Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Penrith Snow]

Looking at this mornings ECM I am glad i didn't pay £2000 for a week in a caravan in Cornwall. 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

None of the ECM clusters are looking overly settled at day 8-10


 

Yes it does look like the Atlantic may pay us a visit ...

The question,  is it a brief visit , or something more protracted.

Edited June 28, 2021 by northwestsnow

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Those type of charts aren’t to be trusted at the 10-14 day range 

I don't think they can be trusted past 5 days at the moment. the model output is really struggling.

Guna be a Greenland scorcher in 10 days.  

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Also to note - most models wildly over exaggerated with the rainfall in my area. The SW has clearly taken a battering which was forecast, but a lot of forecasts for here were 50mm plus over the previous days....we've had a little overnight rain, with not too much more expected now:


 

This is what i been mentioning over the oast 2 days like a broken record lol!!!the rainfall has been no where near as much and its meant to get drier from tomorrow!!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Still question marks for week 2, the final insult for our current shallow low is for the circulation to remain close enough to the U.K. to interact with the incoming system from the Atlantic and allow the jet stream to push through the UK. It wouldn’t take too much of an eastward shift to prevent this from happening and have a more sustainable ridge through the U.K. 

Still this does feel like the cold pool of doom at the moment for southern areas and of course areas in Eastern England are being plagued by low cloud. The north looks decent for a good few days yet.

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes it does look like the Atlantic may pay us a visit ...

The question,  is it a brief visit , or something more protracted.

Looks like these charts are in line with the ECM OP output at the same range. Its has been showing a deluge pattern from +120 as of late (yesterdays output aside). If these charts verify id say enjoy what decent weather is on offer this week because it looks pretty dire beyond that. 

The GEM 00z is in total agreement with the ECM.

 

The GFS still wants to keep the atlantic at bay (for now)

These charts are only 7days out so its going to be interesting to see which scenario plays out (I'm rooting for the GFS)

Edited June 28, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Also to note - most models wildly over exaggerated with the rainfall in my area. The SW has clearly taken a battering which was forecast, but a lot of forecasts for here were 50mm plus over the previous days....we've had a little overnight rain, with not too much more expected now:


 

Not saying I told you so but you and a couple of others were convinced it was going to be a dire weekend with biblical rainfall amounts. Many places in the south pretty much stayed dry in the end. Those precipitation charts are not to be taken as gospel by any means and the Met Office were never on board with the idea of huge amounts of rain.

[Scorcher]

As always some are getting very despondent from one set of model runs- the ECM was showing something very different last night so I'm not going to worry about what it's showing 8 days out.

I must admit though it was slightly deflating to see that this morning when I hoped we might have a further swing to hot conditions.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Looking at this mornings ECM I am glad i didn't pay £2000 for a week in a caravan in Cornwall. 

In all fairness mate consider yourself fortunate...I would want the Hilton on wheels for that kind of money

I'm not gonna sugar coat the output this morning...overall it looks poor,and I've further depressed myself by just checking current conditions around the med,Glorious...even Yakutsk the coldest city in the world is currently 30C. Thick cloud and drizzle here again and tbh its starting to grind my gears a bit now.

I'm a bit concerned about how this next Low Pressure interacts come the Weekend also! Looks like Northern areas remain fine and areas further South end up very unsettled again! Hand on Heart is now telling me it could be towards mid July before a more general settling down occurs,which leaves us a window of a couple of weeks of summery conditions,going on the fact how poor August's have been for quite some time!

The ECM op becomes terrible next week,with the mean being a little less aggressive,but these 10 day means are not covering themselves in any real glory right now.Ive got to be honest I was expecting much better than this up to this point....Hopefully an improvement before much longer,but tick tick!!

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

As always some are getting very despondent from one set of model runs- the ECM was showing something very different last night so I'm not going to worry about what it's showing 8 days out.

I must admit though it was slightly deflating to see that this morning when I hoped we might have a further swing to hot conditions.

Most forecasts from earlier in June appear to have grossly underestimated the fall in global AAM for this part of the month. Bigger fall, and could take a while before it recovers. This in part due to the MJO just stalling in phase 1 and the pacific being void of any convective activity. Tentative signs that towards mid July MJO is starting to move towards the maritimes again, but I wouldn't expect much to cheer about until then.

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z even better than the 00z!!out to 168 hours so far and looks very warm and humid!!maybe even some thundery showers at the weekend!

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z even better than the 00z!!out to 168 hours so far and looks very warm and humid!!maybe even some thundery showers at the weekend!

Still looking to promote that ridge ahead of the Atlantic low. Bit of a lone wolf at the moment though with UKMO/ECM/GEM all saying no to the ridge. Guess we can't totally discount it just yet, but it's unlikely.

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 6z..P24 is a beauty! ...and there’s some good signs elsewhere too!...indeed, later this week there should be a marked improvement generally with increasing amounts of sunshine and respectable temperatures, notice I’ve glossed over the poorer members..tut tut frosty!!! !!
 

 

[damianslaw]

Models moving towards a more trough cyclonic outlook as we move into next week. The current shallow trough feature plaguing the south now is not doing us any favours. Heights to the north look like holding in situ but crucially not ridging sufficiently south to push back the Atlantic trough. It allows for a slight negative NAO pattern with the trough sticking to the UK like glue.. For southern parts this is a very poor outlook given the rain and cloud of the past week or so. For the north the rest of this week looking very good with lots of dry sunny warm conditions, however by the weekend cloydier and eventually showery conditions will move in from the SW. Best place to be central north and NE Scotland closest to the heights. Not often can say that late June/ early July. I note someone mentioned falling AAM a key factor...

[Singularity]

There has been an enormous negative spike to the global sum of mountain torques, which is why AAM has dropped so much. This is the extratropical influence on AAM - but it's not what leads the overall direction of travel. For that, we have to look at the tropics and frictional torques. Those have also been negative but are now heading back toward neutral, a sign that the tropical cycle is ready to move on an start to shift AAM upward.

Despite this, such a big -MT does ease the door open for the scenario that ECM keeps jumping onto and off from, as an Atlantic trough briefly gets shunted in the direction of the UK.

If the cut-off low is still hanging around close enough to our shores, then that low has a shot at moving close enough to interact with it and keep the polar jet across the UK, in which case we'll be having to wait for AAM recovery to lift that trough out and allow the Scandinavian high regime to set up shop (most likely via an Azores high extension then breakaway), some 5-7 days later than was being advertised at longer lead times.

On the other hand, if the cut-off low is far enough east, the door will be shut and the trough is unlikely to make it to us before it stalls out (as the knock-on effects of the huge -MT subside). Without much to move that trough on, a good run of fine, warm weather could result, before the likely destabilisation, possibly via a substantial heat spike akin to what the ECM 12z of yesterday explored.

 

If you'd like a reason to be hopeful, consider what the ECM runs of a few days ago were predicting the cut-off low to get up to this week: Loitering in the Channel until Friday, even into the weekend. Now, that low is set to be clear of us by Wednesday afternoon!

A repeat performance would leave plenty of room for a GFS 06z style 'wall of high pressure' outcome.

 

EPS are more or less split down the middle on this, albeit with only a third taking the ridging outcome as far as the GFS 06z.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Singularity
EPS

[Methuselah]

Ah, the GEFS suggest some rather crappy fayre, over here, lasting until Friday. After that? Well, it's better but not exactly great?

     

A troublesome occlusion, somewhere in the North Sea, could be a Pteranodon in the ointment!

[Methuselah]

Could be some plume potential as we approach Day 10; and would be consistent with how recent summers have unfolded? 

    

Better than a poke in the eye with a barbeque skewer?!  

[Guest]

Really poor GEM & UKMO with low pressure moving in the Atlantic. GFS keeps the pressure a little higher however the poor weather down here looks like continuing. Let’s hope the Euro isn’t as desperately poor as it was this morning.

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I bet the Atlantic gets pushed back before we no it. Lol. Don't trust anything past 48hrs. Supposed to be dry all day here today in barnsley and guess what it's raining lol. Ecm is going to be a cracker I can feel it. 

[mb018538]

32 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I bet the Atlantic gets pushed back before we no it. Lol. Don't trust anything past 48hrs. Supposed to be dry all day here today in barnsley and guess what it's raining lol. Ecm is going to be a cracker I can feel it. 

I wouldn’t count on it….it’s very keen on that Atlantic low!

[mb018538]

Got to laugh really. Can’t even get one mildly settled day this week! That bloody trough now wants to sit in the North Sea Friday and Saturday and put a fly in the ointment. By Saturday we have fronts moving in from the Atlantic too.

[mb018538]

53 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I bet the Atlantic gets pushed back before we no it. Lol. Don't trust anything past 48hrs. Supposed to be dry all day here today in barnsley and guess what it's raining lol. Ecm is going to be a cracker I can feel it. 

 

Thre answer is a resounding no. A sight we see all too often in the UK. Everywhere else gets the goods, we take one for the whole of europe with the crap. 

[Guest]

ECM is just a horror show. Summer well and truly on hold. By the time this low is out the way we’ll written off the first tercile of July.

 

Hard to see how the first half of summer scores more than 3 or 4 out of 10 with the current modelling. 4 is being pretty generous I think.

[mb018538]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM is just a horror show. Summer well and truly on hold. By the time this low is out the way we’ll written off the first tercile of July.

 

Hard to see how the first half of summer scores more than 3 or 4 out of 10 with the current modelling. 4 is being pretty generous I think.

Always amazes me how the jet stream is supposedly pushed north in the summer, taking lows up to Iceland. It’s more like they repeatedly plough straight through the uk in autumn and winter, as well as summer

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

The ECM is so laughable , you gotta love that blob of green snot catapulting itself right across the Atlantic only for it to halt bang slap right over the UK next Tuesday and stay there for god knows how long.