Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[feb1991blizzard]

INSANE GEFS ALERT!!!

2 thirds, maybe 3 quarters below -5c, a third below -10c, very low spread for well after T300

Edited February 7, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

INSANE GEFS ALERT!!!

When I saw them I thought of you 1st.

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem at day 9! Look at that cold pool coming straight at us

 

GEM continues to be the one to watch. Very interesting. 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ruddy nora, that would make our current spell look like a fart in a tin can.

Strong GH signal in the GEFS

Edited February 7, 2021 by CreweCold

[Griff]

Ecm vs gem 144

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z showing snow for the west and Scotland 

Only hints of milder weather by next Saturday is in the far west

[Battleground Snow]

Cold marching back west again at 192.

 

[That ECM]

According to ecm -5 never leaves se before the colder air comes back

[Griff]

Steady evolution, no issue with the trend this morning... Very different to a week ago waiting for ecm to get on board. It does seem to be 24/48 hours behind the gem... 

(Generally, continues to favour colder air over Europe inching westward towards us) 

 

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Steady evolution, no issue with the trend this morning... Very different to a week ago waiting for ecm to get on board. It does seem to be 24/48 hours behind the gem... 

(Generally, continues to favour colder air over Europe inching westward towards us) 

 

I might be talking nonsense, gem 192

[Griff]

Gem is preferred at 216 but happy with how the ECM is evolving 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Steady evolution, no issue with the trend this morning... Very different to a week ago waiting for ecm to get on board. It does seem to be 24/48 hours behind the gem... 

(Generally, continues to favour colder air over Europe inching westward towards us) 

 

It does appear to be slightly moving towards the gem, 00z v 12z run at 240. Small improvement.

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gem is preferred at 216 but happy with how the ECM is evolving 

Depending on if the high is east or west will effect the 850’s as it goes north between t168 and t240. Not really important at the moment. More important is that they are all on a similar page. The gefs support is there. All good as a trend.

[nick sussex]

The trend for blocking to re-establish is growing this morning .

The signal is  to take the block eventually further nw , as that happens you could get a narrower band of deeper cold running across more especially southern areas but for the moment the main first deep cold pool looks to miss to the se unless that is the UKMO is onto something . This continues to have the deeper cold further north with the main area of heights better aligned to the ne but the ECM and GFS aren’t interested in that solution.

The odds therefore are more favoured for a second attempt when a shortwave could track from the ne and with it another pool of deeper cold.

So most likely .

Remaining cold for most of the UK for the foreseeable future , deeper upper  cold relaxes but surface flow from mainland Europe keeps cold at ground level . First main deeper cold pool misses to the se , a chance of some of that though  heading along the southern flank of the high as it edges nw later .

Another attempt at deeper cold around day  ten from the ne .

Less likely .

The UKMO trend  if that develops further , upstream pattern sharpens up , the heights to the ne edge further sw   at day 7 , shortwave ejected se from the upstream troughing as that elongates and eventually shears apart , deeper cold starts advancing sw towards the UK day 8.

Edited February 7, 2021 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

I take it, the models are sponsoring our Olympic snowboarders?       

[mulzy]

Configurationally the mean eps days 12 onward look great - high heights to the north, low heights to the south. 

[Griff]

Courtesy of @MattHugo

[bluearmy]

Day 6 around Svalbard .Compare  and contrast ec with Ukmo and gem .... if ec is wrong then we likely end up with the gem. If ec is right then it’s a cold high close by

Edited February 7, 2021 by bluearmy

[sheikhy]

Great runs this morning!!ice days galore and snow between now and thursday!!good to see the extension of cold continue!!

[Captain Shortwave]

  

 

Clear that there is a larger clustering of cold solutions this morning. We see the surface high placed further north. Now over Scandinavia towards Scotland, instead of Northern Europe (Northern Germany/Poland). Again only small adjustments could send severe cold our way like the GEM.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[ICE COLD]

-19 touching the south east at day 10 . WTF is going on . 

[sheikhy]

Improvement on the 00z ecm mean!!high more cut off and slightly further north!!could be looking at a crazy set of 12zs!!

[Chesil View]

All models look to keep it cold at the surface for the foreseeable apart maybe from the far west. Longer term GEM and GFS and it's ensembles says if you think it's cold now just wait.

GFS 00z pert 22 and GEM 00z pert 11 are a particular joy to behold.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Tim Bland]

Holey shmokes