Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

6z continuing the theme of troughing lifting out quickly to be followed by perhaps something more traditional, have to say it has been a lovely June up here at least.

Yes signs we may revert to a more typical summer base state I.e. westerly after a lengthy period where westerlies have been absent. Hence the slow movement of the trough..

All very normal service as we move deeper into July. Expecting the NW-SE divide to cement into traditional state. NW wetter and cloudier, rather than drier and sunnier.

Temperatures look very average. Rather subdued for July overall.

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

May be worth looking at the corresponding forecast discussion that the noaa produce to see if model divergence exists. Would appreciate the link myself.

The prognostic discussion is on the same link as the 6-10 day 500 anomaly I regularly post, top rhs side of the link when you open it. Done Mon-Fri, not sure it would help for the UK area mind you as their discussion is obviously centred around N America weather and modelling.

[mb018538]

Next Tuesday - welcome to October 

[Methuselah]

T+279: American Express? That'll do nicely!       

[mb018538]

A bit more ridging once the first week of July is done?

[Downpour]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Next Tuesday - welcome to October 

No pain, no gain! 
 

Better as we approach the weekend in the south east!

[Frosty.]

I just love it when my predictions come true!... ..whoa there cowboy..it hasn’t happened yet..let’s have some blue sky at least darn it!  

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

I'm rooting for the Spanish Armada!        

[Singularity]

Further progress from the 12z GFS and UKMO runs with the trough lifting out quicker - especially in the latter run.

Becoming generally dry and warmer than average for much of England by next weekend - would be good timing!

Not a done deal yet of course. Signal-driven guidance always has uncertainty of timing.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Singularity
Generally is Get Skyline according to my phone.

[Frosty.]

My mission is to bring hope ..I will leave certain others to bring despair! ...anyway, here’s my cherry picked sample from the GEFS 12z! ...notice though that the mean does improve!..sure it’s wax and wane as I’ve been saying, the signals are mixed for sure but I’m certainly not about to write off July on July 1st damn it!!!!!!!  

 

[Frosty.]

Ok am I going to have to be the first to say it?...the ECM 12z operational does somewhat improve beyond the half way point towards something more acceptable than the first half? ...quite diplomatic there I think!  

 

[Methuselah]

Well, last night I had a nightmare about being shot-at by bloodthirsty Nazis . . . at least, tonight, I can have pleasanter dreams about the GEFS ensembles!

    

My only concern, if you want to call it that, is that the operational run is now firmly on the warm side of the mean. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

Clear trend emerging now on the EC mean of the jet pushed north.

Troughing looks brief.

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by northwestsnow

[ANYWEATHER]

The secondary low on Monday at T+96 has been picked up on both gfs and ecm....interesting shortwave , small but nasty , let's see tomorrow how this pans out....! 

[mushymanrob]

I dont get it..... theres no strong azores high on these charts despite the ops saying there will be... the only way i can see the atlantic low exiting northwards/lifting out, is the it happens rapidly so wont show on these mean charts.

I must admit that im struggling to make sense of these seemingly contradictory charts..

Heres the latest anoms..

 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Ok am I going to have to be the first to say it?...the ECM 12z operational does somewhat improve beyond the half way point towards something more acceptable than the first half? ...quite diplomatic there I think!  

 

This has all the hall marks of the models sniffing out a new pattern to me, Karl.  All models promote the Azores ridge, but some of the evolutions don’t look quite right to me, models tentatively latching on.  ECM 12z T240 is sort of what I mean:

On a quick look, it could be a classic summer chart with Azores ridge.  But it is all wrong!  The low to the SE UK is one thing, but on the way from the Azores to here, the two 1025 hPa features are lows not highs.  

Given the expected AAM rise, I expect we will see more realistic evolutions of Azores ridging in subsequent runs, maybe even on the 0z.  But for now, this is while the coffee is only partially being smelt in my view.  

I am not suggesting there isn’t going to be a massive improvement, I think there will be, it is just the models haven’t got a proper handle on it yet!!

Edited July 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I don't think its that far wrong Mike,signs of an improvement would very much fit in with the Exter updates,which talk of lots of settled and at times very warm conditions..im not sure what they are being influenced by...but let's just say that I'm influenced by them

Was the NOAA charts fully onboard with this trough next week! I'm not sure it was...but perhaps Mushy or JH could clear that up a little better! At this stage it looks like the ops may have been closer to the mark! But again I will stand corrected! 

A confident update from Singularity regarding an improving picture come late next week, hopefully Tamara will add a little weight to that before much longer.

The mean looks good,with much stronger ridging becoming evident the further we go through the run...Good early signs..let's make this a Summer to remember starting with a big result on Saturday..its a petty we couldn't all have a live Skype for the event...and when the half time footy analysis comes on we could do a latest model output update

Thanks to everyone who post on here,whatever there styles,I may annoy you at times,but I mean no offence

[Mike Poole]

Most promising ECM mean for ages on the 12z at T240:

Northerly tracking jet, and ridging in from the Azores.  And, by the way, the June Contingency Planners forecast is out and is suggesting higher probability of warm and dry….we are seeing just, tentatively, the start of this in the op models today, I think. And a good signal from the ensembles.  I’m sure the anomalies will follow suit!

Edited July 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I don't think its that far wrong Mike,signs of an improvement would very much fit in with the Exter updates,which talk of lots of settled and at times very warm conditions..im not sure what they are being influenced by...but let's just say that I'm influenced by them

Was the NOAA charts fully onboard with this trough next week! I'm not sure it was...but perhaps Mushy or JH could clear that up a little better! At this stage it looks like the ops may have been closer to the mark! But again I will stand corrected! 

A confident update from Singularity regarding an improving picture come late next week, hopefully Tamara will add a little weight to that before much longer.

The mean looks good,with much stronger ridging becoming evident the further we go through the run...Good early signs..let's make this a Summer to remember starting with a big result on Saturday..its a petty we couldn't all have a live Skype for the event...and when the half time footy analysis comes on we could do a latest model output update

Thanks to everyone who post on here,whatever there styles,I may annoy you at times,but I mean no offence

The anomalies have brought in thr atlantic trough slowly, not as rapid and deep as previous op runs have predicted. 

Imho they appear to have stalled and filled the low.

But there is no strong azores ridge on those charts, and they maintain higher pressure to our north. 

There really is a huge difference. 

[Singularity]

Those anomaly charts show higher anomalies to the north of the UK, which is not the same as saying the high will be focused there.

In fact, with neutral anomalies to the south, that corresponds to the Azores High expanding further north and east than usual.

The process does look a little slower in the NOAA take but the trend faster only really began today so it may be a case of waiting for more supporting runs to provide confidence.

[Mike Poole]

I reckon the JMA has it right today, T192, T264:

I think it is consistent with the rise in  AAM, here CFS take is that the rise comes quickly:

Prediction, 12z tomorrow, every model has high pressure nosing in by T192!

 

[Sky Full]

GFS 0Z has this evolution between the 10th and 15th July….(+192h - +312h):

500s.                              850s

  
 

Still too many pesky lows floating around but not directly over the UK and this is perhaps a much better picture for mid-July than was being suggested yesterday.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Sky Full

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Singularity said:

Those anomaly charts show higher anomalies to the north of the UK, which is not the same as saying the high will be focused there.

In fact, with neutral anomalies to the south, that corresponds to the Azores High expanding further north and east than usual.

The process does look a little slower in the NOAA take but the trend faster only really began today so it may be a case of waiting for more supporting runs to provide confidence.

how is that reconciled though, to a moderate westerly flow south of the UK, the flow lines do not indicate much of a pressure rise North of the Azores let alone Eastward...

[mb018538]

Things starting to look better on the GFS/UKMO in about a weeks time, with low pressure finally lifting away by about Thursday/Friday next week.

[Methuselah]

Once the 'troughing' sorts itself out, this morning's 00Z looks rather nice:

    

    

    

At this rate, all will become clear. In the run-up to Christmas!