Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A very settled outlook hasn’t ever been on the cards really - rather intermittently fine, between more unstable but still warm spells, as high pressure influences unsteadily from the northeast or east. Transient Azores linkups provide the drier interludes.

Equally, a very unsettled one isn’t to be expected either - which makes the ECM 00z about as suspect as it gets!

Yes, this ties in with the Met Office outlook, a SW - NE split. SW parts more exposed to an atlantic infuence as the trough edges in, further north and east, closer to the heights to the NE, drier more settled conditions.  A battle between the atlantic trough and the scandi high, quite an interesting outlook both for heat lovers, and those who like thundery downpours, may see shortlived 'plume' type events as the atlantic trough attempts to nose heights to our NE away. The question is how the azores high interplays with the scandi high, the models suggest tha atlantic trough may elongate on a more negative alignment indicative of a slight negative NAO which would supress its effects, hence no locked in sustained settled outlook.

July could be an often fine warm sunny month punctuated with temporary rainy/thundery incursions which could be very potent as we draw in warmer uppers from the SE from time to time - but nothing exceptionally hot. I'll take that from the 'true summer month'..

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as per usual, a quick wheech through the GFS 00Z reveals that it's nowhere near as catastrophic as some folks want to insist: 

    

    

    

And the GEFS temperature ensembles are nae bad!

   

 

Pete I've read the last couple of pages on the forum and I'm confused! It's a bit like following the Euros commentary....one broadcaster saying this is a poor performance and they need to change there shape,then the other on the radio saying how impressive and solid they look...and I often end up wondering if they are following the same match

All I can say is its wet for many through till Wednesday,away from the North that is! It settles down towards late next week and the Weekend,and that my friend is about as far as i go. Do have a lovely Sunday.

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Pete I've read the last couple of pages on the forum and I'm confused! It's a bit like following the Euros commentary....one broadcaster saying this is a poor performance and they need to change there shape,then the other on the radio saying how impressive and solid they look...and I often end up wondering if they are following the same match

All I can say is its wet for many through till Wednesday,away from the North that is! It settles down towards late next week and the Weekend,and that my friend is about as far as i go. Do have a lovely Sunday.

Quite .. scanning through... to me it’s after the nxt 5 days on the up!..- and no surprise if we end up mid month @july with a monster HP encroachment over large swathes western/eastern Europe... there will always be an- Atlantic incursion rapid- or a little more stubborn.. but the overall outlook looks as July “perhaps being “ THE notable summer month!... we’ll crawl through the coming week.. then- its summer bk on firmly imo

Edited June 27, 2021 by tight isobar

[johnholmes]

48 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres some strange comments regarding the Anomalies, and many doubting their accuracy..

Well the NOAA chart below was issued on the 19th, its the 6-10 day chart so at day 8, today, we are smack bang in the middle of that mean chart. The GFS chart on the right is the current 500mb chart.

Thats just about a complete match, with only a few niggles and minor differences...... Thats why some of us use these charts to guide us to the most likely predicted operational chart, because out of all the daily options and differing patterns, the NOAA are most likely to be nearer the solution.... and as such, then IMHO the current ECM is well off the mark.

 

Indeed some rather odd comments on the anomalies, and I agree with what your post shows. I did much the same from myself about 3 days ago. I have used the anomaly charts as a guide for the expected upper air pattern for many years. The surface of course can be hard to get as correct but your combination is pretty often what is shown especially in the 6-10 day period.

[Methuselah]

And the GFS 06Z is suggestive of warm or hot conditions throughout; it also looks like being broadly within the anomalies' envelope, and in line with the Met Office's most recent missive: 

    

    

    

So, touch wood, some warmth, heat and sunshine, but without the threat of those horrible parched landscapes such as 2018 produced. What's not to like? 

[Frosty.]

Just too add, not really looked at the models apart from the ECM 0z ens mean!!...to busy drinking! ..but the 850’s (uppers) are nae bad in the mid / longer term..hiccup!!!!  

Edited June 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

OMG guys..for sure there’s some absolute filth within the GEFS 6z..I kid you not! ...but, it’s not all crud..phew!!! cheers gang  ? 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe 120 hrs at present, how often is this said! Thereafter uncertainty how the Atlantic trough interacts with the high to the north east.. models will chop and change over next 24-48 hrs in this regard.. we've seen short term developments over the last week or so scupper medium range forecasting. It wasn't long ago models were going with a predominantly dry very warm Wednesday coming, we now have a rather cool NE flow with core of heights migrating further to the NW..

Edited June 27, 2021 by damianslaw

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And the GFS 06Z is suggestive of warm or hot conditions throughout; it also looks like being broadly within the anomalies' envelope, and in line with the Met Office's most recent missive: 

    

    

    

So, touch wood, some warmth, heat and sunshine, but without the threat of those horrible parched landscapes such as 2018 produced. What's not to like? 

Yes the 6z Gfs turns up the heat somewhat from next weekend onwards:

 

Also continuing risk of thundery outbreaks and pretty humid I should think. No need for central heating for a while if this on the money...

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And the GFS 06Z is suggestive of warm or hot conditions throughout; it also looks like being broadly within the anomalies' envelope, and in line with the Met Office's most recent missive: 

    

    

    

So, touch wood, some warmth, heat and sunshine, but without the threat of those horrible parched landscapes such as 2018 produced. What's not to like? 

Yep id agree with that, it is in line broadly with the anomalies ..... but to my eyes, its looking like hot and humid, a greenhouse, tropical, with increasing chances of heavy thundery showers a sweatfest.

[Sweatyman]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Yep id agree with that, it is in line broadly with the anomalies ..... but to my eyes, its looking like hot and humid, a greenhouse, tropical, with increasing chances of heavy thundery showers a sweatfest.

Beautiful just how i like it cos I'm mad

[Frosty.]

I’m not Scottish..but I gotta say, this is nae bad from the 6z op!  ..although, it’s nae as guid as whiskey!  

Edited June 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Well then, were I to choose an adjective suitable for the GEFS ensembles, 'poor' certainly would not it be: 

    

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z T120, has the low clearing the SE, and the potential for better weather over much of the country.  

I think the next couple of weeks might be interspersed settled and unsettled depending on where you are…leading to maybe a more settled spell from the 10th July onwards.  One thing is pretty certain, for me anyway, is no Atlantic dominated weather.  

[Frosty.]

Is not the Atlantic making inroads at T+144 on the Ukmo 12h?...this is not me being negative.. ..just saying it as it is, not wanting to offend anyone..heaven forbid!  

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Is not the Atlantic making inroads at T+144 on the Ukmo 12h?...this is not me being negative.. ..just saying it as it is, not wanting to offend anyone..heaven forbid!  

No, I don’t think so, Karl, there’s a high latitude block there so it can’t.  

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No, I don’t think so, Karl, there’s a high latitude block there so it can’t.  

Jeez that’s a relief Mike, it must have been a dream..like that series of Dallas when Bobby came back..phew!  

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez that’s a relief Mike, it must have been a dream..like that series of Dallas when Bobby came back..phew!  

We’ve not seen proper Atlantic dominated weather for about 9 months now, I’m sure it will return one day, but I’m hopeful not before next Spring!  Fingers crossed for winter .

GFS 12z looking good in later stages, T210:

Where’s that red tongue of heat going?

Edited June 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We’ve not seen proper Atlantic dominated weather for about 9 months now, I’m sure it will return one day, but I’m hopeful not before next Spring!  Fingers crossed for winter .

I completely misread the situation Mike, the Ukmo 12h day 6 doesn’t show any Atlantic inroads..honest guv, my mistake!!..put it down to too much scotch..  

I need to go back to grad school 

[Methuselah]

That's it, blame the Sweaties, why don't you! 

Meanwhile (and I still haven't any those 'washouts that were being touted, a day or so back!) the GFS 12Z looks okay at T+240. But ne'er forget: the Atlantic always fires up, at this time of year. Except when it doesn't! 

     

[Methuselah]

And at T+360:        

[stodge]

Evening all

Had a quick glance at the 12Z output this evening and clear signs of improvement as we move further into July.

Not hot by any means but pleasantly warm and settled as the Azores HP finally builds NE across north-western Europe aided and abetted by signs of a more active Atlantic in far FI.

A long way from a done deal but encouraging signs.

[Frosty.]

Interesting end to the Gem 12z?...about to give birth to a plume a few days later?    

 

Edited June 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

I want to make a prediction about winter.  Just checked I’m not in the covid thread by accident!  

So we have increased sun activity this year compared to the last few, but it is still low:

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM

At the same time we have a sleeping Atlantic, forecast by long range models to continue to be sleeping…and also ECM T96 for example:

And an EQBO on our side, really, what’s not to like at this stage?   So, the prediction is a front loaded winter +,  it starts blocked and then we will see…

Meanwhile in the here and now, ECM rolling, looks more settled and sunny further north, but longer term I would suggest a return to favouring southern areas… 

 

Edited June 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

Looks like, the ec op has jumped to cluster 2 (from 3) which will be a good ending 

Edited June 27, 2021 by bluearmy