!!) 

But over the last 24 hours at least for us snow starved south Central / South East coasters it is looking more and more promising with each passing run that we MIGHT see some snow over Sunday and Monday and possibilities right through until Wednesday.

The issue with a warm sector seems to have lessened over the last 3 or 4 runs it's still there but it looks like the warmer uppers have been mixed out and replaced by uppers easily supportive of snowfall now. 

Control run shows this quite nicely. 

Wedge of ''warmer'' uppers is still there even on Monday morning, but it's around -3/-4 as opposed to the close to 0 it was showing this time yesterday, but it's plenty cold enough given the direction of travel.

I'm not expecting to see all that much falling from the Sky here on Sunday, but no doubt others further North, such as  Kent, North Surrey, London, Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk in particular, well you guys look like on Sunday at least you might be buried and im happy for you.  seems like you've been almost as unlucky as we have down here on the coast over the last 4 or 5 years. 

My eyes are now being drawn to Tuesday as there is a staggering number of runs that have a quite localised area of PPN forming around Kent, Sussex, Surrey some of this is as a result of the low heading through North France and others show this as a feed from the east, but it seems we might be lucky here and whichever direction this comes from...east or west anything that does fall out of the sky would probably be snow...so going to show the various runs picking up on this from the 00z GFS from around the 96-120 timeframe, but because there are soooo many I'm literally just using the runs going up to run No 10 else i'll be here all day.

Anything beyond 120 is too far away given the current set up tbh regardless of what it's showing so I'm not going to include anything post 120.

Control (+120)

Run 2 (+120)

Run 3 (+108)

Run 4 (+108)

Run 5 (+114)

Run 7 (+108)

Run 8 (+96)

Run 9 (+108)

So from the first 10 runs + the control run I.e 11 runs that I've looked at 8 of them are showing this feature which is statistically significant and it's in the relatively reliable timeframe as well so if any of you do miss out on Sunday there looks like being another bite at the cherry at least for us south of London on Tuesday. 

 

 

I’m in peacehaven so used to missing out but am still hopeful of a few hours of light snow Sunday, sounds like your not hopeful?