model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Ali1977]

24 minutes ago, joggs said:

Can't view charts ATM. What's bonfire night looking like?. 

TIA

Pretty dry, light winds and not too cold. Pretty good for fireworks 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all GFS ECM GEM all now looking for high pressure to move in from the Atlantic latter end of next week,

after some very unsettled and wet weather over at least 5 days or so flooding possible in places and temperatures 

dropping to average or a little below.All eyes on final positioning of high pressure and how long it lasts ,if of course 

charts are correct they have been struggling after 5/6days.

 

[Frosty.]

I found this to be a very interesting mean from the GEFS 12z around mid November for coldies, and when you look through the perturbations there is some stunning wintery potential!…fingers crossed and it’s also good to see the pros current thoughts long term are towards colder with wintry showers from the N / NW!  

[Cambrian]

Good agreement at 240h suddenly emerging among the 12z operational runs from the ECM, GEM and GFS.

  
 

Winds in from the northwest, unsettled, slightly below average temperatures, with plenty of scope for successive incursions of polar air moving forward.

[Mike Poole]

I’ve been quiet since this cold pattern started showing in the models, because I don’t know quite where we go from here.  Part of me thinks any early winter will require local patterns to enable a ridge into Greenland, during a wider meridional pattern (some runs have done this), another part thinks of the need for a couple of bites at the cherry, a further part says follow patterns that destabilise the strat vortex (some merit here), another part thinks a transient ridge and then normal fayre (but my own brain doesn’t like that one).

I don’t think things are going to turn zonal anytime soon, not at all, but beyond that, I think we are relying on luck within the prevailing NH pattern for something local to Greenland to kick things off.  Today’s ECM clusters looked a total mess beyond T192.  So if, I repeat if, something significant were to show itself, it might do so at relatively modest timescales…well worth keeping up the watch, we have many tickets in the lottery at the moment.  

[BLIZZARDMAN]

Whatever this winter may bring, I hope the chase is as fun and and exhilarating as always, plus we have plenty of time for something magical, I mean this happened at the end of winter did it not?

[jules216]

Interesting developments. The waters around ENSO surfacing almost to EP La Nina configuration, yet the warm waters around MC have it looking like a blend of Hybrid or CP Nina. Next MJO wave hitting MC will be intesting to watch to see what eastward progress this Nina permits. This in turn can dictate weather we see a substantial rise in FT and later MT, mid.November stronger MJO in phases 4-7 can dictate a good early winter blocking patterns.

[Ali1977]

Control keeping the eye candy alive in FI, not much for coldies to cheer about with the latest Op though!! 

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 00Z continues with the cooling theme; a trend backed up by the latest Met Office monthly forecast:

    

    

    

But the amount of scatter present, after Nov 6, suggests that GEFS ensembles are not a very reliable guide - on this occasion:

  

 

Edited October 30, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

 

Definitely a more unsettled flavour to the ensembles today compared to the last couple of days. Looks like the Atlantic has been underestimated again, and any wait for high pressure may possibly be further down the line than it was looking.

00z clusters do have a high pressure option, but slightly smaller probability than the more unsettled.

[northwestsnow]

Looking like a dry Bonfire night for many with perhaps the Atlantic moving in later in the day ...more so for Western areas perhaps ..

Longer term it looks mainly unsettled, drier the further SE one heads...

Not great ,especially those in the NW who have had flooding issues already.. 

[damianslaw]

54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking like a dry Bonfire night for many with perhaps the Atlantic moving in later in the day ...more so for Western areas perhaps ..

Longer term it looks mainly unsettled, drier the further SE one heads...

Not great ,especially those in the NW who have had flooding issues already.. 

Could do with a drying up here, thankfully Tuesday to Friday looking mostly dry and fine which will help before a return to unsettled but this much more fluid so we shouldn't hopefully see the misery of this week. Longer term unclear but still definate sign for something colder with NW airstream more predominant as we head into mid month period.

[Frosty.]

The 6z op was not without interest! …I love cold eye candy, even if it doesn’t verify, it gives me hope! …and it’s still autumn ..so no worries!   

Edited October 30, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Looking at the long term GEFS, let’s just say, I live in hope!…cold and unsettled would suit me sir!!!..and that’s BEFORE winter starts!  

Edited October 30, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

OMG..P11 GEFS 6z.. please god..please, I promise to be a good boy!   ️  

 

Edited October 30, 2021 by jon snow

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, jon snow said:

OMG..P11 GEFS 6z.. please god..please, I promise to be a good boy!   ️  

 

I’m very much liking that pert and bringing heavy snowfall with it

[Frosty.]

And there’s more, come here!… (good old Jimmy cricket)…the GEFS 6z has lots of hidden treasures! ️  

Edited October 30, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Well, isn't today's GFS 06Z operational run full of amplification; it's here, it's there, it's everywhere? Except for quite where we'd want it to be, of course. There are still five weeks of autumn left yet, though. Tally ho!

    

    

    

But it's nae my fault if the ensembles are still misbehaving!

  

[Eagle Eye]

Why does everything good for at least 1 part of Britian have to come past 250 hours?

 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Why does everything good for at least 1 part of Britian have to come past 250 hours?

 

Twas ever thus and forever thus shall be..did I really just say that?!  

Edited October 30, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 0z?….nah, I’m not surprised!!!   

 

 

[swfc]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

3 hours ago, jon snow said:

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 0z?….nah, I’m not surprised!!!  

 

 

 

Not great is it tbh most runs on gfs seem to bring a decent atlantic block with a decent set of 850s etc. Problem is its always at the end of the runs . 

[Bradley in Kent]

Good evening all, 

It really does seem the most seasonal weather is always at the end of a run with a chasing rainbow scenario.

My take is because when running, a model will create a frame based on the frame beforehand, and the further it goes synoptic movements snowball going off on a massive trajectory. The result: frames getting less and less realistic with belting blowtorches in summer and almighty blocking in winter, neither of which happen that often! 

 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps 

Hope you are all well. I have not posted on here for a while now but here I am and my chase for snow is on.

Just had a read of Gav’s seasonal model 2nd round up which was done today and I must admit it has put me into a downbeat mode. Most of the seasonal models he mentioned today are going for a mild to milder than average winter, except for a few which have got some northern blocking ie the Beijing  climate centre model is going for some northern blocking but only slightly.

However I suspect this needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, and there may be a swing to colder when the next roundup is done at the end of November.

I don’t think anything out of the ordinary is showing yet on the models except for some chillier days and frost and fog replaced by wetter weather at times.

I really hope the pieces of the jigsaw fall in place and we at least get a weeks worth of snow and cold this season.

There is a long ride ahead .

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND HAS STARTED

Stay safe all

regards  

[Cambrian]

The ECM is currently being more consistent than the GFS and GEM. The 12z op is sticking with the same general theme as it has had on recent runs, with days 8-10 showing a complex low near Iceland on the 7th, moving slowly southeast and deepening on the 8th, and beginning to pull some colder air around its western flank towards the UK and Ireland by the 9th.
192h / 216h / 240h

  
 

This evolution has the same idea of a diving trough formed by a NW-SE oriented jet stream from Greenland to the UK, which for many days now we’ve been looking to see become established sometime in November, to bring a more lengthy, rather cold, unsettled pattern our way. It doesn’t look like a case of if, more a case of when.