model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

It’s not looking too bad in Iceland!…I’ll get me coat!!  

Their mashed tatties are okay!

[Ali1977]

Thankfully this is the second week of Nov and not Dec - that HP is not a good look for those after some ️ 

 

unless of course 2 days later this shows up

Edited October 31, 2021 by Ali1977

[swfc-ocs]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Thankfully this is the second week of Nov and not Dec - that HP is not a good look for those after some ️ 

 

unless of course 2 days later this shows up

On my life Ali I'm sure fi is on default mode. Virtually every run of late looks like it's going all guns for something colder etc

[Ali1977]

If the ENS support this I’ll be happy, and the spaghetti will be vastly different!! 

This would be a BOOOOM  if it was within 6 days 

Edited October 31, 2021 by Ali1977

[Eagle Eye]

Looking back at the past we cannot predict the future based on what has happened, instead however we can make an educated guess on the kinematics of what has happened 

You can see the pretty normal British weather in Autumn from what I remember, the rotating PV unlikely to change in recent time unless it can split which is looking less likely as it was a couple weeks ago. 

Such a split PV is all I'm hoping for right now, either that or the possibility that has been on a different runs where we have a flip towards the end of the run bringing snow down from the North heading towards the Midlands and on some earlier runs even a flip to flow from Scandinavia. 

I'll keep you updated and write a better post soon but I'm on 8% charge right now. 

Xander 

 

[Mike Poole]

The output is really quite messy at the moment.  GEM 12z at T240:

This one has a high where you might normally expect to find a raging vortex in Canada, and could easily go on to develop heights into Greenland from this position, I would have thought.  I think the meridional pattern in the NH is primed for a cold spell, but it just needs a bit of luck to kick it off with a blocking high allowed to develop in Greenland.  I think this is one where the models will suddenly start showing this and then we wondered what we were worried about…we will see…

[Methuselah]

It certainly is messy, @Mike Poole, so who the heck knows what's going to happen? It still looks like fog could be the most 'exciting' weather that's on offer? Plenty of time for things to change, however!

    

    

    

[Paul]

I've split the latest page of posts into a fresh thread to take us into the final third of Autumn: