model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters 12z, T192-T240:

And it all looks a bit of a mess to be honest.  Some unsettled period incoming maybe, but for the longer term, no early signal, same with the later T264+ chart.  

I’m holding the line, as we go into November there will be chances of cold patterns to align into December before the strat vortex has a chance to override it later into winter.  

[Ali1977]

Ahh, back to having the pub run at 2130 again .

Not much showing again for coldies on the GFS Op, and the GEFS mean not looking great - however there are some really blocky looking charts Amongst the ENS still. I’m half expecting the Op to flip cold mid Nov, probably wishful thinking !! 

 

The GEM could be good around day 12/13, with the PV getting shunted East and heights heading into the Western Arctic.

Edited October 31, 2021 by Ali1977

[Methuselah]

There's a considerable amount of amplification on today's GFS 00Z operational run. But, at the moment, overnight fog looks more likely than cold. All change by the 06Z, perhaps?

    

    

    

And now for the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles: what do they indicate?

  

Ah, just as I thought: all is now clear!

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all Halloween bringing plenty of the of the wet stuff,GFS still very keen on raising pressure 

Latter part of U.K. while ECM shows low pressure pushing in quickly to displace any pressure rise.

All very uncertain after 5th Nov.GEFS keen on bringing milder air aloft past the 5th we shall see.

[carinthian]

On 25/10/2021 at 10:14, carinthian said:

Morning all, latest GFS op run handles the developing wave along the polar front on Sunday rather differently to the other main models. Deeper and more progressive across Southern Britain on Sunday with potential for some possible stormy conditions on its southern flank. Where as UKMO absorbs the potential wave with-in a rather slower moving complex low. ECM somewhere in between. Best sit on the fence with this one and see where we go ! Longer term , the main models still heading for a colder spell as we head towards Guy Faulkes night but hinting that any blocking could be short term with an increased zonal flow in the latest operational runs but the ensemble means still showing  a slower pattern towards displacing the trough over Western Europe.

C

The chart above from nearly a week ago. GFS spot with disturbance for today ( Sunday ) Just incredible accuracy .

C

[mushymanrob]

Nothing to see here, just rather ordinary, average, unsettled westerly but maybe on the drier side of average  for the first half of November

[cyclonic happiness]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Nothing to see here, just rather ordinary, average, unsettled westerly but maybe on the drier side of average  for the first half of November

can it really be an unsettled but drier than average?

[Cambrian]

My worst fears confirmed. It’s there all day for today, this Halloween, here again on the 6z GFS operational run, that evil looking pumpkin head  with those piercing staring eyes bottom left and right, and an angry, horrifically asymmetric, blood red mouth rearing up at us from the south. I had teachers at school who looked like that - well, that’s how they would look at me at least. Very scary.

Looking further ahead to day 10, there is considerable variability between the models and often between runs too.

Will we steadily ghost into a progressively chillier, unsettled middle of November, at the base of a broad trough diving down over the North Atlantic, as here for 240h from the 0z ECM operational run, with plenty of cooling to come….

 

or face the spectre of a series of squashed looking pumpkins of high pressure pushing up from the south as with the 0z GFS operational run, and again on the 6z run, blocking off the trough altogether, with the prospect of a more entrenched colder spell successively delayed and eventually spirited away? 

 

 

I sense it is just a matter of time, and it might indeed be better to have to wait a while for the diving trough setup to deliver properly interesting potential for some early wintry weather later in November, rather than use up promising looking synoptics before we’ve had enough seasonal cooling to bring meaningfully cold air down from the north. As my Uncle Yoda tells me….

[damianslaw]

Alot of uncertainty post 5th November, GFS and ECM showing wildly differing output.. perhaps not too unusual at such timeframes, but I would expect them to harmonise in future runs for the 5-7 day period.

ECM shows the atlantic trough gaining the upper hand, but unlike recent days, the polar front is being forced further south as the jetstream shifts south, the end result is chilly and cyclonic with the UK sitting at the base of the trough and alot of chilly uppers digging in from the north, in time a more concerted push of cold uppers looks likely by mid-month if the model has the direction of travel right.

GFS continues to play around with very different fayre.. promoting a ridge through the UK and then advected further east - mmm not sure what it is seeing to cause such a scenario - I'd be surprised to see a ridge develop further eastwards, but we could see a strong ridge to the south with the trough further north coming unstuck somewhat and we end up with a broadly westerly pattern, with the most unsettled conditions to the north. 

Need to give it a day or two before can see a more clearer path of the evolution as we approach mid-month. Note GFS is raising heights to the north at the end of latest run.. 

I'm sensing November could be quite an interesting month with various synoptics on offer..

[bluearmy]

The gfs fi shows a typically frustrating evolution for nw Europe whereby the west n American ridge/greeny ridge combo deliver a deep east n American trough whereas the persistent euro upper ridge keeps us away from cold.  Hopefully not a precursor of wintry frustrations on here ! 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfs fi shows a typically frustrating evolution for nw Europe whereby the west n American ridge/greeny ridge combo deliver a deep east n American trough whereas the persistent euro upper ridge keeps us away from cold.  Hopefully not a precursor of wintry frustrations on here ! 

No doubt a frustrating year ahead, as always Deep FI looks promising though, as promising as a 16 day chart can be that is!! 

 

The day 11 control is having a go though  

Edited October 31, 2021 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

No doubt a frustrating year ahead, as always Deep FI looks promising though, as promising as a 16 day chart can be that is!! 

 

The day 11 control is having a go though  

It’s deep fi and it just won’t verify like that but it’s notable that the model evolves to build that euro ridge - it doesn’t just build it because it throws three six’s on the bounce …..

[johnholmes]

To the here and now, gusty winds and moderate almost heavy rain to 3/4 blue sky and the sun in less than 10 minutes

 

[mushymanrob]

51 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

can it really be an unsettled but drier than average?

yes... what i mean is when it rains, it is likely to be lighter and patchy as opposed to the complete deluge we have had this morning.

 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

can it really be an unsettled but drier than average?

Well I’m unsettled by the Gfs 0z op..haven’t dared look at the 6z yet…is it safe???!  

Edited October 31, 2021 by jon snow

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Well I’m unsettled by the Gfs 0z op..haven’t dared look at the 6z yet…is it safe???!  

P17 is nice 

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P17 is nice 

Woopidoo yes there’s P17…actually, despite the 6z op following the 0z with its longer term benign borefest, the mean suggests more of a north-south split and the ECM op + the mean is just more generally unsettled longer term…roll on winter..just one month to go..the clock ? is ticking! 

[swfc]

Very frustrating in regard to ridging and its position atm going forward. The PV not raging on a sw trajectory and lodged in the cod. I'd be in my limited opinion giving it 10 days etc to see how the riding and outlook is coming out of the esb. I'm in the front loaded winter camp so given its a month till winter a lot can change, good and bad. Let's be seeing record Heighths threw greenland, bitter cold spreading West and a full wind Reversal in northern Europe. Not much to ask considering the work, pain and frustration members on here endure. Here's hoping

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, swfc said:

the work, pain and frustration members on here endure. Here's hoping

The work, pain and frustration goes with the territory, this  is the u k ..or good old Blighty, not northern Finland! …to be honest though I don’t care that the models look meh, it’s still autumn for another 4 weeks..plenty of time for wintery charts in the reliable..or am I just kidding myself that this winter will be any better than the usual crud fest!  

Edited October 31, 2021 by jon snow

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The work, pain and frustration goes with the territory, this  is the u k ..or good old Blighty, not northern Finland! …to be honest though I don’t care that the models look meh, it’s still autumn for another 4 weeks..plenty of time for wintery charts in the reliable..or am I just kidding myself that this winter will be any better than the usual crud fest!  

I realise it's not the far north of Europe. Be good to catch a break this winter and just drop a classic 70s,80s winter on us. Oh and no shortwave drama

[Methuselah]

And, now the GFS 06Z operational run looks like providing (not that NWPMs provide anything other than ideas?) some of that lovely warm, wet fog we all know and love:

    

    

    

And, of course (and this goes without saying), we should always peruse the GEFS temperature ensembles before deciding!

  

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, now the GFS 06Z operational run looks like providing (not that NWPMs provide anything other than ideas?) some of that lovely warm, wet fog we all know and love:

    

    

    

And, of course (and this goes without saying), we should always peruse the GEFS temperature ensembles before deciding!

  

The GFS Op being a big warm outlier looking at the spaghetti!! 

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GFS Op being a big warm outlier looking at the spaghetti!! 

Yes that 15 Nov chart is very odd.. 

[Eagle Eye]

If you were wondering what the Canadian model had to say about this... 

*Looks away*

Moving on... 

[Frosty.]

41 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

If you were wondering what the Canadian model had to say about this... 

 

*Looks away*

Moving on... 

It’s not looking too bad in Iceland!…I’ll get me coat!!