Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You’re right, there’s signs of hope from the Azores later in the ECM 12z ensemble mean!  

 

desperate times if we’re hoping for an Azores incursion 10+ days out

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

desperate times if we’re hoping for an Azores incursion 10+ days out

Hardly desperate, there’s still 66 percent of summer left!..it’s just that it so happens that the ECM / GEFS mean improve in that range!...one to watch, sometimes these longer term signals eventually bear fruit!  

[Sweatyman]

Well! Best get the sledges out soon..

[Allseasons-Si]

Can i just sat that this trough out west has little influence as we get closer the time,...it just keeps on getting pushed back...

i have seen it numerous times where the models push this trough through only for it to stall

i am not saying it will but my hunch is it won't.remember that the models over estimate these scenario's   

one to watch. 

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can i just sat that this trough out west has little influence as we get closer the time,...it just keeps on getting pushed back...

i have seen it numerous times where the models push this trough through only for it to stall

i am not saying it will but my hunch is it won't.remember that the models over estimate these scenario's   

one to watch. 

Trouble is heights are forecast to rise to the NW as well. Pressure gradient forcing boxes the trough in our direction it has nowhere else to go.. we are already seeing height rises more to the NW than NE right now.. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by damianslaw

[mb018538]

Some car crash runs this morning….especially the GFS.

Low arrives Monday next week….

….and the same low is still over us 6 days later:

 

Just dreadful. Think we need to buckle in for an unsettled spell here, we aren’t escaping this one it would seem! 

[LetItSnow!]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Some car crash runs this morning….especially the GFS.

Low arrives Monday next week….

….and the same low is still over us 6 days later:

 

Just dreadful. Think we need to buckle in for an unsettled spell here, we aren’t escaping this one it would seem! 

Was thinking this a few days ago when everyone was (seemingly) raving over a warm & dry first ten days to July... I just had this gut feeling that the blocking would force low pressures over and to the south of the UK, despite not showing it, it just made sense. The past month has been giving me serious 2007 vibes, and while I have no proof the rest of the summer will go that way, I do think it's an option. Blocking with lows forced south can be a hard pattern to break out of, though with what looks to be quite hot weather to our south I would argue that that's not so much the case as in other years. I leave for a two week holiday at the moment & it's looking like the weather could be decidely wet and cloudy. Oh, well!

[Guest]

 

43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Some car crash runs this morning….especially the GFS.

Low arrives Monday next week….

….and the same low is still over us 6 days later:

 

Just dreadful. Think we need to buckle in for an unsettled spell here, we aren’t escaping this one it would seem! 

It’s ok, the anomalies don’t agree, it won’t happen  

UKMO at Day 6 - One of the worst summer charts you can get

 

GEM at day 10, it’s an absolute howler, the whole run is shocking from day 4.

 

At least 2007 and 2012 had decent springs…..

Edited June 30, 2021 by Alderc

[mb018538]

Just to air my continued frustration with the BBC extended forecasts again...
 

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

July is just around the corner - but is there any summer-like warmth and sunshine on the way? Nick Miller has the forecast.

The one from last night again shows the ECM 00z op run as their day 7-10 chart, which had the high pressure building in (even though it was an outlier and none of the other model runs showed this). Why don't they think before they produce these? At least the MetO extended forecasts on YouTube etc speak about uncertainty and show other outcomes.

[mb018538]

UKMO 168 hour chart is no better either. The UK green blob magnet cranked up to the max.

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEFS 0z mean improves which is reflected by some very nice perturbations...we may have to roll with the punches next week as it looks more unsettled and cooler but I’m hopeful that July will then become much more summery towards mid month...glass half full! ? 

[sheikhy]

Aint posted a real downbeat post for ages but after viewing the models this morning  im really concerned!!this is as bad as it gets for summer to be fair!!got ecm to come out still but not holding much hope!!make the most of the warmth and humidity till sunday!!!

[Djdazzle]

Well at least it can’t get worse than this. The 12z will be better, only for that reason.

These charts make 2007 look pleasant.

[northwestsnow]

Did I accidentally click the moans thread?

Doom mongers like moths to a flame

Anyway , EC det showing a brief Atlantic incursion before HP takes over.

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Well this is interesting, The NOAA Anomaly charts remain steadfast, they are not expcting that strong high to our northeast to disappear / give way to the Atlantic trough

This really is shaping up to be a classic Anomaly/op battle ....

 

Sorry, im not buying the ops rapid breakdown and return of the atlantic low.

High pressure of that size and strength doesnt often get shunted aside by any Atlantic trough. The ops also all suggest an Azoreshigh helping shunt the trough over the UK. The anomalies do not have that feature.

So im backing the anomalies for those reasons and the trough remains to our near West

[mb018538]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Did I accidentally click the moans thread?

Doom mongers like moths to a flame

Anyway , EC det showing a brief Atlantic incursion before HP takes over.

Sadly that ECM 00z run was wildly off the mark again this morning....not sure what's been up with it lately. Very erratic.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry, im not buying the ops rapid breakdown and return of the atlantic low.

High pressure of that size and strength doesnt often get shunted aside by any Atlantic trough. The ops also all suggest an Azoreshigh helping shunt the trough over the UK. The anomalies do not have that feature.

So im backing the anomalies for those reasons and the trough remains to our near West

I am mostly in agreement there mushy. There is an Atlantic flow beneath the blocking effect though. Just how that will play out with the block is not easy to see. The NOAA 8-14, as it often does, smooths the trough/ridge pattern out to give a broadly westerly flow into a rounded trough with its axis looking to be over/very slightly east of the UK. Very interesting to see what the upper air pattern is in the 6-14 day period and even more so what the UK surface weather will be. 

[sheikhy]

44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadly that ECM 00z run was wildly off the mark again this morning....not sure what's been up with it lately. Very erratic.

Oh just wait till the winter if you think ecm frustrating everyone now!!!!its gona be crazy in this thread!!!ecm better buckle up its ideas by then!!!

[Methuselah]

Well, according to this morning's GEFSs, the mean is rather more encouraging than the operational run: 

     

Though the control disagrees, so nothing's nailed on!

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Did I accidentally click the moans thread?

Doom mongers like moths to a flame

Anyway , EC det showing a brief Atlantic incursion before HP takes over.

It really is depressing reading in here with a couple of regular culprits. We should have been experiencing flooding over the last few days according to these people with biblical amounts of rain- surprise, surprise it hasn't happened. 

I'm very much an amateur model watcher myself and I would never claim to know more than the Met Office for example (and obviously don't have access to the level of data they have either) but there are a few in here who think they know better.

I'm expecting this trough to end up stalling to our west rather than simply ploughing through as the ops are showing. It's fair to say the ops should not be trusted more than about 3 days out at the moment.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It really is depressing reading in here with a couple of regular culprits. We should have been experiencing flooding over the last few days according to these people with biblical amounts of rain- surprise, surprise it hasn't happened. 

I'm very much an amateur model watcher myself and I would never claim to know more than the Met Office for example (and obviously don't have access to the level of data they have either) but there are a few in here who think they know better.

I'm expecting this trough to end up stalling to our west rather than simply ploughing through as the ops are showing. It's fair to say the ops should not be trusted more than about 3 days out at the moment.

Sort of disagree as parts of the south have had heavy rain exactly as forecast. Many places south of the M4 have had 100-180% of the June LTA’s in just the last 10-12days. Clearly and unusually the north has faired almost extraordinarily better than parts down here. 

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It really is depressing reading in here with a couple of regular culprits. We should have been experiencing flooding over the last few days according to these people with biblical amounts of rain- surprise, surprise it hasn't happened. 

I'm very much an amateur model watcher myself and I would never claim to know more than the Met Office for example (and obviously don't have access to the level of data they have either) but there are a few in here who think they know better.

I'm expecting this trough to end up stalling to our west rather than simply ploughing through as the ops are showing. It's fair to say the ops should not be trusted more than about 3 days out at the moment.

Sorry, but I can’t agree there…I know it’s been a decent month up north, but it hasn’t down south. Over 200% rainfall, and most of that in a fortnight.

 

Chard flooding: People rescued and homes damaged

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Floodwater gushes into properties in and around Chard, Somerset, following heavy rainfall.

 

Also if those doesn’t count as biblical rain, then I don’t know what does…

[Eagle Eye]

ECMWF at 192 hrs

VS GFS

Shows the uncertainty in these models. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 hours ago, Alderc said:

desperate times if we’re hoping for an Azores incursion 10+ days out

 

The mean still shows an improvement,the forecast I've got for next week is rather warm,with sunshine and showers...And we still have Exeter talking about a largely fine 2nd half of July with hot spells probable!

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Mapantz
Removed unnecessary comment

[mb018538]

Not a bad 6z so far, sunshine and heavy showers for Monday. 12-17c should feel quite nice if you catch some sun though.