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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

With the UK high a little further east tonight, the ECM has ditched its nonsense low temps, but still a bit below what one might expect from a closed high pressure in mid July.

Screenshot_20210710-200514.thumb.png.f163ff339e108c39996de00aef7e715a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 12Z ensembles look okay:  t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Aye Mike, it’s a stunning ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight.. ...it’s hard to believe a mean could look this good? ...a spell of very warm settled weather on the way?...yes it is! 

? ?  

FA25675B-8F2F-4D9B-9D3D-510ECC1E1A7E.thumb.gif.3bb417b935c1fb023fdbae8f325c8159.gif790E6D72-62EF-4324-A08D-AFDD445AA1CB.thumb.gif.b596347c6a2588c3c4579bbd685fc5af.gif4C8F0B84-4BF2-4770-95D7-AD117B25E208.thumb.gif.caa8ea87127174a4f92abf9c8f6ac10c.gifB36ED663-490C-4127-82F0-5075AEF13252.thumb.gif.74b6d8a9eee238dd794d45cd47f7bd81.gif

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the ECM 12z ensembles folks!!!

Here’s the mean, excellent with position of the high pressure…

CC683384-5F6F-45EF-B7FF-751371CEEE2C.thumb.gif.7964ca90d2feba5846953a830b9c59fe.gif

But I think the spread is more revealing:

9A4F4781-03BD-4ECE-8B76-D6AA50B6DB34.thumb.gif.fa644542d62428c0b1eedabe2582c16b.gif

The area where there is least spread (T240) is now eastern UK and further east - this is a massive improvement on even the situation on the 0z, here:

185C1384-7D86-4947-8BC1-A9F4E1205E38.thumb.gif.7f621bf64ea919779301aae223a31644.gif

High pressure pushing more into UK, Northern Europe on these runs than even the 0z.  

Finally, I glanced at the SSTs - nothing pro or against summer heat here, but for interest in winter I was struck by the tripole

2A665EEE-7E18-48C8-ADDA-6C8198396E56.thumb.png.f22141aab762518172152223317adba5.png

 

 

Mentioned this tripole in one of my posts a couple of weeks ago!!!man how delicious could this winter be❄☃️⛄!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, sheikhy said:

Mentioned this tripole in one of my posts a couple of weeks ago!!!man how delicious could this winter be❄☃️⛄!!

If the east QBO doesn’t mess up again, it could be our best chance in 10 years for a proper cold one, @sheikhy.  But that’s a long way off…

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Undoubtedly the downstream effects of Storm Elsa look like bringing us our first substantial mini heatwave of summer ‘21 but it would also appear that by day ten the high is certainly on the decline into the nearby continent with a possible return of a more Atlantic regime, yet again. Admittedly it’s somewhat premature to be overly concerned about any potential breakdown considering it’s this far out but nevertheless a possible outcome all the same. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Undoubtedly the downstream effects of Storm Elsa look like bringing us our first substantial mini heatwave of summer ‘21 but it would also appear that by day ten the high is certainly on the decline into the nearby continent with a possible return of a more Atlantic regime, yet again. Admittedly it’s somewhat premature to be overly concerned about any potential breakdown considering it’s this far out but nevertheless a possible outcome all the same. 

Not sure the cause of the high pressure is said storm. I think it is the tropics and AAM as others have said, I think this hot spell could easily last a couple of weeks or more, so I agree scepticism about the breakdown is the right stance.  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

so I agree scepticism about the breakdown is the right stance.  

Aye, let’s get the cold air in first and the snow will follow! ..sorry wrong season, my bad! ...I agree though Mike, this isn’t the time to be concerned about breakdowns when the change to fine and very warm / hot hasn’t even occurred yet...I honestly, in all my time on here haven’t seen a better mean from the ecm, I’ve never been more certain of a summery spell on the way than I feel right now!....am I over confident?...Shirley not!  

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure the cause of the high pressure is said storm. I think it is the tropics and AAM as others have said, I think this hot spell could easily last a couple of weeks or more, so I agree scepticism about the breakdown is the right stance.  

(Credit to Matt Hugo for posting the charts on his Twitter feed). 

Latest Euro tropical convection forecast shows progression east until the final third of the month when it retreats to the Afro-Indian sector and Pacific trades strengthen.

That suggests our window is basically out to the end of the month (though no guarantee of course).

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Those little 6 hour periods between the model runs catch up, don’t they, now we have ICON 18z T120 with this:

C523E78D-BDA7-429A-9617-BA761D025535.thumb.png.0f4e2deaac7e1510443378f582df429e.png

And that’s St Swithins day, too…

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

Undoubtedly the downstream effects of Storm Elsa look like bringing us our first substantial mini heatwave of summer ‘21 but it would also appear that by day ten the high is certainly on the decline into the nearby continent with a possible return of a more Atlantic regime, yet again. Admittedly it’s somewhat premature to be overly concerned about any potential breakdown considering it’s this far out but nevertheless a possible outcome all the same. 

Certainly looking to be fairly transient in nature. 3-5 days potential maybe? All part of the wax and wane nature of this summer. Probably the best shot at 30+ in places I’d think.

Let’s hope for some cracking storms when the breakdown does come.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS pub run, well that looks nice!!

C3526ED3-ACC6-4773-937D-3EBFCFE5ECD3.thumb.png.ac47661c9d22f03245434126eda6ceb9.png7B1E7D4F-B9B5-4A5B-8529-2FF71E04E81E.thumb.png.96d8877176e7d98d2d9371a339a5d0ca.png

T180 here, and it backs up all the other output that we have viewed today.  Summer’s coming home…

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well, I’d take this at T240 from the GFS 18z:

AF652D4B-DD62-4376-94EB-A398EB0E95C3.thumb.png.392c5f8a5f44eda8a27199dc20632e63.png

That is what the run up to this has been about - will it be a flash in the pan, or will we set up a system of ridging from the Azores that breaks off and heads into scandi.  Think it might be going the right way this time…

Edit, it definitely is, T270;

A67C8AF7-E8B7-4B59-9825-1C70724CD381.thumb.png.bad96ddc326047dd0c53832dc1874a17.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Certainly looking to be fairly transient in nature. 3-5 days potential maybe? All part of the wax and wane nature of this summer. Probably the best shot at 30+ in places I’d think.

Let’s hope for some cracking storms when the breakdown does come.

Not according to the latest GFS run this evening. No end in sight to the HP.

Granted this may be a settled outlier, but things are certainly trending towards a more prolonged settled period.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Very nice GFS but despite all the high pressure and the UK sat right underneath high pressure I couldnt spot a single '30' on any of the red temperature maps. Nothing above 29C unless someone else can spot one but oh boy i'll take all that over a trough anyday 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The NW automated temps are creeping up on each and every run and the latest are getting up to the high 20's (for here)from midweek until the weekend and start of the following week....the heat is upgrading

check out the latest anomalies:-

610day_03.thumb.gif.990f3fcc39193033dcfe83dfe957174f.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.3748fd3742a579a5aea8fcfcbe3dd17b.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.0d9df56eb170c2a415fc70f4d64bee79.pngecmwf-ens_mslpa_nhem_11.thumb.png.85cd634018b9eb5e0f40d9b361e8f8bf.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.b752eea49f18a2d89f27a63410013dd5.png

the UKMO was a peach of a run this afternoon...

UW144-21.thumb.gif.a8d02f968503734cc5696824aa145c58.gif

sorry for the late post,i have been watching the Iceland volcano live and lost track of time

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Not according to the latest GFS run this evening. No end in sight to the HP.

Granted this may be a settled outlier, but things are certainly trending towards a more prolonged settled period.

Could be, there is scope for extension. Anything beyond 7 days would be pushing it though IMO, certainly for nationwide settled and very warm weather. Certain locations may ultimately fair better for longer (e.g the NW if there’s a N Sea undercut).

We’ll either see the HP eroded from the WNW via the Atlantic or from the SSE with LP drifting N from the near continent. That’ll be firmed up closer to the time. 
 

 

Edited by CreweCold
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