South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[alexisj9]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Any news on 06z ecm for the wider uk?!!

As I tried to say in the model thread, and was mentioned here last night, quite often in the se, 850s are under done, and improve closer to the time. I'm glad this time it seems to be happening this way. It did happen for our last couple of snow events too, but not so marked. It's amazing what highs in the right place can do 

[lottiekent]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

So I’ve located my sledge in the garage very dusty as you would expect after 3 years of being a spiders home. I’m refusing to get it out and hose it down until tomorrow afternoon as I just know I’ll jinx it for the region. Tell me I’m not the only stupidly superstitious mug in here?...

Mine has moved from the garage to the garden. Refuse to clean it until tomorrow too for fear it'll make it rain!

[Southender]

Just now, nanu said:

Thats it.. its jinxed!!  Somebody has dug a sledge out to dust down.. its all gonna rain now 

No no. I’ve located it. Not dug it out. I’m not responsible I promise!

[SLEETY]

Met office credibility down the pan if we see any lying snow on the Sussex coasts, as showing nothing, they are WRONG BTW if you are living near Sussex coast

Similar situation in 2009 and 2010 got nearly a foot here, when forecasts went for hardly anything. Best bet look at the real-time radar

Edited February 5, 2021 by SLEETY

[Ian Docwra]

Here in NE Surrey I expect patchy sleet and rain at my level (75m) and wet snow on the Downs, Leith Hill, etc.  After this week's very mild weather the ground is just too warm and wet (especially with rain preceding any sleet and snow) to accept settling snow at first and even when it does start to settle there won't be enough of it to produce interest (we're out of the firing line of any possible streamers anyway).  I've been out all day putting up a wire fence along our hedges (to keep our dog in) and it was hot work in the strong sun and mild air.

I'll have to content myself with the pleasant fall we had on 24 -26 January here.

[Big Dave]

2 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Mine has moved from the garage to the garden. Refuse to clean it until tomorrow too for fear it'll make it rain!

[nanu]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

No no. I’ve located it. Not dug it out. I’m not responsible I promise!

Il let you off... just this once.. but if i get less then 5cm of snow, i know your out on your sledge. 

[kold weather]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Any news on 06z ecm for the wider uk?!!

Unfortunately I haven't got access to it, so I can't really say!

What does seem likely on Sunday is that there is going to be a zone with relatively less snowfall working down probably from the E.Midlands through to the IoW as the two bands pivot around a central point. This is because when the first band comes through for this area its still likely to be of rain and probably back end snow, whilst further west the air has cooled just that little bit more by the time that band comes through, and the 2nd band may not make it far enough west to make up the difference.

So there likely will be an area where there is a reduced snowfall totals , perhaps an unlucky some will get nothing at all if the cold air doesn't dig in quickly enough to turn the western region of precip to snow and they are too far west/north for the 2nd.

You and me both might end up in that zone judging by a number of the high resolution models, though you may get more of a benefit from the 2nd area moving in from the east, I may be too far SW to really get too much from that.

Locally I expect a dusting here on Sunday morning (which I won't cry about if it means I can get the jab done!) but plenty of interest afterwards.

 

[Southender]

1 minute ago, nanu said:

Il let you off... just this once.. but if i get less then 5cm of snow, i know your out on your sledge. 

It’s @lottiekent fault. She’s actually got hers out the garage

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Here in NE Surrey I expect patchy sleet and rain at my level (75m) and wet snow on the Downs, Leith Hill, etc.  After this week's very mild weather the ground is just too warm and wet (especially with rain preceding any sleet and snow) to accept settling snow at first and even when it does start to settle there won't be enough of it to produce interest (we're out of the firing line of any possible streamers anyway).  I've been out all day putting up a wire fence along our hedges (to keep our dog in) and it was hot work in the strong sun and mild air.

I'll have to content myself with the pleasant fall we had on 24 -26 January here.

The air will be cold enough, thats not a concern at all.

Once it tucks in you probably will be struggling to get above 0c until Thursday at least.

More uncertainty is just how much precip there actually will be around. in our neck of the woods, its quite possible looking at the 06z high resolution models that we are going to be stuck between two separate snowier zones. Thats not to say there won't be snow, but it may well be higher both east AND west of us, depending on timings.

PS - you'd be in a good place should the Thames streamer effect happen though, really good position.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[tomp456]

Tragic that I live on the coast! Will miss most or all of the snow!

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Unfortunately I haven't got access to it, so I can't really say!

What does seem likely on Sunday is that there is going to be a zone with relatively less snowfall working down probably from the E.Midlands through to the IoW as the two bands pivot around a central point. This is because when the first band comes through for this area its still likely to be of rain and probably back end snow, whilst further west the air has cooled just that little bit more by the time that band comes through, and the 2nd band may not make it far enough west to make up the difference.

So there likely will be an area where there is a reduced snowfall totals , perhaps an unlucky some will get nothing at all if the cold air doesn't dig in quickly enough to turn the western region of precip to snow and they are too far west/north for the 2nd.

You and me both might end up in that zone judging by a number of the high resolution models, though you may get more of a benefit from the 2nd area moving in from the east, I may be too far SW to really get too much from that.

Locally I expect a dusting here on Sunday morning (which I won't cry about if it means I can get the jab done!) but plenty of interest afterwards.

 

Your  over analysing this way too much, not even the Met know exactly how this will pan out, hence they say these warnings will probably change. 

Just watch the radar be easier 

[Southender]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The air will be cold enough, thats not a concern at all.

Once it tucks in you probably will be struggling to get above 0c until Thursday at least.

More uncertainty is just how much precip there actually will be around. in our neck of the woods, its quite possible looking at the 06z high resolution models that we are going to be stuck between two separate snowier zones. Thats not to say there won't be snow, but it may well be higher both east AND west of us, depending on timings.

You need to get back to Thurrock mate. Essential snow chasing and all that.

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Met office credibility down the pan if we see any lying snow on the Sussex coasts, as showing nothing, they are WRONG BTW if you are living near Sussex coast

Similar situation in 2009 and 2010 got nearly a foot here, when forecasts went for hardly anything. Best bet look at the real-time radar

What are you looking at ? They have you down for 0c and snow with severe weather warnings from Sun - Weds? 

[SLEETY]

Just now, tomp456 said:

Tragic that I live on the coast! Will miss most or all of the snow!

Don't take this warnings too literally, I bet you anything we will see a few inches on the coast like in previous similar set-ups

[tomp456]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Don't take this warnings too literally, I bet you anything we will see a few inches on the coast like in previous similar set-ups

Let’s hope so  

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Here in NE Surrey I expect patchy sleet and rain at my level (75m) and wet snow on the Downs, Leith Hill, etc.  After this week's very mild weather the ground is just too warm and wet (especially with rain preceding any sleet and snow) to accept settling snow at first and even when it does start to settle there won't be enough of it to produce interest (we're out of the firing line of any possible streamers anyway).  I've been out all day putting up a wire fence along our hedges (to keep our dog in) and it was hot work in the strong sun and mild air.

I'll have to content myself with the pleasant fall we had on 24 -26 January here.

Pal after nightfall tomorrow @saturday pm.. all precipitation @region wide will be snow!!.. the overheads couldn’t be more ripe if we tried.. @dews @bulbs @850s.... this is a polar continental pass... =white... not wet .. trust me on this!!@rapid cooling evaporators... any snow falling will be of powdery dendrite variaty and will stick like s@@t to a blanket

Edited February 5, 2021 by tight isobar

[Ian Docwra]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The air will be cold enough, thats not a concern at all.

Once it tucks in you probably will be struggling to get above 0c until Thursday at least.

More uncertainty is just how much precip there actually will be around. in our neck of the woods, its quite possible looking at the 06z high resolution models that we are going to be stuck between two separate snowier zones. Thats not to say there won't be snow, but it may well be higher both east AND west of us, depending on timings.

PS - you'd be in a good place should the Thames streamer effect happen though, really good position.

Yes the air might just be cold enough at better altitude, but the ground is very warm for the time of year.   We are located such that we are almost always shielded from Kentish and Thames streamers, though, so my expectation is for thin slush.  Nothing to stop me walking up Box Hill down the road for something a tad colder though!

[SLEETY]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What are you looking at ? They have you down for 0c and snow with severe weather warnings from Sun - Weds? 

Look at the map yellow stop a mile or so from all the SE coasts from Bexhill westwards, lol. Your location about 8 inches I think. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by SLEETY

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Your  over analysing this way too much, not even the Met know exactly how this will pan out, hence they say these warnings will probably change. 

Just watch the radar be easier 

Not really mate, just saying it how the models are at the moment. No BS here regarding how this will go and I've said plenty of times already anyone who has any certainty is talking out of their rear , and thats either direction (either snow or not!)

Not saying there isn't going to be snow, just there maybe relatively less in some locations. Which is perfectly normal, can't all jackpot afterall!

My next post will be one you'll like anyway I suspect! (ps, I've got relatives in Littlehampton, and so I visited Worthing back in the summer, had a nice trip on the ferris wheel there!)

[Matty88]

Absolutely - anyone on this forum please DO NOT take the warnings OR apps too literally.... the Meto are correct to include the yellow warning zone for the large swathe of EA/SE. I still suspect once those uppers kick in the initial atmospheric response will be quite widespread with showers/precip. This isn't a stalling front scenario like the last few times.... 

[pinball wizard]

20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Has anyone noticed the further warnings that go out until Wednesday now . That’s on a daily basis too

Noticed them? Noticed them! I've printed them out in A3 and stuck them to my office wall....

[Coopsy]

What fascinating forecasts and charts popping up. One thing that’s certain is you’d be very unlucky if you didn’t see snow settle over the next few days.

At this stage snow amounts and locations is uncertain. BUT in this set up any type of streamer can set up as wind directions change over time - with 50mph winds forecast and winds changing direction as things pass through.

Id expect Thames streamer and mid Kent streamer and others affecting elsewhere. And when they get going, on a strong wind, expect those to go further inland. 

It really is an exciting few days coming up.  

[SLEETY]

Just now, kold weather said:

Not really mate, just saying it how the models are at the moment. No BS here regarding how this will go and I've said plenty of times already anyone who has any certainty is talking out of their rear , and thats either direction (either snow or not!)

Not saying there isn't going to be snow, just there maybe relatively less in some locations. Which is perfectly normal, can't all jackpot afterall!

My next post will be one you'll like anyway I suspect! (ps, I've got relatives in Littlehampton, and so I visited Worthing back in the summer, had a nice trip on the ferris wheel there!)

Lol its a bit overpriced prefer View from the Downs. 

I hope everyone sees some decent snow in our region Good luck everyone

[Dbarb]

Hopefully we are the jackpot in Essex this time around and not just at the extreme coast like in 2018 which didnt give much snow at all here in mid Essex. Reckon we will see scenes like my profile picture