Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[northwestsnow]

31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not posted for a while - couldn’t find anything positive to say re summer sunshine  ….. 

the shallow upper trough certainly seems to be honed in on nw Europe and certainly the s of the U.K. 

whilst the means may offer an apparent decent picture, they invariably hide a good v bad outcome and variable timings on the troughing 

scandi height rise seems pretty solid moving  forward but with the Atlantic ridge tending to amplify, we keep dropping an upper trough into the e Atlantic sector 

 

Such is  life for a UK weather enthusiast !

If it were Winter I'd be looking on in envy at potentially inches of snow in the South while frantically curtain twitching to find a mere  flurry !

Edited June 26, 2021 by northwestsnow

[damianslaw]

Quite an abnormal state of affairs at present. A shallow trough feature impaled it seems over the channel, not going anywhere for 5 days. All a sign we are in a very sluggish slow moving pattern. In a more active flow it would be kicked aside in no time.. alas it means the south will continue to be much wetter than the north..

As we move into July, strong sign of a robust ridge of heights building over Scandi. However sign of an amplified Atlantic azores ridge as well, where will the trough then drop? Possibly over the UK but could it be held off by the ridge to the NE. Not surprised Met going for a SW NE divide, again quite unusual normally NW SE divide. Central west Scotland the place to be... how rare!

[Uncle_Barty]

Of course, what could well happen is that the Scandi high is corrected east with time, and if the Azores ridge amplifies into the Atlantic, we'll be left with the limpet trough over us.

[Djdazzle]

53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Such is  life for a UK weather enthusiast !

If it were Winter I'd be looking on in envy at potentially inches of snow in the South while frantically curtain twitching to find a mere  flurry !

If it was winter, you just know that the uppers would be rubbish and it would still be rain.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty unfortunate to be boxed in with this Low Pressure area through a good chunk of next week.. But a little caution required as just the other day it was looking like the weekend would become unsettled...now it looks largely dry!  Folks North of the Midlands should largely escape dry,with the far South becoming quite wet,and perhaps thundery at times. The rain perhaps becoming confined to the far SE come Thuurday,and we then see potentially an improvement coming out way for later next week and the Weekend!

Decent this Weekend,so try to enjoy! Enjoy the footy and have a beer on me.

Edited June 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[northwestsnow]

6z is a real mixed bag, lots going on.

Glass half full , looks warm with lots of summer weather on offer,esp for the North West initially...

A spell of general warm dry weather,then something unstable with thunderstorms,perhaps 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

6z is a real mixed bag, lots going on.

Glass half full , looks warm with lots of summer weather on offer,esp for the North West initially...

A spell of general warm dry weather,then something unstable with thunderstorms,perhaps 

Jobs a good un mate...something for everyone..although it may be having its 4 different personalities of the day...

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is a real mixed bag, lots going on.

Glass half full , looks warm with lots of summer weather on offer,esp for the North West initially...

A spell of general warm dry weather,then something unstable with thunderstorms,perhaps 

Again though for me apart from a few hours of rain monday its dry  lol!according to ecm its meant to be raining here right now but its NOT!!!!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Again though for me apart from a few hours of rain monday its dry  lol!according to ecm its meant to be raining here right now but its NOT!!!!!!

I think Shaky as developed his own little rain shield in Leicester...so the forecast is rain for many,but Leicester should remain dry its more than possible mate,love your posts,such a character..Hopefully we should all begin to settle down come Thursday though.

[sheikhy]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think Shaky as developed his own little rain shield in Leicester...so the forecast is rain for many,but Leicester should remain dry its more than possible mate,love your posts,such a character..Hopefully we should all begin to settle down come Thursday though.

Honestly matt its crazy!!gfs has got the upper hand over ecm today and at a very short time scale!!!dont see that happen often!!makes me think it might downgrade the ridiculous rainfall amounts more widely for people further south!!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, it’s true, that lingering shallow trough / weakness to the south is a real pain in the a**...but despite that, there’s still plenty of warm air indicated, unless you’re stuck under persistent rain!...the pattern generally speaking looks preety slow moving / sluggish ...so any radical changes look..basically non existent! ? ⛈...bear in mind, this is just my opinion.. very amateur at that..with a fair degree of whisky...hiccup!   

Edited June 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Indeed, karl. And the latest GEFS temperature ensembles are not to be sniffed at:

     

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, karl. And the latest GEFS temperature ensembles are not to be sniffed at:

     

Spot on Ed, I’ve just looked myself..through an alcoholic haze! ..and you’re so right, for most of England, the southern half at least, the temperature mean is largely respectable for the time of year! ..great work Ed, not just in here, but right across the forums.  

Edited June 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Again though for me apart from a few hours of rain monday its dry  lol!according to ecm its meant to be raining here right now but its NOT!!!!!!

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:(for Leicester from UK Met)

Changeable, often cloudy through the period, with bands of rain or showers, locally heavy and potentially thundery. Warm by day but feeling humid. Perhaps drier and brighter on Wednesday.

[Frosty.]

Let me just say from the outset..nobody on here wants a better July than me!!!..understand that from the outset ! ...anyway, moving swiftly on, there’s some good signs from the GEFS 6z....for sure,  there’s some crap signs too...but remember, I’m quite positively positive.. ..about the prospects for the second third of this meteorological summer! even if I’m drunk, whatever.. pfft..!!!!!  

ps..you can tell I’m not with it when I don’t show the charts in the most economical way! ..I.e..side by side..pfft..forget about it..wow, now I sound like the mafia! 

 

Edited June 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[JayAlmeida]

These models are guna flip until they have to make their mind up on how these troughs play out. Probably won't be resolved until early next week.

[Man With Beard]

6 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Oh just to add no rain for leicester what so ever from now till the end of the run from gfs 00z!!!!ecm has rain for me tuesday but apart from that nuttin much!!it seems to have downgraded the amounts significantly for me!!

Anywhere south of Manchester will need to be forecasted day by day. No chance of nailing the rain/convection bands beyond 24 hours.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not sure if the ECM mean as been posted today,so here goes...general signs of a settling down beyond Wednesday. Robust Heights around the scandy location also,the trough to the Sw of the UK which could bring further thundery spells to these locations later on! Could also be serving to act as an Heat pump,with very warm air encroaching from the South! So I would say plenty of summary conditions moving into July,with that increased risk of big storms at times also..sounds like a Summers dream for many,especially you storm seekers...come on @Zak M and @Allseasons-si get your backsides on the model thread

[Frosty.]

Wow Matt, I don’t even care if you didn’t quote anything that I posted about the ECM 0z ensemble mean or any other output for that matter .. you’re a netweather legend....all the very best..keep doing what you’re doing..cos it’s amazing! ! ..post more often..you’re a shiny ️  

[Uncertainty]

Icon going dry and settled for all from late Wednesday, the trough to the west deconstructing and kept at bay...

 

Interestingly the 6z GFS stayed generally settled throughout the semi-reliable too. Bit of a mini-trend perhaps developing this afternoon?

[Frosty.]

Jeez what’s the problem guys..? Shirley the Gfs 6z has some positives..? ..hmmmmmmmmmm? ...let’s head forward to the 12z..pfffttt.   

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours shows that trough weakness to the south finally diminishing! ...is that the right word?..just checking!

 

 

Edited June 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Wow Matt, I don’t even care if you didn’t quote anything that I posted about the ECM 0z ensemble mean or any other output for that matter .. you’re a netweather legend....all the very best..keep doing what you’re doing..cos it’s amazing! ! ..post more often..you’re a shiny ️  

Cheers mate...sorry I wasn't sure if the ECM mean had been quoted...I may have missed some of the posts though. But for sure your very thorough with the mean and ensemble updates.. kudos to you.

12z could bring some very warm and potential thundery conditions at times,more especially to the W/SW.. but wow I've never seen so much NH High pressure before..I would say that it most likely stays warm and at times very warm for some time to come...The smaller details of thundery episodes is very much TBC... One thing that looks a good call though is we have finally lost the cool conditions moving forward...

[summer blizzard]

Models had the 1020mb area out by day 8 this morning so can't be too excited. It still as yet looks like any pressure build is temporary.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Cheers mate...sorry I wasn't sure if the ECM mean had been quoted...I may have missed some of the posts though. But for sure your very thorough with the mean and ensemble updates.. kudos to you.

12z could bring some very warm and potential thundery conditions at times,more especially to the W/SW.. but wow I've never seen so much NH High pressure before..I would say that it most likely stays warm and at times very warm for some time to come...The smaller details of thundery episodes is very much TBC... One thing that looks a good call though is we have finally lost the cool conditions moving forward...

Nae problem friend!...I’m actually quite intrigued by this potential upcoming NE / SW split?..so rare..almost so impossible! ...time will tell, I’m not convinced! ..there’s always a first I suppose!.. .cheers Matt