model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Eagle Eye]

I forgot we had the blues brothers here  Markw2680 and Severe Siberian icy blast

In all seriousness though lots of twiddling thumbs here as we wait to see what will happen when these charts do get into reliable timeframes and it looks like they'll be more twiddling of thumbs and staring at model runs to come for a while now with it getting to waiting season now

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, following a cool unsettled spell which lasts most of next week, it then gradually becomes more settled across the south with light winds and probably an increasing risk of overnight fog…the north / northwest continues with a more changeable / unsettled Atlantic regime…broad brush as it’s the mean but I think an eventual north-south split could be the outcome, I’ve mentioned this quite a few times in recent days regarding heights from the south!!

 

[Griff]

What chance in December or January

[swfc]

Pub run goes on a full bender and more . Heighths building well into greenland in fi gfs

[Allseasons-Si]

Erm,...WOW!!!

just logged in and i notice the 12z and now the 18z are more amplified than previous runs.

[tight isobar]

Earlier suite @12z showing a classic toppler as energy re-emerge in the mid Atlantic.. though.. our latest raw @18z suite has a different angle on this scenario!!. We await the full suite supports, and upcoming outs- to decipher whether it’s a classic pub run drive.. or it may be into something!??.

[carinthian]

Morning all, the GFS model being run a merry dance in its Mid to Longer term outputs. As early as 168t ( chart below ) the main protagonists for uncertainty  still remains the positioning and behaviour of the low and associated trough development south of Greenland plus the fall in heights expected over Spain/ West Med ( which the European Model started to show yesterday ).  So a lot to be resolved to find some consensus of the positioning of the split high pressure zones over Europe and the North Atlantic.. However, the main theme will be the colder conditions for many next week.

C

[sheikhy]

18 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, the GFS model being run a merry dance in its Mid to Longer term outputs. As early as 168t ( chart below ) the main protagonists for uncertainty  still remains the positioning and behaviour of the low and associated trough development south of Greenland plus the fall in heights expected over Spain/ West Med ( which the European Model started to show yesterday ).  So a lot to be resolved to find some consensus of the positioning of the split high pressure zones over Europe and the North Atlantic.. However, the main theme will be the colder conditions for many next week.

C

Maybe we can get a cold frosty high out of that carinthian?!!just a few days ago it looked like camping it self in the worst position around france!!good development this!!

[carinthian]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Maybe we can get a cold frosty high out of that carinthian?!!just a few days ago it looked like camping it self in the worst position around france!!good development this!!

Hi sheikhy, certainly GFS runs throwing all sorts of outcomes in the longer term. I think the best outcome for coldies would be for a strong NW European trough to form ad split the Russian and North Atlantic highs. Certainly we do not want to see France high in residence with stagnant synoptics charts on show ! Anyway , a more seasonal spell next week for blighty and here in the Eastern Alps snow in the forecast later on Monday. 

C

Edited October 29, 2021 by carinthian

[mb018538]

Bonfire night could be a seasonal affair this year with high pressure close by.


GFS ensembles are much drier from around this point, with the pressure mean hovering around 1020mb. Less stormy/wet as we go into November.
ECM update last night along the same sort of lines, with 500mb mean ridging taking over from troughing as we go through the first week of November.



Perhaps of most interest for the coldies is a strong signal for another marked weakening of zonal winds later into November/early December. An early bite to this year's winter?

[Methuselah]

A different look to the GFS 00Z operational run this morning -- and even a hint of a more anticyclonic pattern developing with time? But, seeing how thick and fast flip-flops are occurring right now, I won't hold my breath!

    

    

    

GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles:

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Silly season is nearly upon us folks...get your food shopping now,the turkeys are being slayed poor things.

Unsettled and often windy will sum up the next week or so....beyond that I think then things potentially get a bit more interesting!

There are clear signs for Heights to be sustained to our N/NW towards mid month,with this pattern potentially holding firm as the month ends!  Yes its a long way off...but the signs are there again for something much more wintry as that balmy season counts down!

Have a fab weekend,and the best of Health to each and everyone of ya..

Edited October 29, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Ali1977]

Day 9 looks like deep FI as far as the ENS go. Will we get some WAA heading up to our NE looks like the conundrum at the minute!! 

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 looks like deep FI as far as the ENS go. Will we get some WAA heading up to our NE looks like the conundrum at the minute!! 

Yes Ali things finely balanced. As catacol has stated we need the block to stick around to  the east to put pressure on the jet and PV 

Edited October 29, 2021 by swfc

[swfc]

Gfs has little in the way of excitement on the 6z.The op, control show the Atlantic held at bay in deep FI with the flow from a nnw direction. Positive being widespread snow cover to the east and Scandinavia. Down the line going into winter may bring something wintery via any blocking to the east or northeast. Not a bad set up for early November

[mb018538]

There's been quite a few recent GFS runs that want to develop a big anticyclone close to or over the UK after the first 10 days of November are out.

Trend setter, or barking up the wrong tree? Perhaps sniffing out the MJO movement into or around phase 5/6 as per these November analogues:

[Frosty.]

Looking towards mid Nov I found a few nice charts from the GEFS 6z…there were more but y’all can easily go check them out!   

 

[Methuselah]

Ah, and along comes the mighty GFS 12Z operational to make us all quiver with anticipation. No wonder the thread's so chock full of posts today! Next, please?

    

    

    

And, now for the temperature ensembles: T850s of anywhere between -7 and +14C should see you in the right ballpark!

  

Ain't we just got to 'lerve' autumn!

[Ali1977]

Day 11 and the jet stream is way further south on the 12z with some proper cold air close to our North , more like it

12Z

06Z

Edited October 29, 2021 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Day 12 and this is a Midlands snow event right here, on high ground at least.

 

Pretty cold uppers for 11th Nov, low to mid single digits Max’s for Midlands North 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Ali1977

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 12 and this is a Midlands snow event right here, on high ground at least.

 

Pretty cold uppers for 11th Nov, low to mid single digits Max’s for Midlands North 

Big Improvement Ali and a step in the rite direction

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, jon snow said:

Looking towards mid Nov I found a few nice charts from the GEFS 6z…there were more but y’all can easily go check them out!  

 

Last model chart. No thanks please!

[joggs]

Can't view charts ATM. What's bonfire night looking like?. 

TIA

[suxer]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Can't view charts ATM. What's bonfire night looking like?. 

TIA

Banging

[swfc]

Pretty decent control, op and mean on the gfs 12z again in fi but gathering pace be it slow. Ec needs to get the idea and get the jet  heading sse. Lot of cold air just to the north of the UK

Edited October 29, 2021 by swfc