Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Azazel]

First signs of instability here

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Brest peninsula has kicked things off. Not a bad place to start. Pretty far west. 

[Electricmumma]

31 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Yep, this one sprung to my mind quite quickly! Not sure it’ll be as amazing as that one was, but one can dream! 
 

Alternatively, a June 22nd-23rd 2016 redux would be even better! 

Anything would be nice!

[Guest]

I just wonder whether we might see a few early thundery showers kick off from this year. Satellite does show cooling cloud tops in this area. 

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Brest peninsula has kicked things off. Not a bad place to start. Pretty far west. 

Yup noticed this 30 mins ago on sat24!!lovely little cumulonimbus cloud popped out of no where like a popcorn!!!!and as you say pretty far west!!

[Turquoise]

a little storm has started in Brest peninsula which seems to be heading NNE. Very early to tell yet but this seems a lot further west than anticipated. Not sure if this is the start of the main activity or if this is just a isolated storm and the main stuff will break out further east later. Interesting to see what will happen.

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

a little storm has started in Brest peninsula which seems to be heading NNE. Very early to tell yet but this seems a lot further west than anticipated. Not sure if this is the start of the main activity or if this is just a isolated storm and the main stuff will break out further east later. Interesting to see what will happen.

South west might still have a chance then

[Turquoise]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

South west might still have a chance then

maybe thats a bit too far west...thinking more CS England and Midlands maybe..although looking at the radar looks to be moving more east as it goes...so yes everything ok defintely looks like its veering to the east. We will see where it breaks out

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

South west might still have a chance then

Not confident for the SW.

Upper air flow is generally expected to be NNE at best, perhaps more NE or ENE even.  This would suggest any storm activity that initiates over Brittany etc would head up towards east Dorset and/or Hampshire area.

Previous experiences of how these things unfold tend to leave me rather underwhelmed for my/our location personally, especially as work commitments prevent me from travelling anywhere.

I'm in Ipswich next week.  Now that would have been an ideal location if the activity could wait until then. 

Edited June 16, 2021 by AWD

[ChannelThunder]

Here we go! The sky is filling with Floccus and mid-level towers already! Just what I like to see

[Sprites]

25 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Brest peninsula has kicked things off. Not a bad place to start. Pretty far west. 

The problem is that new cells will develop on the eastern flank of the previous cell. 

This makes the sferics creep east ahead of the perceived flow, unless some discreet cells erupt locally...

[Paul Sherman]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Here we go! The sky is filling with Floccus and mid-level towers already! Just what I like to see

Really decent cumulus field here in Essex this afternoon must admit was not expecting that at all

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, Sprites said:

The problem is that new cells will develop on the eastern flank of the previous cell. 

This makes the sferics creep east ahead of the perceived flow, unless some discreet cells erupt locally...

Yep that is usually the problem. Although I was thinking I would be seeing cells erupting initially around the Channel Islands/Cherbourg area, so it is a bonus that there is instability backed even further west than that. 

[Guest]

Here goes Cherbourg, just worried this is too early and storms will be surface based and mix out things a bit! 

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Here goes Cherbourg, just worried this is too early and storms will be surface based and mix out things a bit! 

I share your concerns. On the flip side, UKV has been developing those early storms and they're well out of the way/have little effect on further initiation later in the evening if it's to be believed.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Here goes Cherbourg, just worried this is too early and storms will be surface based and mix out things a bit! 

It's fairly optimal timing. With the current timing, the maturing development phases will be 6-8pm over the southern Channel with 1000-2000 of elevated CAPE. 

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really decent cumulus field here in Essex this afternoon must admit was not expecting that at all

Same here, Paul.

Just off 29C here and humidity continuing to climb here too.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Harry

[Guest]

 

[Guest]

Annoying I have a dinner reservations with the misses at 7.30  

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Annoying I have a dinner reservations with the misses at 7.30  

Skip the starters/desserts. Out by 20.45

[alexisj9]

No sign of any thing here yet, fully capped. And hot.

 

[Liam Burge]

27 minutes ago, AWD said:

Not confident for the SW.

Upper air flow is generally expected to be NNE at best, perhaps more NE or ENE even.  This would suggest any storm activity that initiates over Brittany etc would head up towards east Dorset and/or Hampshire area.

Previous experiences of how these things unfold tend to leave me rather underwhelmed for my/our location personally, especially as work commitments prevent me from travelling anywhere.

I'm in Ipswich next week.  Now that would have been an ideal location if the activity could wait until then. 

 

Aww that's sad. Was really hoping for something.

[LightningLover]

A mixture of cirrus and spotty cumulus here, humidity is tangibly increasing!

[Mapantz]

I suspect my lightning detector will pick up sferics when they get into the channel. It seems to enhance the distance that I am able to detect.

[tomp456]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Annoying I have a dinner reservations with the misses at 7.30  

Don't you have a real, proper date with mother nature this evening? Priorities, n all.