South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Mr_Pessimistic]

12z Icon shows ppn in about the same location as 12z ukv, so not over just yet. But I fear it will be by this time tomorrow, a south east correction is inevitable!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Snowman31 said:

Is that a change east or west from it's earlier run? 

Looks poor for the West.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here is 12z UKV , Euro 4 out soon I think 

What's the darker dark pink mean. As I've no scale.

Edited February 5, 2021 by alexisj9

[kold weather]

ICON places the low pressure a good deal SE on the 12z, as does the ARPEGE.

This does allow a swifter movement towards true ENE winds away from NE that they were previously showing. Should this happen it may push the showers further inland during Sunday (especially later on Sunday) as well as obviously make a Thames streamer kick up rather than a mid Kent streamer on Sunday.

So whilst it is worse for the west of the region for Sunday morning, it may end up being made up for by a deeper penetration of snow showers, especially downstream from the Thames.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[snowspotter]

4 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

12z Icon shows ppn in about the same location as 12z ukv, so not over just yet. But I fear it will be by this time tomorrow, a south east correction is inevitable!

is that the Mr pessimistic view . Hopefully not the result 

[tight isobar]

I Draw a line in your minds eye ? direct from the southern coastal point guide up to say reading then angle a mental looped line to the wash@east anglia... that whole zone WILL see snow of some descript...  @most certainly.. away from the now highly likely battered (soon to be) amber area... the jury is out .. and substantial accumulation (within area mentioned-the loop line ) is also a reasonable possibility....and I certainly will not be posting ANY precipitation charts until tomorrow... @a pointless task!!!!

Edited February 5, 2021 by tight isobar

[snowspotter]

Right GFS a nudge NW if you please ! 

[Mr_Pessimistic]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ICON places the low pressure a good deal SE on the 12z, as does the ARPEGE.

This does allow a swifter movement towards true ENE winds away from NE that they were previously showing. Should this happen it may push the showers further inland during Sunday (especially later on Sunday) as well as obviously make a Thames streamer kick up rather than a mid Kent streamer on Sunday.

So whilst it is worse for the west of the region for Sunday morning, it may end up being made up for by a deeper penetration of snow showers, especially downstream from the Thames.

Meaning that Norfolk and Suffolk after being predicted to have the most snow all week (yet again), will actually end up with absolutely nothing as we will be in the snowless zone between the two areas of ppn, yet again! If that happens, I will personally KILL the weather.

[yamkin]

BREAKING NEWS: Yamkin has cut the grass in his back garden and now ready for the snow onslaught from Sunday. Bring it on  

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Throw away all your sledges unless you live in eastern areas

. Please

[lawrenk]

10 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

12z Icon shows ppn in about the same location as 12z ukv, so not over just yet. But I fear it will be by this time tomorrow, a south east correction is inevitable!

Had a good week, Mr Pessimistic?

[lassie23]

Thinking of driving to Thetford forest and camping in there through the cold spell lol

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, Southender said:

It’s @lottiekent fault. She’s actually got hers out the garage

Shhh...if we pretend it's still in the garage it'll be ok 

[Downpour]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

. Please

There's no doubt about it, this afternoon's models have been a downgrade for our region. 

 

Much of the precipitation shunted east and wasted by falling into the North Sea.

 

Not a great turn of events. 

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, lottiekent said:

Shhh...if we pretend it's still in the garage it'll be ok 

I just blamed Lassie but it’s actually you!!!! Your fault lol 

[Captain Shortwave]

Typically after that the Arpege actually takes the following low through the channel.

That brings snow to southern counties. Flurries on eastern coasts of EA by then. For those across Cambs/Beds/Northamps a wash streamer sets up nicely but the wind direction needs to be more north easterly to really benefit us. Well during the summer the wind loved coming from the north east... can it actually do it when it would be of benefit?

[danm]

GFS still looking good for many of us:

[Ice Day]

GFS is great for Sunday morning for most of the region

 

Plenty cold enough

  

[kold weather]

Based on the 12z ICON right now, areas to look for streamers, :

1 Sunday daytime - maybe Thames streamer favoured areas usual NW/ Kent and far S.Essex, S.London and through E.Surrey and out through W.Sussex. May also have a Kent streamer as well as there is a turn towards NE further east in the flow

2: Sunday night - Pretty similar to above, maybe a shift slightly east in the main zone.

3: Monday - Shift towards more of a true ENE. Any Thames streamer that sets up would shift further west towards SW London, C/W Surrey and through Hampshire.

Its worth noting its possible no streamer forms at all, they can be a little unpredictable, and so it may well all come down to timings and some may miss out if there is no streamer during the window of time where the winds are optimal.

That will be a total nowcast, as even the high resolution models struggle with this.

[Eagle Eye]

Anybody noticed it's been colder than the models expected so who knows there could be more snow so that rain expected in Kent in the Afternoon On Sunday might end up being sleet or maybe even snow.

[lassie23]

It won't be the first time a blizzard ends up as a flurry from an easterly

[BarnetBlizzard]

Yep, GFS 12z still looks good.  Something tells me we aren't going to know what's going to happen until its on the radar

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, yamkin said:

BREAKING NEWS: Yamkin has cut the grass in his back garden and now ready for the snow onslaught from Sunday. Bring it on  

Cut the grass!?!...if I did that on my back lawn the rain we've had the lawnmower would go under and me!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFS is great for Sunday morning for most of the region

 

Plenty cold enough

  

The whole thing needs to be a 100 miles West to benefit more counties. It’ll just be very light precipitation in the West otherwise!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Lovely nose of -10 850s on that GFS chart through the region.

That will certainly get a streamer going! I am thinking an Feb 09 repeat - that only lasted 9 hours as well!

No need for any pessimism in this thread. Some would think we were in the isles of scilly!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Radiating Dendrite