South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Number 23]

1 minute ago, kate1 said:

We are just outside it too, but our town usually does very well from this sort of set-up..... and it's early days!

Yeah I'm chilled at the moment!

These warnings will wander around a fair bit over the next day or two I'm sure.

[Lampostwatcher]

East Oxford is the westernern extent of the yellow warnings 

[simonhall6]

5 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Ooh - I'm within a gnat's chuff of the amber area.

Expect more updates though!

We are both half in and half out the current amber zone lol

[Jamie M]

Caking incoming for North Kent it seems.

My 0.2 cm guess from earlier this week might be multiplied by 50 x 

[EJA]

You couldn’t make it up .... even the yellow warning goes around Brighton!!

[eddie1]

Just snuck in the Amber warning in gorleston Norfolk fingers crossed we get some 

[Number 23]

Just now, simonhall6 said:

We are both half in and half out the current amber zone lol

Haha yeah tell me about it! I'm SE Chelmsford near the Galleywood A12 junction, and was wondering if I'd sneaked in 

Pretty sure we'll do OK though!

[jamesgold]

On the met matrix, those areas are only in amber for the highest impact, it’s still down on the likelihood. This means that as we get closer, we should see likelihood increase, bringing all areas into amber, and if it gets really extreme I wouldn’t be surprised to see a red for today’s amber areas - they’re thinking highest possible impact already

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Oooh dont remember the big crash on the A12 but sounds plausible given the conditions

I do, it was on the national news, not nice a nice childhood memory to be fair.

[Lampostwatcher]

Interesting reminds me of the beast from the east a few years ago 

The warnings will more likely be extended than reduced I'd imagine

[simonhall6]

Just now, Number 23 said:

Haha yeah tell me about it! I'm SE Chelmsford near the Galleywood A12 junction, and was wondering if I'd sneaked in 

Pretty sure we'll do OK though!

I’m slightly east of Brentwood near the Shenfield A12 turn off  fingers crossed we should be fine !

[Snipper]

11 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Remember making giant swiss rolls out of the snow with friends in our local park near Brentwood. It just kept coming. We were ten years old and couldn't believe what we were seeing.

We lived at the top of a steep hill near the A12, and the footpaths were shovelled clear as the snow was so deep - impossible to differentiate between the road, the pavement, and people's driveways. Either side of the cleared areas the snow almost reached my waist.

Was the start of my love for big snow events and extreme weather in general.

 

Assume you mean Weald Park, which is is good. In the past skated on the lakes. Danbury good for tobogganing. Use to skate at night on Danbury Park lake. Had Tilly lamps on the ice and skated round them. The poor old ducks use to waddle over to see what was happening. I am sure health and safety has put a stop to all that simple fun. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Interesting - I expected the amber to stretch a little bit further west.

The totals look similar though - maybe hedging their bets a little, with the exposure near the coast leading to more problems.

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, HammerJack said:

 

Yes.

[WeatherCandy]

[seb]

Not surprised by the amber warning at all. German forecasters are in panic mode about the northwestern part of the country with many comparing what is forecast to the Dec 1978 blizzard. 

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, kate1 said:

Is it my imagination, or are the birds particularly vocal today? I've also heard quite a few seagulls overhead..... maybe I'm just looking for portents!

Not many sea gulls about here either, it strangely quite on the bird front.

[EML Network]

South Coast left out of the warning area ...yup that would be about right then

Will probably see a few flakes that took a wrong turn then if that's anything to go by or perhaps it's the dew points and they don't think the snow is going to settle anywhere south of the South Downs. 

plenty of Time for the warnings to be updated though. 

[Big Dave]

1 minute ago, WeatherCandy said:

Defined by MO as high impact but low likelihood. 

'Low Likelihood' seems a bit off given the model output however I guess that hints at confidence for an event which is still >36 hours out and therefore still subject to change. 

 

 

[Number 23]

6 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

I’m slightly east of Brentwood near the Shenfield A12 turn off  fingers crossed we should be fine !

I'm sure this will swallow us up soon as well. Just made me chuckle as Danbury, Billericay, Wickford all under it. We could lob a stone into it from where we are 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Number 23

[winterfreak]

I’m keeping everything crossed that here in the Tonbridge snow shield we finally do ok  

[Robster]

4 minutes ago, WeatherCandy said:

Typical! Amber warning doesn't quite make it to Norwich! 

[Badgers01]

3 minutes ago, EML Network said:

South Coast left out of the warning area ...yup that would be about right then

Will probably see a few flakes that took a wrong turn then if that's anything to go by or perhaps it's the dew points and they don't think the snow is going to settle anywhere south of the South Downs. 

plenty of Time for the warnings to be updated though. 

its been a constant trend for southern area to be less cold with not good uppers.... might rend the other way though swell

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Interesting - I expected the amber to stretch a little bit further west.

The totals look similar though - maybe hedging their bets a little, with the exposure near the coast leading to more problems.

Yeah, based on the UKV snow depths by 00z Monday, would have expected an orange finger/sausage to stick further W/SW around the south of London - maybe they may extend tomorrow if the models settle more on where highest totals could be. There's still some variation between UKMO GM / UKV and GFS, EC and ICON. EC more conservative with snow amounts away from the Amber warning area.

 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

I’m keeping everything crossed that here in the Tonbridge snow shield we finally do ok  

 

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I’m keeping everything crossed that here in the Tonbridge snow shield we finally do ok  

You'll be fine

Hopefully it'll turn red in due course