model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 6z in FI is trying it’s best to avoid bringing in the cold uppers from the N NE . Need the high further west

Yeah but no but yeah.. .. ..it’s still autumn… ...so no worries mate!   

Edited October 28, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Now looky here guys and gals.. this is a good looking GEFS 6z mean right here, if you’re a coldie of course?…beyond that, as you would expect, the pattern tends to flatten out but that doesn’t preclude further cold shots for sure… ?!    

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles. Southern snow-seekers look away now:

    

[Cambrian]

Looking at the 6z GFS operational run, there’s quite a significant difference with the previous few runs at day 10. 

At 246h on the 0z GFS op, low pressure up to the east of Iceland, the UK in a mild westerly, looking quite barmy in the south, high pressure centred over France. However, the high pressure to the south is soft looking, there for the taking, a flat looking cell, lacking intensity.

 

No surprise then at 240h on the 6z op, with just a little more of a NW-SE orientation of the Atlantic jet stream, a deep low pressure is formed to the northwest of Ireland, which as it moves east draws us in to another blast of colder air from the north in the following couple of days, and the Azores high is doing what it says on the tin, staying well off to the southwest. Part of a pattern of regular shots of colder air coming and going with the see-saw of the jet stream.

This is more like the 0z ECM op at 240h if you allow for a further 6 hours eastward movement on the low, though the low forms further north, the orientation of the jet stream is more NW-SE like the 6z GFS.

As we slide further into autumn, the GFS continues on the swings between runs as it navigates the see-saw of the jet stream, with big fluctuations in the modelled weather roundabout us. 

 

[Frosty.]

As I have a bit of time on my hands I thought I would share with y’all a few GEFS 6z perturbations which I particularly like… …enjoy (if you’re a coldie of course)!!!   

 

[Frosty.]

Omg I just love the cfs!..can’t think why?.. ..anyway. FI looks interesting?   .. plenty of snow / snaw!   ️ 

 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Just before the 12z runs, just had a look at the 6z op and for sure there is some impactful.. rain in the forecast, also some occasional mountainous snaw! …preety normal for late autumn!  

[swfc]

Quite big changes early on in the north atlantic on the gfs 12z and the whole picture changes. Not sure where this will leave the run esp fi

Better fi

Edited October 28, 2021 by swfc

[ICE COLD]

This is looking a lot better on the 12z

[Ali1977]

Much better FI

Edited October 28, 2021 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

Here we go a lot better 

Edited October 28, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+324: 

[swfc]

Control is as flat as Prince Andrew after a lie detector test . See what set of ens show and EC

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all GFS pulling away from the high pressure to the south in the 8 to 10 day period and beyond.

The low pressure to are northeast keeping most of the U.K. in this colder northwesterly / northerly 

airstream for the first part of November.From then on all eyes watching for northern blocking,very

posible if all goes to plan.

 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Control is as flat as Prince Andrew after a lie detector test . See what set of ens show and EC

Yep, only a few ENS looking good around day 9 now.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational…I’m so happy that coldies have taken over the asylum… …and it’s still autumn..what on earth will happen in winter??!!

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by jon snow

[HellItsHot]

12 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational…I’m so happy that coldies have taken over the asylum… …and it’s still autumn..what on earth will happen in winter??!!

 

13 degrees and drizzle. 
 

Sorry, couldn’t help myself. 

[Ali1977]

Deeper into FI the 12z looks very promising - I think we are in a far greater position for an early cold Winter than people may think!! 

[Frosty.]

GEFS 12z P16 is pretty good for cold reloads from the NW / N!…there may even be a better one? but this caught my eye! ?  

 

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z temperature ensembles. Unfortunately, the operational run was drawn using invisible ink!

    

[Frosty.]

..I can’t be bothered posting any ECM 12z charts, it’s a bit meh really and becomes more benign later…  

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 hours ago, swfc said:

Control is as flat as Prince Andrew after a lie detector test . See what set of ens show and EC

Haha the first post of the season I do was gonna be a really wel thought out bit of info but this comment has made me give nothing worthy at all apart from laugh out loud and adds humour to this place welcome to the new winter thread where all us weather nuts find peace and tranquiltity talking about how long we think the Scandinavian high will last and whether we need - 8 or - 11 850's to produce low level snow or not, rather than communicating with family members at 9pm at night because we're all excited about the 18gfs about to come out hoping for the holy grail!!!!!!

Edited October 28, 2021 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

..I can’t be bothered posting any ECM 12z charts, it’s a bit meh really and becomes more benign later…  

Yes ECM sticking with the return to a flatter pattern, broadly west-east aligned jet, but won't take much to tilt it back on a NW-SE trajectory, indeed suspect if model went out a couple more days it would show such a scenario.. 

GFS 12z in the meantime is showing renewed NW airstream attacks, each one a bit more potent in terms of cold than the one before, with any westerly airstream very brief.

UKMO looks a bit more akin to GFS this evening.

[markw2680]

7 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Haha the first post of the season I do was gonna be a really wel thought out bit of info but this comment has made me give nothing worthy at all apart from laugh out loud and adds humour to this place welcome to the new winter thread where all us weather nuts find peace and tranquiltity talking about how long we think the Scandinavian high will last and whether we need - 8 or - 11 850's to produce low level snow or not, rather than communicating with family members at 9pm at night because we're all excited about the 18gfs about to come out hoping for the holy grail!!!!!!

Can we stick to the models please as winter is over a month away

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Can we stick to the models please as winter is over a month away

Haha welcome to the pack my sibling, my older brother Mark, who pretends to his wife I'm alot more obsessive over the weather than I am constantly asks me radar images to see if the snow is heading to him and refuses under any circumstances than to live anywhere below 500ft below sea level