Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[jimben]

5 minutes ago, Delka said:

lots of thunder flies out today in the garden, taking that as a good luck for tonight 

So often that nature provides the very best forecast 

[Delka]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

tiny black ones? thrips, not noticed any here yet

yep, first day i’ve seen any this year and they’re out in full force

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I have seen situations like this over the last 20 years and they never plan out to how models predict. (like asking which corn in the pan will popcorn and exactly when)     It could form over Bristol and hit Midlands missing SE, it could form over Belgium and miss UK completely.  no one knows.

Yeah, very difficult to predict these storms.

[DanDorsetUK]

If you play back windy. com direction of cloud travel the past 2 hours it's much more NNE than I thought it would be. Unless this is meant to switch more NE later?

[ChannelThunder]

6 minutes ago, Dan Clow said:

If you play back windy. com direction of cloud travel the past 2 hours it's much more NNE than I thought it would be. Unless this is meant to switch more NE later?

I spotted this too. It's already on the exact NNE track shown in certain models for later. Hopefully this bodes well

Edited June 16, 2021 by Lance M

[IanT]

9 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Perfect.

Am I correct that any convective activity is likely to be centred E of the rainfall..?

[Mapantz]

Latest UKV has thrown up another solution.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Yeah as Mapantz said, another UKV solution but a good one also with 3 rounds of thunderstorms in the space of 36 hours!

[staplehurst]

Reminds me a little of Monday 24th June 2019...  (when the storms kept veering more to the east than originally forecast)

Edited June 16, 2021 by staplehurst

[chapmanslade]

38 minutes ago, Ciderwithrosie said:

According to my little weather station the humidity is dropping here in Somerset . Was 60% earlier this morning and now 35% . 

Sky becoming hazy as well but as I said humidity dropping in fact now down to 33%  so I think that the forecast for storms further east of me is correct. 

 

Don't confuse relative humidity with dew point. The RH will drop as it gets warmer during the day.

You need to use something like this to calculate the DP from the RH and temperature - watch the DP rise

Dew Point Calculator (www.dpcalc.org)

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by chapmanslade

[LightningLover]

Just now, staplehurst said:

Reminds me a little of Monday 24th June 2019... 

Yep, this one sprung to my mind quite quickly! Not sure it’ll be as amazing as that one was, but one can dream! 
 

Alternatively, a June 22nd-23rd 2016 redux would be even better! 

[Paul Sherman]

Tell you what it certainly feels good here today and more akin to what we have stateside on a Storm day. 

Strong Warm Southerly wind and T/Td spreads that would suggest fireworks tonight. 

82/61 at present which is pretty spectacular for the UK and would expect some readings this evening as cloud rolls on and humidity rises further to be around 79/64 even by that stage. 

I call that Fuel or Storm Food

Also first signs of destabilisation with high level Cirrus appearing here now. 

[sheikhy]

Latest ukv seems to break out another batch of thunder showers further west early thursday morning!!!models are all over the shop!!!current temp here is 25 degrees and quite humid!!?

[Harry]

27C here and climbing fast - humidity also creeping up it feels to me (don’t have access to stats like @Paul Sherman lol).

Fingers crossed, despite my ongoing reservations and fears of easterly doom.

[StormChaseUK]

Yes the UKV is factoring a few homegrowns in the heat and the elevated.   First few storms maybe 7pm south east with more elevated overnight.

Something takes a huge chunk out the temps around 7pm in SE hmmm wonder if that's an expected early import or homegrown rain shower dropping temps

[Azazel]

Anyone kind enough to post the latest UKV charts?

[Sam jackson88]

Hotter than yesterday and the dew point is climbing now. Looking good

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Anyone kind enough to post the latest UKV charts?

I was going to then realised it's subscription only so admin might not want those shared.  I guess ask if admin? can share 1 or 2 grabs?

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Anyone kind enough to post the latest UKV charts?

A couple snippets here:

[Azazel]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

I was going to then realised it's subscription only so admin might not want those shared.  I guess ask if admin? can share 1 or 2 grabs?

I saw in the thread where Netweather released UKV to subs, they said it's OK to share the occasional frames etc, especially during a potentially significant event like this - just not to go mad sharing every run all the time.

 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92068-ukv-charts-now-available/

[Mapantz]

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[StormChaseUK]

Looks like Quimper in France is the first point to fire off  (Brest)

[Guest]

Sky is starting to take on a pre-thundery look, mid level cloud starting to build off to my south west.

[Zak M]

Storm just popped up in Brittany

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by Zak M

[tomp456]

If certain models are to be believed, I am in the sweetest of sweet spots. 

Humidity has increased in the last hour

Hoping the storm food will be visible in the skies in an hour or two

 

It's like Christmas Eve as a child right now, really looking forward to the annual disappointment, and French theft of storms. It's always a highlight of summer 

Edited June 16, 2021 by tomp456
Can't spell