South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, HammerJack said:

Are you excited by any chance

. Nah....

[lassie23]

Just now, Marie said:

Ha ha , I’m 44 and I work in a special needs school with extremely clinically vulnerable kids

I thought you had been using nivea Q10 cream  lol

[Captain Shortwave]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Time for a blast from the past. I'm sure many of you have heard me talk about the 1-2nd December 2010 event and how I'm getting real flashbacks of that set-up.

Here is the 00z November 30th 2010 GFS run. Note this is the same timeframe out to the event as this chart was:

Note the precip shield over Kent and extending through to Sussex.

This area led to an early warning of about 2-5cms for Sussex, with higher totals for Kent forecasted.

In reality, that whole area ended up about 100 miles west and about 50 miles further north. This led to large snowfalls further west and also further north.

This ended up giving large snow amounts even further west. For example Kenley ended up with 37cms of snow level. I'd have expected maybe 1-2cms in Chichester based on that run. Ended up with about 20cms...

So thats why we need to keep a close eye on this set-up, and not to assume the models are 100% accurate, even at this stage. There is (as we also saw last weekend) significant movement still possible at this stage.

 

I remember that night. I was in Southampton at university and the snow started whilst I was down the pub. It started mid evening and by the time we left there was already a few inches of snow on the ground. By the morning there was around 7 inches of snow, probably the most I have witness during my lifetime. Pointlessly trudged up to the academic lab I was working in, got 90% of the way through setting up the next stage of the chemical synthesis I was working on and then everyone got sent home. That snow stuck around until I returned to East Anglia for Christmas.

[Eagle Eye]

My teeacher signed off by saying that there might be some snow this weekend, it's beggining to get onto the news.

[Marie]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Have you got any superpowers yet??

Must be a weight off your mind having had it done.

Waiting for the super powers to kick in yes it’s a relief , second jab in April booked

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

quite a big movement south east on the Icon

Yep I just noticed that, the 12z ICON looks quite close to what the Met office warning shows.

Still would be some snow as the front clears to the south, especially on the backside of it, but beyond that it doesn't have quite so much further west for sure.

HOWEVER, the ICON is shocking at picking up inland convection, so there could  be plenty of showers packing in on Sunday which it won't show.

[80sWeather]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Have we gone beyond the tights up zone, is this actually going to happen?

Not been wearing any tights so not sure tbh

[Tim Bland]

Icon further east, not great for west of region...

[BarnetBlizzard]

Just now, kold weather said:

Yep I just noticed that, the 12z ICON looks quite close to what the Met office warning shows.

Still would be some snow as the front clears to the south, especially on the backside of it, but beyond that it doesn't have quite so much further west for sure.

HOWEVER, the ICON is shocking at picking up inland convection, so there could  be plenty of showers packing in on Sunday which it won't show.

yeah to be honest, the Icon keeps moving west and east from each run. lets see what the other 12z show

[FetchCB]

1 hour ago, danm said:

It was indeed:

The wrong type of snow - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

"The wrong type of snow" or "the wrong kind of snow" is a phrase coined by the British media in 1991 after severe weather caused disruption to many of British Rail's services. A British Rail press release implied that management and its engineering staff were unaware of different types of snow. Henceforth in the United Kingdom, the phrase became a byword for euphemistic and pointless excuses.[1]

 

The phrase originated in an interview conducted by James Naughtie on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme on 11 February 1991. British Rail's Director of Operations, Terry Worrall, was asked to comment on the adverse effects of the unusually heavy 1991 snowfall on railway services that winter. Worrall explained that "we are having particular problems with the type of snow, which is rare in the UK". Naughtie replied "Oh, I see, it was the wrong kind of snow," to which Worrall replied, "No, it was a different kind of snow". The exchange prompted a headline in the London Evening Standard saying "British Rail blames the wrong type of snow" which was swiftly taken up by the media and other papers.[2]

The cold snap had been forecast and British Rail had claimed to be ready for the coming snow. However, the snow was unusually soft and powdery and too deep to be cleared by snowploughs – it needed snowblowers. The snow found its way into electrical systems and caused short circuits and traction motor damage in trains.[3] For traction motors with integral cooling fans and air intakes pointing downwards – the type that is still common on British electric multiple units – the problem was made worse as the air intakes sucked up the loose snow. Meanwhile, the snow also became packed into sliding door mechanisms and into points, causing them to fail.[3][4] In addition, low temperatures resulted in problems with electric current collection from the third rail.

Many electric services had to be replaced by diesel haulage, and emergency timetables were introduced. Long delays were commonplace – up to eight hours in some cases. The disruption lasted over a week.[3]

remember this well. Travelling from Camberley to London but because of the long drag from camberley to bagshot had to be diverted via Aldershot except 5 mins the train went dead. Snow had gotten into the electrics and shorted the electricals

[hurricane-anna]

Hello all, really starting to get worried for us here in peterborough,think we might be just a bit too far north and west shouldn't be down thou as had a couple of cms 2 weeks ago.. just looks like such a good set up to be missing out on.. oh well fingers crossed something changes for us here, but wow to everyone else in the area, about time the south east and east Anglia were the area to get buried . had a look in the MAD thread earlier and the way some in the Midlands were complaining about 'us' getting the snow and how bad it was that it wouldn't reach them had me so so close to giving them a mouthful Haha I mean think of how lucky theyve all been for some time now... so so glad I try to stay outta there, I mean hey it hasnt even snowed yet and they're looking for the breakdown words fail me they really do... hope everyone is keeping well, and good luck to all in the coming days, some of you are gonna get totally buried xx

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, 80sWeather said:

Not been wearing any tights so not sure tbh

I wasn't sure if you could say tits lol, oh you can

Edited February 5, 2021 by lassie23

[Snowonder]

2 minutes ago, Marie said:

Waiting for the super powers to kick in yes it’s a relief , second jab in April booked

Also work in a SEN school and had a jab on Wednesday. Second one in April. All good so far. 

Looking forward to some snow on Sunday/Monday. But may not get as much as first thought. 

[danm]

 

[kold weather]

Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:

yeah to be honest, the Icon keeps moving west and east from each run. lets see what the other 12z show

Yes ICON has been really inconsistent with this band, though much of the difference comes from how it keeps handling the western extent differently.

Beyond Sunday afternoon I'd ignore the ICON precip maops, they are going to be next to useless as the ICON doesn't ever show inland convection in winter for some reason. It seems to be a weird issue with the model that I've not yet figured out!

[classylady]

Hi all you lovely people! Am I allowed to be a little excited being right down here on the coast?  Sledge is now to the front of the shed and have been to Tesco this morning just in case my usual Tuesday shopping day will be a snow day instead!! Now waiting in anticipation.  Just love it when this thread comes alive and looking forward to all the winter wonderland photos! X

[Eagle Eye]

16 minutes ago, Marie said:

Ok ,covid vaccine done which I’m really pleased about now to chill out for the weekend with a few drinkies and watch the snow fall on Sunday sledges at the ready guys 

You able to fly yet?

[80sWeather]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I wasn't sure if you could say tits lol, oh you can

well I suppose blue tits are acceptable 

[Marie]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Squad said:

You able to fly yet?

Let you know later after a couple of drinkies

[lassie23]

Just now, 80sWeather said:

well I suppose blue tits are acceptable 

 blue tit weather coming up for sure lol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks increasingly like game set match to the East now

[kold weather]

Ouch ARPEGE 12z is rough:

Thats 11am Sunday btw!!

After that we end up in a streamer setting:

Somewhat worrying that both the ICON/ARPEGE have significantly shifted eastwards for Sunday, though I think it won't make too much practical difference for eastern parts and places exposed to streamers.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[lassie23]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks increasingly like game set match to the East now

They are in an amber warning, that is like proper blizzards

[saintkip]

Nuts it’s all going east, maybe this will help the showers get going?

[Ols500]

50 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Here in NE Surrey I expect patchy sleet and rain at my level (75m) and wet snow on the Downs, Leith Hill, etc.  After this week's very mild weather the ground is just too warm and wet (especially with rain preceding any sleet and snow) to accept settling snow at first and even when it does start to settle there won't be enough of it to produce interest (we're out of the firing line of any possible streamers anyway).  I've been out all day putting up a wire fence along our hedges (to keep our dog in) and it was hot work in the strong sun and mild air.

I'll have to content myself with the pleasant fall we had on 24 -26 January here.

I will be extremely disappointed if that is true...