Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Guest]

Just now, tomp456 said:

Don't you have a real, proper date with mother nature this evening? Priorities, n all.  

That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want)

[Sprites]

30 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yep that is usually the problem. Although I was thinking I would be seeing cells erupting initially around the Channel Islands/Cherbourg area, so it is a bonus that there is instability backed even further west than that. 

Yeah that's quite far west ATM, good luck if your out later. 

The lack of data over the continent may be giving us a surprise...

Edited June 16, 2021 by Sprites

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want)

I take it she doesn’t frequent this forum

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want)

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want)

No flashing and bangs in the night your way tonight then!! Might be safe for some to have their cameras out after all ...

[Liam Burge]

So humid here in the South West. 

[Azazel]

its soupy out there. Office sitting at 29 degrees. Can't wait to get home and have a cold shower.

[Azazel]

those cells firing over cherbourg definitely heading well east to me up towards Brighton.

[tomp456]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want)

I feel your pain!

One will always let you down. 

 

[Guest]

Mid level flow is coming from about 205degrees currently so just N of NNE. 

A trough is stretching from East Dorset to the Brest Peninsular and to be honest the cells firing in northern France are probably surface based a look a bit messy, although the radar is pixelated somewhat there. 

[Mike Poole]

My first foray into the storms thread for 2021, and it is looking good I think for some action tonight.  I always like a probabilistic take on things when there is lots of uncertainty around, so here’s cumulative precipitation to lunchtime tomorrow from the PEAROME ensemble suite 9z, at the 6%, 50% and 94% of the probability distribution:

London and surrounding area and towards Kent looks most favourable, but significant likelihood of something as far west as Swindon maybe.  

[Guest]

I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

Edited June 16, 2021 by Alderc

[Ben Sainsbury]

As Alderc, tagged in a previous tweet seem good positivity coming through from UkWeatherWorld about tonights prospects! Those storms in N France almost moving direct northerly, maybe NNE at the moment.

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

yea i would say so. It was always going to be Kent, Sussex, Essex area anyway. Not sure why people were getting exicted over it being further west

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

Come on Chris, you know better than this than to call game over before the event has even started really

[tomp456]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

wow, I'm literally just to the right of the line, on the coast. 

There is no storm food in the sky yet.....

heat and humidity have increased in the last hour!

High cloud around Portsmouth area is visible! 

[ChannelThunder]

Stacks of AC Cas in the sky here, doesn't look game over to me just yet at least!

[thunderhead 2005]

I think these cells will die off in the Channel, if i'm not mistaken that the storms need to be elevated in nature therefore it wont be for another couple of hours yet and would explode in the channel as they wont be affected by sea temps.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Come on Chris, you know better than this than to call game over before the event has even started really

I know, but the radar imagery gives a lot away though, I’ve never seen new storms form ahead of those messy type returns. 

[steveh19]

2 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

wow, I'm literally just to the right of the line, on the coast. 

There is no storm food in the sky yet.....

heat and humidity have increased in the last hour!

High cloud around Portsmouth area is visible! 

Keeping my fingers crossed for us in Worthing. It usually just misses us to the east, and Brighton get it. But hopefully we’ll be lucky tonight. 

[tomp456]

Just now, steveh19 said:

Keeping my fingers crossed for us in Worthing. It usually just misses us to the east, and Brighton get it. But hopefully we’ll be lucky tonight. 

Even if we didn't get a direct hit, Brighton is still a good place as we'll still be able to see the lightning and hear the thunder  

[thunderhead 2005]

as suspected these are SB storms and dieing off, nocturnal cooling along with high DP will cause the storms to develop just wait till 7ish

[James175]

Buzzing for the night ahead. I should know by now not to get my hopes up but it's looking increasingly promising by the hour

[Harry]

Phwoar, it’s been a while since I felt a warm southerly breeze like this. All Cu field at the moment here, nothing yet in the mid levels (although that’s to be expected) 

[steveh19]

1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

Even if we didn't get a direct hit, Brighton is still a good place as we'll still be able to see the lightning and hear the thunder  

Very true. Just head to the beach, we have a great view out to sea and of Brighton.