model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[booferking]

Would quite happily take JMA future outlook early start to winter.

[Mike Poole]

The ECM clusters at T192-T240 for the 12z runs:

Well all of them offer some kind of northerly at some point.  But my interest is in cluster 3 (11 members).  As I’ve been talking about in the run up to winter thread, a 4 wave pattern with a high over the pole going into winter is a possibility, and total gridlock in the NH as a result.  Jackpot repeater! And you can see it here on cluster 3, admittedly not on full NH view like you get on Meteociel but all 3 charts (T192, T216, T240) have those 5 red patches like on a dice, and they aren’t moving are they?  You see it on models (11/51) and it is easier to believe it happening.

The start of something???  We will see…

Edited October 25, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The ECM clusters at T192-T240 for the 12z runs:

Well all of them offer some kind of northerly at some point.  But my interest is in cluster 3 (11 members).  As I’ve been talking about in the run up to winter thread, a 4 wave pattern with a high over the pole is a possibility.  And you can see it here on cluster 3, admittedly not on full NH view like you get on Meteociel but all 3 charts (T192, T216, T240) have those 5 red patches like on a dice, and they aren’t moving are they?  

The start of something???  We will see…

Just posted latest zonal chart in the other thread, not seeing a ragging PV in December... Yet

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Griff said:

Just posted latest zonal chart in the other thread, not seeing a ragging PV in December... Yet

Anything but, in my view.

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Anything but, in my view.

I'm not very good at my attempted reverse psychology (no poker face here), but at the very least no compelling charts otherwise

(If I say it, it won't happen, guaranteed ) 

[Newberryone]

Today’s 12z Ecm by day 10 doesn’t appear to hold out much promise of a continuation of any northwest/southeast trajectory airflow. All seemed fine in this respect up to day 8 but days 9 and 10 seem to suggest the high possibly taking up residence to the south with the jet stream being pushed back further north 

Edited October 25, 2021 by Newberryone

[Mike Poole]

GFS T174, and again the hints of establishing a 4 wave pattern over the NH (I know Ive been going on about it):

It doesn’t matter to me that the northerly doesn’t hit on this run, the bigger picture is more important.  Good position for a ridge into Greenland, a proper one, has been seen on a fair few model runs now but doesn’t make it,  Prediction; one op run will make it tomorrow.  

I would post this T240:

In fact I just have done but by this stage the run has deviated from what I’m anticipating so, northerly, yes of course but it is FI - the period T180-ish is key for me at the moment, do we get the 4 wave pattern or not?  

Edited October 25, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

They’ll be some happy cold lovers this morning, great GFS run stays cold after the initial Northerly  and FI is about to unleash nationwide snow possibilities!! Best run yet. 

 

Adding these too the mix make this morning Gfs even more possible, a cold or very cold Nov and Dec certainly possible.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Ali1977

[Frigid]

First 10 days are looking noticeably cold with most ensembles near the -5c mark. It's not often we see cold starts to November. You love to see it

[bluearmy]

wouldn’t throw this day 10 profile for early November out of bed ……
 

[Methuselah]

Well, folks, another day, another GFS 00Z run. And what a difference a day makes? Does front-loaded winter beckon? Perhaps it does:

    

    

    

But, if a front-loaded winter is in the offing, I hope it holds off until the sun sinks lower in the sky?

[Eagle Eye]

Like others have said the run this morning is definitly something for the cold lovers

The low on today's run holds off the high just long enough for the undercut to happen. This undercut as it were also happened it 1962 as I mentioned before. 

The undercut that happened in 1962 allowed the cold to last just under a month, so the later it begins now quite possibly the better the chance of some snow 

2009-10 also lasted for about a month with that undercut. 

Should this last into December then we could have a decent split PV. 

We can see an interesting setup on the anomalies, a slow moving low connecting up with other low anomaly over Siberia. 

This one best shows the undercut which could be able to stall the high anomaly long enough for the thread of colder anomalies to pull down towards Britian. 

Xander 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Anthony Burden]

Good Morning all,GFS/ECM firming up on a colder outlook for the beginning of November,

more seasonal outlook and who knows the start of an exciting winter for all cold lovers.

[Cambrian]

There’s been a discernible firming up for a sustained chilly and unsettled spell across the GFS ensemble members, control and operational. I’ve been looking at the time around day 11/12 to get a feel for the longer term trend, comparing the panel members from 12z yesterday at 288h with the 0z today at 276h, for the 6th November. 

Forgiving some subjectivity on the close calls:

12z yesterday had 10 members bringing the trough through the UK to the south; 5 with the base of the trough crossing the UK, plus the control; 5 with the trough to the east with UK under high pressure, plus the operational. All in all, quite divided, it looked like it was having a bit of a wobble. 

 

0z today again has 10 members bringing the trough through the UK to the south, but this time plus the control and the operational; 6 with the base of the trough crossing the UK; 4 with the trough to the east with UK under high pressure.

 

So the high pressure is typically held back further west on the 0z and the “casting votes” have switched to keeping us under the trough with winds from a northerly quadrant into day 12 and beyond - without doubt an interesting setup for early November. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Do I detect talk of a colder snap in here! 

Moving into November,possibly those temperatures falling away!

Surely to God not the beginning of a December 2010!! Late November is when that party got truelly started!

I'm not going to compare with previous episodes in years gone by,as each and every year as the potential to be unique in its own rights.

But my confidence is building just that bit more of something more seasonal this year!

Heights to the NW from last nights EC46 are becoming clearly evident as we move into the new month....baby steps and all of that!

And no toy throwing this year folks...remember the lorry Driver shortages! Its gonna be a git to replace them

Oh and kudos to you lot...some of you are learning to quickly with your unbelievable informative posts!  

Have a great week guys and gals.

[booferking]

Latter stages Arctic flood gates about to open.

[Methuselah]

Things are now starting to look good for an early attack from the North. (if the GFS 06Z operational run is anywhere near correct!)

    

That said, it's now a waiting game. So over tae you, Wollyum:   

 

[johnholmes]

caution!

It is 2 weeks away and where is the low coming out of Canada going to go. I'd suggest south of Greenland, although I have not looked at this particular run to track its path over the previous 72 hours say?

 

[carinthian]

Quite a few on here will like this winter overview chart below shown on the latest GFS run. Not very often you get a cold Bonfire Night in blighty, This picture shows a cold pool over the British Isles and possibilty of some places seeing their first snow flake of the season.  Anyway, I am liking it for whats in store for the Alps in the longer term.

C

Edited October 26, 2021 by carinthian

[Cambrian]

The important upstream combination discussed last week is evident again on the 6z GFS operational run.

Aleutian low, west Canada high, deep central north Canada trough sending warm upper air into western Greenland all present and correct at 120h @damianslaw, thank you for the pointers.

 

And again at 180h

 

The west Canada high / central north Canada trough pattern is displaced (pushed east) at 240h, the trough being pushed into Hudson Bay, but the colder air hangs on here, the setup for a potential touch of wintry weather as pointed out above by @carinthian

 

and through to 300h

 

And despite it going flatter through Canada by the end of the run with a low forming over the eastern seaboard, enough of the pattern is held in place over Greenland for a reload, colder air pooling there ready to come southeast with no sign of a European high any time soon and a lucky rabbit’s foot for the UK and Ireland. 

 

 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

caution!

It is 2 weeks away and where is the low coming out of Canada going to go. I'd suggest south of Greenland, although I have not looked at this particular run to track its path over the previous 72 hours say?

 

Having finally had time to look at the 06 output, it is nothing like the 00 run, so which MIGHT be nearer the actual chart. Well we have to wait, not quite for 320 hours but for several days to check what GFS suggests in subsequent runs. It is not a bad idea, and used by professionals, at long time lengths, not to compare one run with the next, but like with like. It does usually give a far more stable outcome. From about 144 hours then the input of the latest data does start to make checking run to run increasingly more accurate than at +168 up wards.

I'll post the latest ideas from the 500 mb charts but at 14 days the furthest they go they are not even in the start time of 300+ the post I referred to involves.

Edited October 26, 2021 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

Tuesday 26 october and a look at the 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec quite a change in a week to now show a marked trough over/just e of the UK. The charts have slowly moved to this from the one above for Wed 20th (not shown here) the contour height is quite low and the mid England contour comes from quite high latitudes, just s of the US Aleutian isles and over the n of the Gt lakes

Noaa has mostly been fairly similar to the ec output (not sure what happened to my copy of 20 Oct, in the same period, both are now more meridional than at times a few days ago but they are both quite consistent in the developing pattern over the last 7 days. Again the NOAA chart has a below average, I believe, contours over the UK and again from fairly northern altitudes.

In spite of UK Met predicting above or near average temperatures, I would have thought, based on these charts, at or somewhat below for most areas. How unsettled is not easy to see but perhaps less settled than unsettled sums it up. NW-SE split in terms of rain and gales, with the SE drier and light winds at times. The 8-14 does not suggest a major change within the 14 day time scale but best to watch the next 3-4 days for confirmation or otherwise!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Methuselah]

Well, I only ever look at individual model runs with the Met Office's monthly forecast in mind -- they do, after all, know far more than I ever will. But, anyway, here are the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles for Cambridgeshire:

    

[damianslaw]

34 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Tuesday 26 october and a look at the 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec quite a change in a week to now show a marked trough over/just e of the UK. The charts have slowly moved to this from the one above for Wed 20th (not shown here) the contour height is quite low and the mid England contour comes from quite high latitudes, just s of the US Aleutian isles and over the n of the Gt lakes

Noaa has mostly been fairly similar to the ec output (not sure what happened to my copy of 20 Oct, in the same period, both are now more meridional than at times a few days ago but they are both quite consistent in the developing pattern over the last 7 days. Again the NOAA chart has a below average, I believe, contours over the UK and again from fairly northern altitudes.

In spite of UK Met predicting above or near average temperatures, I would have thought, based on these charts, at or somewhat below for most areas. How unsettled is not easy to see but perhaps less settled than unsettled sums it up. NW-SE split in terms of rain and gales, with the SE drier and light winds at times. The 8-14 does not suggest a major change within the 14 day time scale but best to watch the next 3-4 days for confirmation or otherwise!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Good post. Met Office on catch up I feel.. as it always is.. expect changes in text message to average temps at least, but if current models verify they will be below early November average, but the Met office hardly ever says below even when it is happening. 

[Anthony Burden]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I only ever look at individual model runs with the Met Office's monthly forecast in mind -- they do, after all, know far more than I ever will. But, anyway, here are the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles for Cambridgeshire:

    

Hi just a quick comment,Met office changing its thoughts on a average to slightly above to slightly below average to average/first half November. Nothing in weather written in stone.